Rosy but Not Unrealistic Scenario For 2017

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
Smith LF (2 WAR)
Inciarte CF (3)
Markakis RF (2)
New Player at Third (2)
Oz SS (2)
Swanny 2B (2)
Freeman 1B (4)
New Catcher (2)

Overall from lineup: 19 WAR

Teheran (3)
Wisler (2)
Blair (2)
Folty (2)
Sims (2)

Overall from rotation: 11 WAR

Pen and Bench: 6 WAR

Total: 36 WAR

Team of replacement players is 48 wins

Gets us to 84 wins

Doesn't seem far-fetched to me. None of the assumptions are unrealistic. We have the funds/trade pieces to pick up a catcher, third baseman, 1 or 2 relief pitchers, and 1 or 2 veteran bench players.

We have some fallback options for the starting pitching: Gant, Jenkins, Newcomb.

Rio Ruiz might continue to surprise and be able to fill in at third. This is why someone like Prado who could move to another position if necessary makes a lot of sense as a signing this off-season.
 
And it's certainly possible that Swanson and Albies produce more than 2 WAR (while it's also obviously possible that they don't, or that others don't produce as much as you're projecting).

The defense on that team should be really good, too.
 
nsacpi said:
Smith LF (2 WAR)
Inciarte CF (3)
Markakis RF (2)
New Player at Third (2)
Oz SS (2)
Swanny 2B (2)
Freeman 1B (4)
New Catcher (2)

Overall from lineup: 19 WAR

Teheran (3)
Wisler (2)
Blair (2)
Folty (2)
Sims (2)

Overall from rotation: 11 WAR

Pen and Bench: 6 WAR

Total: 36 WAR

Team of replacement players is 48 wins

Gets us to 84 wins

Doesn't seem far-fetched to me. None of the assumptions are unrealistic. We have the funds/trade pieces to pick up a catcher, third baseman, 1 or 2 relief pitchers, and 1 or 2 veteran bench players.

We have some fallback options for the starting pitching: Gant, Jenkins, Newcomb.

Rio Ruiz might continue to surprise and be able to fill in at third. This is why someone like Prado who could move to another position if necessary makes a lot of sense as a signing this off-season.
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I don't want Dalyn to keel over, but I thought about whether or not it would make sense to sign Prado (or someone like him) over the winter. I'm really curious what Prado's market will be. He's ripping the ball right now, but I fully expect a .750 OPS by the end of the year. We may need to shop in the power aisle and sacrifice a little defense somewhere. Also, if Markakis continues to hit, my guess is he'll be somewhere else at the deadline.
 
50PoundHead said:
I don't want Dalyn to keel over, but I thought about whether or not it would make sense to sign Prado (or someone like him) over the winter. I'm really curious what Prado's market will be. He's ripping the ball right now, but I fully expect a .750 OPS by the end of the year. We may need to shop in the power aisle and sacrifice a little defense somewhere. Also, if Markakis continues to hit, my guess is he'll be somewhere else at the deadline.
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I also think if Blair and Folty show they are ready to stay in the Bigs and one or two of Sims/Jenkins/Ellis/Gant are ready to make an impact in 2017, then JT will be gone as well. We would most likely pick up another scrap heap pitcher to start 2017..
 
I actually could easily see us as a .500 team next year. We've started to hit the point where we're replacing the stop gap measures with young players with promise. The arrivals of Blair and Folty are heralding that. With guys like Albies and Swanson on the horizon and a slew of pitching prospects, we should see things start moving in the right direction. I'm hoping we hit our franchise low point with this April.
 
I guess the question I have with respect to trading Teheran and Markakis is whether what we get in return delays the return to respectability or not. I realize some view respectability as a purgatory to be avoided. But I think with an assist from Lady Luck it can be a good spot to be.
 
nsacpi said:
I guess the question I have with respect to trading Teheran and Markakis is whether what we get in return delays the return to respectability or not. I realize some view respectability as a purgatory to be avoided. But I think with an assist from Lady Luck it can be a good spot to be.
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I think trading JT would not really set us back if the pieces already in place are showing signs of being ready. in fact, it could help us if we get someone like Contreras or the like.. That is why I said, Blair and Folty have to show that they are ready.. if we have three starters who have what it takes to be big leaguers.. then JT is much more expendable. That being said, you would hate to go into 2017 that thin. .so Sims/ Jenkins/Ellis and Gant also need to show they are close to ready. That way, injury or ineffectiveness can be replaced and not be affected as bad.

Neck can be traded.. I don't think losing his 2 War is going to set us back that far. we can get a cheap replacement to get us 1 War while we wait for pieces in 2018...
 
Yeah, given our current talent and available funds going into 2017, it should be a layup to field a team with a win projection in the high 70s to low 80s. It's not uncommon for teams like that to make the playoffs, so to me, that makes for a contending team in 2017. The performance of this FO has been mixed since they took over, but building a contender after only a two year hiatus would make for a pretty effective rebuild.
 
I think those projects are more or less possible, but I think it's particularly bullish on the pitching.

I really think the team needs to add a frontline starter and frontline position player before I would feel comfortable with next year's team. We have the depth coming quickly through the minor leagues.
 
I have this weird feeling that the front office won't trade Markakis, or they'll wait too late to where he drops his level even more and nobody will want to take him.
 
dak said:
Yeah, given our current talent and available funds going into 2017, it should be a layup to field a team with a win projection in the high 70s to low 80s. It's not uncommon for teams like that to make the playoffs, so to me, that makes for a contending team in 2017. The performance of this FO has been mixed since they took over, but building a contender after only a two year hiatus would make for a pretty effective rebuild.
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And we can do that without trading from the future. Teheran and Markakis have been mentioned as possible trade bait. I think Garcia could be someone that we could use in a trade, especially with an American League team. This is one of the reasons I'd like to see him have a successful run in left. It would certainly help build his value. We could for example package Garcia and Flowers together for a better catcher and sign a new backup catcher on the FA market. That's why I'm rooting for good seasons for those two. We have them under control for a while and would benefit a lot from any increase in their value.
 
The Don said:
I have this weird feeling that the front office won't trade Markakis, or they'll wait too late to where he drops his level even more and nobody will want to take him.
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It wouldn't be the worst thing. Markakis can be the bridge until some of our outfield prospects arrive. Guys like Peterson, Davidson, Lien, Acuna, Isranel Wilson.
 
chop2chip said:
I think those projects are more or less possible, but I think it's particularly bullish on the pitching.

I really think the team needs to add a frontline starter and frontline position player before I would feel comfortable with next year's team. We have the depth coming quickly through the minor leagues.
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We do have the option of picking up a ML starting pitcher. There are a variety of ways we could put together a .500 team next year. I also wouldn't rule out trading from the future...as long as we get good value.
 
nsacpi said:
It wouldn't be the worst thing. Markakis can be the bridge until some of our outfield prospects arrive. Guys like Peterson, Davidson, Lien, Acuna, Isranel Wilson.
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I don't disagree, just don't want to read in a few years how we had a standing offer of Markakis for a blue chip prospect.
 
nsacpi said:
Smith LF (2 WAR)
Inciarte CF (3)
Markakis RF (2)
New Player at Third (2)
Oz SS (2)
Swanny 2B (2)
Freeman 1B (4)
New Catcher (2)

Overall from lineup: 19 WAR

Teheran (3)
Wisler (2)
Blair (2)
Folty (2)
Sims (2)

Overall from rotation: 11 WAR

Pen and Bench: 6 WAR

Total: 36 WAR

Team of replacement players is 48 wins

Gets us to 84 wins

Doesn't seem far-fetched to me. None of the assumptions are unrealistic. We have the funds/trade pieces to pick up a catcher, third baseman, 1 or 2 relief pitchers, and 1 or 2 veteran bench players.

We have some fallback options for the starting pitching: Gant, Jenkins, Newcomb.

Rio Ruiz might continue to surprise and be able to fill in at third. This is why someone like Prado who could move to another position if necessary makes a lot of sense as a signing this off-season.
Click to expand...

I agree. This is why I think the goal of being competitive in 2017 is real. Teams that win 83+ have a shot. IF a lot of teams tank ( Phils, Marlins always a bet) then maybe you get some bonus wins and you're a couple of wins better than you should be.

I real life I don't think Mallex and Inciarte are on the same team. I think one gets traded.

I still think we'll make a big trade and or signing in the off season.

Prado on a two year deal would probably be a good option b/c we assume some issues at 3B/LF. We assume no HO. We assume college bat at the #3 pick who we'd want to be playing in 2019 or 2020.

I think you did a good job on the projections overall to keep it simple. In real life I think the defense of Inciarte, Albies and Swanson pushes them above those numbers assuming health and a full season. I think we have enough pitchers with talent that we should find a way to get 10-12 WAR out of the starters.
 
That's definitely optimistic.

You would have to have a pretty sick pen/bench to get 6 WAR out of that group, no?
 
nsacpi said:
We do have the option of picking up a ML starting pitcher. There are a variety of ways we could put together a .500 team next year. I also wouldn't rule out trading from the future...as long as we get good value.
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That's where rebuilding a team actually becomes difficult. It's easy to trade a bunch of young controllable assets for good prospects. It's the corresponding moves of trading for major league talent where it becomes difficult.

I'm actually fine if they use next year as a ramp up year. The team should still be fun to watch with the major influx of young talent and hopefully an awesome new stadium. By 2018 we should have an idea of what we need to add from outside the system in order to compete.
 
smootness said:
That's definitely optimistic.

You would have to have a pretty sick pen/bench to get 6 WAR out of that group, no?
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Over half of major league pens had a WAR of 3 or higher last year. Nine teams were 4.5 or higher. This is just the pen. So a combined 6 WAR for the pen and bench is a little optimistic but not crazy. As the thread title says rosy but not unrealistic.
 
I think the old adage about needing veterans is actually the reverse. I think young teams have more energy and urgency to perform. Being a major leaguer is still new and fresh to them. A lot of players have their best years in their first few seasons in the majors. The whole team as presented by OP would cost less than 60 million combined. I know its unrealistic but slot Strasburg at the top of that rotation and I like the team a whole lot more.
 
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