- STARTS TODAY AT 7PM - 2016 June Amateur Draft Discussion

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auyushu said:
Yep, 2018 was always the realistic goal for competing. We should be pretty interesting to watch about the middle of next year, but we'd have to be pretty lucky to be a .500 team next season as well. Hopefully we hold on to our money outside of spending on a FA catcher like Cervelli this offseason and then spend in the 2018 class and go in strong for that season.
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The big flaw in the 2017 plan is that the free agent class that year is ****. As much as I typically loathe free agency I dont want to trade any prospects for proven players either. If it was up to me I would look to bring in 2 premium players from free agency. Strasburg and Harper. They will probably want Opt outs after 3 years. I would sign them then let them opt out in 3 years.
 
cajunrevenge said:
The big flaw in the 2017 plan is that the free agent class that year is ****. As much as I typically loathe free agency I dont want to trade any prospects for proven players either. If it was up to me I would look to bring in 2 premium players from free agency. Strasburg and Harper. They will probably want Opt outs after 3 years. I would sign them then let them opt out in 3 years.
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We will have the option of trading for players on contracts with little or no surplus value. The advantage of this approach is you don't have to give back much in return.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
But they will be 17 next year.. I have no idea when their birthday is... but they will be 17 this year (at some point) if not mistaken..
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I'm pretty sure they're a year behind the kids who will graduate HS in 2017. Even if they turn 17 at some point this year, it won't be until at least the summer, and most kids turn 18 before they graduate HS.
 
Russ2dollas said:
When the dodgers took all of those guys from the Red Socks.
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That's an even better example.

Russell Martin has a backloaded contract with the Blue Jays that might well be regarded as having negative surplus value after this season. Depending on the direction the Blue Jays take for 2017 and beyond they might be looking to dump that contract or even pay part of the salary. Ditto for McCann and the Yankees. We might be better off trading for one of those two than chasing Cervelli or Wieters on the open market.
 
Enscheff said:
Let's just assume that the BA rankings are how every team on the board has the players ranked, and let's further assume that each player is "worth" the associated draft slot for that ranking. Finally, for simplicity, let's only talk about the money the Braves have for picks 3, 40 and 44 plus the 5% they can go over without any non-monetary penalty...a total value of right around $10m.

Lewis is a college guy who "should" be available under slot, and as the #8 ranked guy "should" cost $3.6M to sign. Last year, top college guys like Swanson and Bregman signed for $2m-$2.5m under slot. The slot value for the #3 pick this year is $6.5m, so let's peg Lewis at $4m to sign.

The Braves should also be able to draft a college senior at 44 under the slot value of $1.4m to save another few hundred thousand. That leaves the Braves with $4.5m-$5m to throw at the #40 pick. According to the draft slot values, that is enough cash to sign another top-5 talent.

So here's how it could be played for a high school guy like Josh Lowe (just an example):

He is currently ranked #11, with an assigned pool slot of $3.3m. If he follows the Daz Cameron script and tells teams he will go to college unless someone offers him $5m, no team that picks after #4 will have a slot value high enough to sign him. Since no team will draft a high school player ranked #11 in the top 5, he will drop. Then the Braves scoop him up at #40, and throw all their remaining draft bonus at him to sign him over slot.

With that strategy the Braves sign the #8 and #11 players in the draft. College guy under slot with the early pick, high school guy over slot with the later pick.
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Just to expand on this - assuming we're willing to pay the penalty for going 5% above our allotted pool money (which keeps you from having to give up draft picks) - you could even go significantly over slot with both picks at #40 and #43 (if you're willing to pass on signing guys picked in rounds 9 & 10). Just for fun, let's assume we're going to get one of Groome, Pint, or Puk at #3.

Pick 1.03 (3) - Pitcher (Slot Value - $6,510,800) - Actual Bonus $5,000,000

Pick 1.40 (40) - Lewis (Slot Value - $1,616,800) - Actual Bonus - $3,500,000

Pick 2.03 (43) - Carter Kieboom (Slot Value - $1,459,700) - Actual Bonus - $2,500,000

Pick 3.03 (80) - Matt Thaiss (Slot Value - $788,800) - Actual Bonus - $788,800

Pick 4.03 (109) - ??? (Slot Value - $546,800) - Actual Bonus - $546,800

Pick 5.03 (139) - ??? (Slot Value - $409,600) - Actual Bonus - $315,000

Pick 6.03 (169) - ??? (Slot Value - $306,600) - Actual Bonus - $150,000

Pick 7.03 (199) - ??? (Slot Value - $229,700) - Actual Bonus $100,000

Pick 8.03 (229) - ??? (Slot Value - $184,100) - Actual Bonus - $100,000

That's a total of $13,000,600 spent on the first 8 picks - just under the $13,004,250 limit of 5% over our allotment.
 
clvclv said:
Just to expand on this - assuming we're willing to pay the penalty for going 5% above our allotted pool money (which keeps you from having to give up draft picks) - you could even go significantly over slot with both picks at #40 and #43 (if you're willing to pass on signing guys picked in rounds 9 & 10). Just for fun, let's assume we're going to get one of Groome, Pint, or Puk at #3.

Pick 1.03 (3) - Pitcher (Slot Value - $6,510,800) - Actual Bonus $5,000,000
Pick 1.40 (40) - Lewis (Slot Value - $1,616,800) - Actual Bonus - $3,500,000
Pick 2.03 (43) - Carter Kieboom (Slot Value - $1,459,700) - Actual Bonus - $2,500,000
Pick 3.03 (80) - Matt Thaiss (Slot Value - $788,800) - Actual Bonus - $788,800
Pick 4.03 (109) - ??? (Slot Value - $546,800) - Actual Bonus - $546,800
Pick 5.03 (139) - ??? (Slot Value - $409,600) - Actual Bonus - $315,000
Pick 6.03 (169) - ??? (Slot Value - $306,600) - Actual Bonus - $150,000
Pick 7.03 (199) - ??? (Slot Value - $229,700) - Actual Bonus $100,000
Pick 8.03 (229) - ??? (Slot Value - $184,100) - Actual Bonus - $100,000

That's a total of $13,000,600 spent on the first 8 picks - just under the $13,004,250 limit of 5% over our allotment.
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you don't think another team would sign Lewis at 3.5 million?
 
nsacpi said:
That's an even better example.

Russell Martin has a backloaded contract with the Blue Jays that might well be regarded as having negative surplus value after this season. Depending on the direction the Blue Jays take for 2017 and beyond they might be looking to dump that contract or even pay part of the salary. Ditto for McCann and the Yankees. We might be better off trading for one of those two than chasing Cervelli or Wieters on the open market.
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Jenkins and Markakis for Mac and $6 million (half the difference in Mac and Nick's salaries) or several international draft slots might just make a helluva lot of sense for both sides this winter. The Yankees get a bat to replace Beltran and an MLB-ready SP

RF- Inciarte, 2B- Swanson, 1B- Freeman, C- Mac, LF- Garcia, 3B- Ruiz, SS- Albies, CF- Mallex wouldn't look bad at all.
 
cajunrevenge said:
The big flaw in the 2017 plan is that the free agent class that year is ****. As much as I typically loathe free agency I dont want to trade any prospects for proven players either. If it was up to me I would look to bring in 2 premium players from free agency. Strasburg and Harper. They will probably want Opt outs after 3 years. I would sign them then let them opt out in 3 years.
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While the FA class is pretty poor, there are absolutely players that could immediately help the Braves. Cervelli, Cespedes, Freese and Prado would all fit nicely on this team.

As far as trades go, I could see the Braves getting Braun from the Brewers. He's owed about 4/80 through his age 36 season with an option for his age 37 season.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
you don't think another team would sign Lewis at 3.5 million?
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Never know - he doesn't have quite the upside of a Daz Cameron (IMO), and I thought surely someone would've paid Cameron before he slid that far last year. If you consider the fact that the only teams with more money to spend than we have are the Reds, Phillies, and Padres and both Philadelphia and Cincy are already loaded with OF prospects it seems at least plausible to me.
 
Enscheff said:
While the FA class is pretty poor, there are absolutely players that could immediately help the Braves. Cervelli, Cespedes, Freese and Prado would all fit nicely on this team.

As far as trades go, I could see the Braves getting Braun from the Brewers. He's owed about 4/80 through his age 36 season with an option for his age 37 season.
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And Cespedes or Braun would fit REALLY nicely between Freddie and Mac in that lineup I posted above - making Garcia a really nice option as a right-handed option off the bench who could play LF, 3B, or 1B. Sign a mid-level LHP veteran like Jaime Garcia to deepen the rotation, and you're suddenly pretty relevant.
 
Enscheff said:
While the FA class is pretty poor, there are absolutely players that could immediately help the Braves. Cervelli, Cespedes, Freese and Prado would all fit nicely on this team.

As far as trades go, I could see the Braves getting Braun from the Brewers. He's owed about 4/80 through his age 36 season with an option for his age 37 season.
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There are people speculating that the 2018 free agent class could have some movement over the winter too. Teams would be in a Heyward situation with some of those guys and might ship them off if they can't/won't sign and extension.

Braun makes sense to me if we get him for free with that contract. I had thought that a Braun and Lucroy package might make sense for us. Braun would lower the return for Lucroy to something we might stomach for older guys and Lucroy likely to go from cheap to expensive in a year.
 
nsacpi said:
That's an even better example.

Russell Martin has a backloaded contract with the Blue Jays that might well be regarded as having negative surplus value after this season. Depending on the direction the Blue Jays take for 2017 and beyond they might be looking to dump that contract or even pay part of the salary. Ditto for McCann and the Yankees. We might be better off trading for one of those two than chasing Cervelli or Wieters on the open market.
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Choo is a guy I thought about. Texas has some hitting talent. Choo is bad and owed a lot of money. How much money would you take on to get a top 10 Rangers talent?

What about Sandoval? If we got a hitting stud from Boston how much of Pablo would you be willing to play at 3B? I like this one b/c I find it hard to believe that the Braves would be lucky enough for Ruiz to really be a legit option at 22 after his previous year struggles. Maybe one more year would do him good. Would Boston give up a big time OF for freeing up that salary?
 
Russ2dollas said:
Choo is a guy I thought about. Texas has some hitting talent. Choo is bad and owed a lot of money. How much money would you take on to get a top 10 Rangers talent?

What about Sandoval? If we got a hitting stud from Boston how much of Pablo would you be willing to play at 3B? I like this one b/c I find it hard to believe that the Braves would be lucky enough for Ruiz to really be a legit option at 22 after his previous year struggles. Maybe one more year would do him good. Would Boston give up a big time OF for freeing up that salary?
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Absolutely nothing personally. He's exactly the type of player you DON'T want around the kids - out of shape, already has his money, and no longer gives a ****. Much better off platooning Ruiz and Adonis over there if need be.
 
clvclv said:
Absolutely nothing personally. He's exactly the type of player you DON'T want around the kids - out of shape, already has his money, and no longer gives a ****. Much better off platooning Ruiz and Adonis over there if need be.
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He was good a coup,evyears ago. Plus u could move him or cut him.

It's basically like the touki deal. U buy a prospect by taking bad deal
 
Russ2dollas said:
He was good a coup,evyears ago. Plus u could move him or cut him.

It's basically like the touki deal. U buy a prospect by taking bad deal
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Not even close to the touki deal, that was one year of contract. Panda is one of the worst deals in baseball, he's signed through 2019 at almost 20 mil a season including the buyout for 2020. No way in hell you could move him.

That being said, I might do it if they were sending us Andrew Benintendi, but that's about it.
 
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