How old does he look to her
Hector Olivera Arrested
- Thread starter striker42
- Start date
How old does he look to her
But in actual major league games last year, his performance was pretty decent. Regardless of what you think of his swing, he did in fact show some decent production. So saying he's a AAA player is hardly accurate.
His future certainly doesn't look promising at this point however. I think the likelihood of him being reinstated anytime soon is low. And he's already missed so much time the last 3 years.
I mean it's kinda splitting hairs but he had a 97 WRC+ with poor defense in right for a -0.1 WAR in 24 games. Hardly any kind of sample size to mean anything but those are by definition replacement level numbers.
I was talking about offensively. For a rookie, he held his own very well. Small sample size obviously and he didn't exactly light the world on fire, but he didn't fall flat on his face either.
striker42
Well-known member
Closer to 35 than to 30.
He had rookie status but he's not a rookie. These type of players are signed and expected to contribute almost immediately. I mean in the end it doesn't matter but he wasn't a middle of the order hitter like the FO tried to hype him up to be.
striker42
Well-known member
Look at his quality of contact stats last year on fangraphs. 32.4% soft with only 16.2% hard hit. For context, any soft % over 25 is "awful". Same for any hard % under 20. So he hit way to many weak balls and way too few hard.
Those numbers were even worse this year. It also matches what you see when you watch him. Lots of weakly hit balls.
His age doesn't really matter. He's never played at this level before. There should be an adjustment period for any player, regardless of age.
You're still talking about 100 plate appearances here. 80 last season and about 20 at bats this year. Fact is there is simply not enough major league data to make assumptions about his actual ability. No one on this team has been hitting aside from Nick the Stick this year. Drawing conclusions from 20 at bats this season is silly.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The FO should consider giving HO a chance to get 300 or so ABs in AAA before making a decision on how to dispose of him. I know it is not the #BravesWay to do this with disgraced players who show questionable makeup. But folks in the south like the whole fallen sinner/redemption thing. I don't see doing something like that as damaging the Braves standing as a #goldstandard organization.
striker42
Well-known member
Drawing conclusions that he'll never hit would be silly. However, drawing conclusions that he wont hit unless he straightens some serious issues out isn't silly.
I've kept a close eye on Olivera. I thought it was ridiculous to trade for him and wanted to see what the Braves saw in this guy. What I've seen hasn't been pretty.
Olivera has a bad bat wrap. When the pitch is delivered the top of his bat is pointed at the pitcher. This adds completely unnecessary length to his swing. This isn't a fatal flaw as there are guys who hit even with a bat wrap. However, in order to overcome this you have to have exceptional bat speed. Olivera had exceptional bat speed when he played for the Cuban National Team. However, that was several years and several injuries ago. The player we have now doesn't have exceptional bat speed. This was to be expected. When players hit their early 30's they often see their bats slow. Uggla is a perfect example of this.
So, with his long swing and slowing bat, Olivera started struggling with issues many have struggled with before him. If he waits long enough to recognize the pitch he's going to struggle catching up to it. This results in a lot of pop ups. If starts "cheating" and starts his swing earlier, he gets fooled by more pitches leading to weak ground balls. We've seen way too many pop ups and weak ground balls from Olivera.
What you see when you watch him is backed up by stats. He's made way too little solid contact.
Olivera's one saving grace last year was his ability to make contact. Olivera's calling card has always been the ability to get his bat on the ball. While he hasn't gotten his bat on the ball with much authority, last year he wasn't striking out much. A 13.8% K rate is quite good. The fact that he put so many balls in play allowed his overall numbers to be only slightly below average. He was striking out at a much higher rate this year but the sample size was really low.
All this being said, it's still possible Olivera isn't beyond all hope. The Braves had Seitzer working hard with Olivera to get him to ditch the bat wrap. Apparently he'd do that in practice and look good but fall back into bad habits in games. If Olivera can ditch the wrap, shorten his swing significantly, and still be comfortable enough to make contact, then he might be able to find some success here. However, if he keeps doing things as he has then he better pray for a miraculous return of his 26 year old self's bat speed.
striker42
Well-known member
Assuming we can't trade him (and I can't see any way that happens), this is what I'd probably do. First, I'd hire him a babysitter. Someone whose full time job it is to follow Olivera around and make sure he 1) stays out of trouble, and 2) doesn't negatively influence any of his teammates. I'd send Olivera to AAA and let him know that this it's a tryout. He has, as you suggested, 300 or so ABs to show he's worth the headache. Let him know that the team expects to see him make progress in overhauling his swing and start making consistent hard contact. I'd let him know that if he sets one toe out of line in any way, he's released and that the odds are long any other team would give him the time of day.
Essentially tell him he has one shot at redemption.
Of course, if there's a chance he could get deported for domestic violence then I'd probably be on board with throwing him under the bus. If he's kicked out of the country we likely can void his contract.
I'm not saying you're wrong that Olivera may have bad some bad swing mechanics that may keep him from being an effective hitter. Having some concerns is certainly understandable. But all your post about Olivera are basivally writing him off without giving him a chance.
And good players sometimes have funky swings. I have no idea how Kevin Youkilis ever made the majors, but he did and was an elite player for most of his career.
striker42
Well-known member
I'm willing to completely write off his chances at ever being the hitter he was sold to us as. I don't think there's a prayer of him being a guy who hits .310 with 20 HRs. He's not got the skills for that anymore. However, it's possible he could cobble things together enough to have a few years where he's somewhat successful. A .275 hitter with 10 HRs and a mid .700's OPS isn't a world beater but it's not completely useless. But I see this as unlikely.
And yes, guys with funky swings sometimes can be successful. Youkilis had a bizarre swing. However he also had an excellent eye which helped. But if you look at Youkilis' career you see that when he hit his early 30's things started to erode. He was 34 when he played his last game. I'm of the opinion that Olivera is in that decline right now.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I still think Youkilis was on the juice.
Julio3000
<B>A Chip Off the Old Rock</B>
FWIW, I thought so, too.
JxnMissFan
Gwinnett Bound
Whats the latest on Hector? I thought today was the end of his second suspension.
striker42
Well-known member
Today is the last day of the extended suspension. We might hear something today or tomorrow. The options are another extension of the leave (provided the union agrees), an announcement of discipline, or an announcement that they're doing nothing.
You are confusing swing mechanics with batting stance. Youkilis had a funky stance, but move himself into a hitting positon before he started his swing. That is different than a severe bat wrap that is not a good bat position.