ICYMI - Blair #1 On This Week's Prospect Hot Sheet

jimsnores said:
Not bad. The three of them seem really promising, with pretty high floors. The only thing missing from the respective ceilings of the two position guys is elite power. Unfortunately, it does seem to be missing from the whole organization. I guess Davidson and Riley might have it in their ceilings, but it sure ain't in their floors.
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This floor ceiling business is silly at times. I wonder what people thought Wade Boggs' ceiling might be. Not much power. No speed. Not an elite defender. But certainly an inner circle Hall of Famer.
 
nsacpi said:
This floor ceiling business is silly at times. I wonder what people thought Wade Boggs' ceiling might be. Not much power. No speed. Not an elite defender. But certainly an inner circle Hall of Famer.
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I was speaking from a tools standpoint. Clearly the Braves need power. I am really excited about Swanson and Albies, and have been since they respectively became Braves. I do consider them "can't miss" players. If I am wrong, I will be sorely disappointed. I can't really think of any pitcher as can't miss, mostly because of the high incidence of injuries, but Blair seems a pretty safe bet to be a respectable top half of the rotation guy if he does stay healthy. I do really wish for more power, though. How many games this year have the Braves outhit the opposition, but lost, often because of homers by the other team, versus singles by the Braves. Of course, that's not as maddening as defensive lapses and other blunders.
 
Speaking of a lack of power...32 players have out-homered the entire Braves roster, which has hit a grand total of 3. No other team has hit less than 7 HRs. They are the only team with a SLG% under .300, and the only team with an OPS under .600. In short, they are absolutely awful offensively.

It is no secret the Braves need to add a couple impact hitters quickly if they hope to compete by 2017/2018. Guys like Mallex, Swanson and Albies may end up being good players, but they won't help much in the power department.
 
Enscheff said:
Speaking of a lack of power...32 players have out-homered the entire Braves roster, which has hit a grand total of 3. No other team has hit less than 7 HRs. They are the only team with a SLG% under .300, and the only team with an OPS under .600. In short, they are absolutely awful offensively.

It is no secret the Braves need to add a couple impact hitters quickly if they hope to compete by 2017/2018. Guys like Mallex, Swanson and Albies may end up being good players, but they won't help much in the power department.
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The OPS and SLG #'s are shockingly bad, even for this team. I have to think they'll be improving, but the dearth of power is pretty apparent in its ugliness.
 
At the risk of being confused with the "low strikeout/weak contact" crowd from last year, my belief is you win with good players. It is possible to construct a very good team that has little power. Just as it is possible to have a very good team that strikes out a lot.

The question for me is whether we have enough good players in our system.

Here is my list of guys who already are good or likely to be good: Freeman, Inciarte, Albies, Swanson, Acuna.

Is that enough? What about the other three spots in the lineup? Can we get by with three spots that are close to replacement level? My answer is that it is almost enough. I would like one more player (or platoon combination) who is significantly above replacement level. Maybe we will get that player in the draft or international market. Then you have a timing issue. By the time that player is ready, Inciarte or Freeman might be gone or in decline. Ideally we add one more player who is major league ready or close that we can count on. We will have some payroll to play with.
 
nsacpi said:
Is that enough? What about the other three spots in the lineup? Can we get by with three spots that are close to replacement level? My answer is that it is almost enough.
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Good enough to compete for a playoff spot sure, not good enough to get to WS and win them really. Either need good hitters across the board or some guys with serious pop to mix with the replacement level guys in order to do that.
 
nsacpi said:
At the risk of being confused with the "low strikeout/weak contact" crowd from last year, my belief is you win with good players. It is possible to construct a very good team that has little power. Just as it is possible to have a very good team that strikes out a lot.

The question for me is whether we have enough good players in our system.

Here is my list of guys who already are good or likely to be good: Freeman, Inciarte, Albies, Swanson, Acuna.

Is that enough? What about the other three spots in the lineup? Can we get by with three spots that are close to replacement level? My answer is that it is almost enough. I would like one more player (or platoon combination) who is significantly above replacement level. Maybe we will get that player in the draft or international market. Then you have a timing issue. By the time that player is ready, Inciarte or Freeman might be gone or in decline. Ideally we add one more player who is major league ready or close that we can count on. We will have some payroll to play with.
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But that's where platooning and finding a few guys who are strong support level guys who may not have the stuff to be impact guys figures in. I've always thought that you need at least one and probably two top-drawer offensive players to be serious contenders. Once those guys are in place, you can slot guys in behind them. And power is available, you just have to be careful with the contracts. I don't think much of a guy like Brandon Moss (but I can't think of anyone in that same mold off the top of my head right now), but he can play LF and 1B, hits LH, and has some serious power. You find guys like him, have a good 4th OF so you can sit him late, and go from there. Of course, that takes a manager with a solid tactical sense and I'm not saying Fredi does or doesn't have that, but if you are going to try to have a synergistic line-up, you have to put everyone in a position to succeed. For whatever foibles he had, Cox was pretty good at that.
 
Nonsense. He was the village idiot. He was as dumb as Fredi. It was only after he retired that any redeeming qualities or skills were recognized.
 
nsacpi said:
At the risk of being confused with the "low strikeout/weak contact" crowd from last year, my belief is you win with good players. It is possible to construct a very good team that has little power. Just as it is possible to have a very good team that strikes out a lot.

The question for me is whether we have enough good players in our system.

Here is my list of guys who already are good or likely to be good: Freeman, Inciarte, Albies, Swanson, Acuna.

Is that enough? What about the other three spots in the lineup? Can we get by with three spots that are close to replacement level? My answer is that it is almost enough. I would like one more player (or platoon combination) who is significantly above replacement level. Maybe we will get that player in the draft or international market. Then you have a timing issue. By the time that player is ready, Inciarte or Freeman might be gone or in decline. Ideally we add one more player who is major league ready or close that we can count on. We will have some payroll to play with.
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Interesting question. I think when you're going without power, you'd better be deep. You can't win with three replacement level players. That's tough enough to overcome with a murderers row, impossible with the type of guys we seem to develop.

I think about the '85 Cardinals plus or minus several years. They had everything but power and no waste in the lineup. Ozzie, Herr, Obie, Porter/Pagnozzi, McGee, Coleman...only power was Jack Clark. But they fielded well, ran and ran, pitched their ass off with Tudor, Andujar, et al.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Interesting question. I think when you're going without power, you'd better be deep. You can't win with three replacement level players. That's tough enough to overcome with a murderers row, impossible with the type of guys we seem to develop.

I think about the '85 Cardinals plus or minus several years. They had everything but power and no waste in the lineup. Ozzie, Herr, Obie, Porter/Pagnozzi, McGee, Coleman...only power was Jack Clark. But they fielded well, ran and ran, pitched their ass off with Tudor, Andujar, et al.
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I think there will be window where we will have a very good team. But there is some risk we won't due to injuries, early decline, etc. Some have presented the rebuild as a sure formula for a championship. Aint no such thing as a sure thing. In baseball or life.
 
nsacpi said:
I think there will be window where we will have a very good team. But there is some risk we won't due to injuries, early decline, etc. Some have presented the rebuild as a sure formula for a championship. Aint no such thing as a sure thing. In baseball or life.
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Yeah, there's a tendency to act as if we've pushed the "play" button and now we're just gonna watch a bunch of 95-win seasons unfold.

There's a long way to go and a lot of tough decisions between here and there. There's no guarantee we even get to the mythical "there."
 
nsacpi said:
I think there will be window where we will have a very good team. But there is some risk we won't due to injuries, early decline, etc. Some have presented the rebuild as a sure formula for a championship. Aint no such thing as a sure thing. In baseball or life.
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Very true, but that is the reason that most of us want to see us get power hitters to mix with our good hitters. It's difficult to win a WS period, so you need to balance your team to give yourself the best chance possible. Your idea that we can win with a team full of good hitters without much power simply isn't a super realistic option based on baseball history. Maybe 4-5 teams in the past 50-60 years have pulled off a WS team without having a couple 20 HR guys. No reason to try and win with a handicap. You can cover for those replacement level guys much more easily with a couple 25+ HR guys in the lineup.
 
nsacpi said:
Here is my list of guys who already are good or likely to be good: Freeman, Inciarte, Albies, Swanson, Acuna.

Is that enough?
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If they were all on the MLB at the same time during their prime, maybe. Problem is by the time the young guys are seriously contributing in a major way freeman and Inciarte will be declining.

The Braves need to import some offensive talent, and it really isn't debatable.
 
Enscheff said:
If they were all on the MLB at the same time during their prime, maybe. Problem is by the time the young guys are seriously contributing in a major way freeman and Inciarte will be declining.

The Braves need to import some offensive talent, and it really isn't debatable.
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So do we trade Freeman and Inciarte and wait for as yet to be conceived Braves to develop
 
nsacpi said:
This floor ceiling business is silly at times. I wonder what people thought Wade Boggs' ceiling might be. Not much power. No speed. Not an elite defender. But certainly an inner circle Hall of Famer.
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What if Wade Boggs was thought to have a really high ceiling? Would it still be silly?
 
nsacpi said:
So do we trade Freeman and Inciarte and wait for as yet to be conceived Braves to develop
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No, they should add when and where it makes sense. Cervelli makes sense. Cespedes makes sense depending on price. Freese or Prado make sense. A Braun trade makes sense.

All of those moves could be made this upcoming offseason and those veterans would make a nice bridge between the current good players and the future good players.
 
smootness said:
What if Wade Boggs was thought to have a really high ceiling? Would it still be silly?
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There are other inner circle Hall of Famers who were too small, not enough power, low ceiling guys. Joe Morgan for example. Ricky Henderson. Ozzie Smith.

Just this past season, we had Jose Altuve make the top 10 in MVP voting.
 
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