sturg33
I
LOL... I think you might wanna go back and re-read the exchange.
Position players and WAR
- Thread starter zitothebrave
- Start date
LOL... I think you might wanna go back and re-read the exchange.
You should probably just stick to your tin foil hat club.
sturg33
I
So you believe in the "eye test" more than the data?
sturg33
I
You got me bro!
I think I explained that I believe the data which is used to calculate WAR over inflates the defensive impact of non defensive premium positions.
sturg33
I
So... you believe your eyes tell you he is not as valuable defensively as the data says.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
.9 WAR difference is 9 runs. not 18 essay. And if you're going the defensive route then hell yeah he's that muc hbetter in RF than Harper has been in LF.
And the 7 runs is more than the difference in wRAA. Which is a flawed statistic as well. ALL THE STATS ARE FLAWED IF YOU ARGUE ENOUGH!!
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Sorry you're just wrong. Sure there are certain situations where they aren't indicative at all. Like when you have a man amoungst Boys like Gardner when he played LF where he was clearly a far and away better OF who was pushed off his position that you can say UZR overvalues him. But the rightfielders in baseball are very athletic. Pence, Parra, Victorino, Werth, Bruce, Byrd, Ichiro, etc.
I use common sense along with the past performance of teams with defensive players at offensive premium position. Do you understand the formula?
Whether he is saving actual extra base hits or saving an extra base. It all adds up. Just like woba is created using linear weights so the defensive runs saved. Each action has an estimated value in runs. It adds up.
And according to fWAR Heyward has been 7 runs above average better than Harper this year. That's combing hitting, base running, and defense. He's 0.9 ahead of him in WAR due to the replacement level being factored in since Heyward has played more. Yes, I think Heyward has been that much better defensively to give him that edge over Harper. Heyward is arguably the best defensive RFer in the game and Harper is a avergish defender in left.
If catching a flyball in the RC gap that the average RFer doesn't catch is estimated to save 0.4 runs (made up number obviously), then when Heyward makes that play he saved 0.4 runs, period.
Obviously this compares one RF to another, but isn't that the entire point of all stats? Sure, if every team stuck 3 CFers in the OF Heyward's dWAR wouldn't be as high, but then his oWAR would go up because those defensive specialists would likely hit poorly.
Do you have the same issue with inflated oWAR numbers for offensive players at defensive premium positions?
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
My guess is he'll say yes in a convoluted way so that it's not really a yes but more of a incertain extreme examples it's cool in others (when it benefits Ian Desmond for example) it's cool
For example if you take issue with an exceptional defender in RF holding value would he take issue with Desmond crushing Harper and Werth in WAR even though they're clearly the superior hitters.
Am I the only one here who's wondering when the hell did oWAR, dWAR, SIERRA, wOBA, came out?
I mean... I've been trying to get a read on stats for a while. Years ago I was learning the importance of OPS and came to accept it. Came to accept OBP for what it was and value it. I finally learned what WAR was a few years ago, same for WHIP. Then OPS+ came out and ERA+ came out and I was like ok cool..
Now that I've finally grasped them, I see people thowing out oWAR, dWAR, SIERRA, wOBA, xFIP, GIF, JPEG, PNG, PSD and I have no idea what the hell is going on. Stats combined with other stats to make more complex stats. Man sometimes I just missed the days a win was a win and a loss was a loss... and there was no "He pitched much better than the loss indicates, because..." Yeah Teheran loses a game 1-0 because he has no run support, I am sympathetic. But I've seen guys try to argue that a 6ip, 3ER, 2BB, 5K outing in a 5-2 loss was actually a good start. It's just... too much. Too soon.
I missed the days when I knew Shane Reynolds and Russ Ortiz were not that good despite their W-L because they were getting 5 runs a game or better, while Maddux and Hampton were getting screwed and I didn't need stats to explain it to me!
I mean... I've been trying to get a read on stats for a while. Years ago I was learning the importance of OPS and came to accept it. Came to accept OBP for what it was and value it. I finally learned what WAR was a few years ago, same for WHIP. Then OPS+ came out and ERA+ came out and I was like ok cool..
Now that I've finally grasped them, I see people thowing out oWAR, dWAR, SIERRA, wOBA, xFIP, GIF, JPEG, PNG, PSD and I have no idea what the hell is going on. Stats combined with other stats to make more complex stats. Man sometimes I just missed the days a win was a win and a loss was a loss... and there was no "He pitched much better than the loss indicates, because..." Yeah Teheran loses a game 1-0 because he has no run support, I am sympathetic. But I've seen guys try to argue that a 6ip, 3ER, 2BB, 5K outing in a 5-2 loss was actually a good start. It's just... too much. Too soon.
I missed the days when I knew Shane Reynolds and Russ Ortiz were not that good despite their W-L because they were getting 5 runs a game or better, while Maddux and Hampton were getting screwed and I didn't need stats to explain it to me!
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
oWAR and dWAR are essentially separating the offensive and defensive components of WAR. Primarily used by bRef as offensive WAR for Fangraphs is essentially wRAA and defensive WAR is UZR.
As far as wOBA I believe it came out around 07 or so. Became more widely spread a few years ago.
SIERA Is really fun. I'ts basically FIP with batted ball factored in.
As far as wOBA I believe it came out around 07 or so. Became more widely spread a few years ago.
SIERA Is really fun. I'ts basically FIP with batted ball factored in.
Yeah but... I still haven't even figured out what the hell Runs Created, FIP, xFIP, and all the other crap is.
Is there gonna be a new HBP stat too? Like dHBP? Where a batter is TRYING to move out the way and gets hit, as opposed to a batter leaning in and taking the HBP?
What about analyzing managerial ejections? Will we someday analyze and calculate how important Bobby's Ejections were, by giving him Win Shares?
Is there gonna be a new HBP stat too? Like dHBP? Where a batter is TRYING to move out the way and gets hit, as opposed to a batter leaning in and taking the HBP?
What about analyzing managerial ejections? Will we someday analyze and calculate how important Bobby's Ejections were, by giving him Win Shares?
How athletic is a 30+ year old Werth that has been awful defensively of late?
Zito, do you believe Pence is worth roughly a half a win over Heyward? Do you think Heyward is a better player than Werth this year? (.331/.403/.532) How about Nelson Cruz?
Wait, by your standards isn't Victorino 8 runs better defensively? Parra better? And Cody Ross, of all people, even better?
I don't have an issue with Desmond having a higher WAR. He's playing above average defense at a defensive premium position and is either the best or 2nd best offensive SS so far. (didn't you call me a homer and say Desmond was just having a career year?) The defensive impact a SS makes is hard to quantify but infinately more important than a RFer (which is why teams often put unathletic guys with decent arms in RF) My issue isn't that Heyward isn't a great defender. Its the number they are putting on his defensive impact. Corner OFers just don't have that type of impace on games, defensively, in my opinion.
Yes they are all better defenders then Harper. UZR is flawed in that if you have a really good center fielder then the corner outfielders will get a increase in UZR. That's been proven. So since Harper has Span next to him maybe he's actually a bad defender instead of average?