Rosy but Not Unrealistic Scenario For 2017

cajunrevenge said:
The whole team as presented by OP would cost less than 60 million combined.
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I don't think that's quite right. New catcher and third baseman are not likely to be cheap. And to hit the goals I set for the bench and pen we will probably have to spend some there. We do have the option of going cheap in those areas and going for a Strasburg. I think the projected wins might be a little better, but I'm not sure I like the risk that this entails.
 
yeezus said:
And it's certainly possible that Swanson and Albies produce more than 2 WAR (while it's also obviously possible that they don't, or that others don't produce as much as you're projecting).

The defense on that team should be really good, too.
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I wouldn't discount Mallex either as a guy with potential to produce more than double his anticipated WAR. He's off to a great start defensively. If he keeps it up and his offense comes around then you might be looking at a 4-6 WAR player. I personally am a believer in keeping Mallex in CF and throwing Inciarte over in RF if Mallex continues to play good defense. Mukaki is either traded or shifted to LF.
 
nsacpi said:
I don't think that's quite right. New catcher and third baseman are not likely to be cheap. And to hit the goals I set for the bench and pen we will probably have to spend some there. We do have the option of going cheap in those areas and going for a Strasburg. I think the projected wins might be a little better, but I'm not sure I like the risk that this entails.
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My expectations for 3B is Ruiz/Adonis and for catcher either Flowers and a left backup or trade for Lucroy who shouldnt be too expensive as he will be entering the last year of his deal and isnt really an all star offensive player anymore.
 
cajunrevenge said:
My expectations for 3B is Ruiz/Adonis and for catcher either Flowers and a left backup or trade for Lucroy who shouldnt be too expensive as he will be entering the last year of his deal and isnt really an all star offensive player anymore.
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Something like that is certainly an option. You gain with the starting pitching. Probably lose some at third. And while Lucroy is cheap in terms of the contract, we would have him for only one year.
 
nsacpi said:
Smith LF (2 WAR)
Inciarte CF (3)
Markakis RF (2)
New Player at Third (2)
Oz SS (2)
Swanny 2B (2)
Freeman 1B (4)
New Catcher (2)

Overall from lineup: 19 WAR

Teheran (3)
Wisler (2)
Blair (2)
Folty (2)
Sims (2)

Overall from rotation: 11 WAR

Pen and Bench: 6 WAR

Total: 36 WAR

Team of replacement players is 48 wins

Gets us to 84 wins

Doesn't seem far-fetched to me. None of the assumptions are unrealistic. We have the funds/trade pieces to pick up a catcher, third baseman, 1 or 2 relief pitchers, and 1 or 2 veteran bench players.

We have some fallback options for the starting pitching: Gant, Jenkins, Newcomb.

Rio Ruiz might continue to surprise and be able to fill in at third. This is why someone like Prado who could move to another position if necessary makes a lot of sense as a signing this off-season.
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This is pretty much what I've been saying for the last few months.

That 2 WAR guy at 3B could be Freese or Prado. That 2 WAR catcher could be Cervelli. Those would be very solid mid-market signings.

In my mind it is unacceptable to go into next year with a starting OF of Smith/Inciarte/Markakis. The entire OF may hit a total of 10 HRs if that's the case. Guys like Braun and Ces can be acquired for a corner OF spot, and I think a move for a guy like that needs to happen this offseason. The need is there, the resources to address that need is there, and they need to make it look like they are trying to build a winner going into next year, so make it happen.
 
Enscheff said:
In my mind it is unacceptable to go into next year with a starting OF of Smith/Inciarte/Markakis.
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My sense is that they wouldn't want to be so left-handed in the OF. That's why I think either Markakis or Inciarte will be traded before OD of 2017. I fear it will be Inciarte if they find a team that "overvalues" his defense (in the FO's estimation). I'm also concerned that the offseason priority will be an inflexible pursuit of a RH power hitter to hit cleanup, whatever the cost.
 
dak said:
My sense is that they wouldn't want to be so left-handed in the OF. That's why I think either Markakis or Inciarte will be traded before OD of 2017. I fear it will be Inciarte if they find a team that "overvalues" his defense (in the FO's estimation). I'm also concerned that the offseason priority will be an inflexible pursuit of a RH power hitter to hit cleanup, whatever the cost.
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My thoughts exactly.
 
Starting to not really want Lucroy anymore. He really only had the one good year... The rest of his career has been mediocrity and injury. Would rather have Ceraveli or however you spell his name
 
zbhargrove said:
Starting to not really want Lucroy anymore. He really only had the one good year... The rest of his career has been mediocrity and injury. Would rather have Ceraveli or however you spell his name
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Yea, same with me. I was on the Lucroy train but due to injury history and what seems some decline I am now favoring Francisco Cervelli. Cervelli is a very good catcher and he can hit good for a catcher. He'd be my top target.
 
We can mitigate being so left handed by have a fourth outfielder with strong platoon splits from the right side.
 
Braves1976 said:
Yea, same with me. I was on the Lucroy train but due to injury history and what seems some decline I am now favoring Francisco Cervelli. Cervelli is a very good catcher and he can hit good for a catcher. He'd be my top target.
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Cervelli hasn't caught a lot of games for his age so he may have more left in the tank. I think the Pirates will give him a QO so he will cost a pick to sign. I would sign him anyway.

I would try to trade Markakis and use the savings to sign Prado for LF . Prado or Markakis should give you about the same production. That would solve the Left handed outfield problem.
 
JxnMissFan said:
Cervelli hasn't caught a lot of games for his age so he may have more left in the tank. I think the Pirates will give him a QO so he will cost a pick to sign. I would sign him anyway.

I would try to trade Markakis and use the savings to sign Prado for LF . Prado or Markakis should give you about the same production. That would solve the Left handed outfield problem.
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I'd consider signing Prado for a number of reasons, his ties to us and being such a good team player and his ability to play so many positions and play them well.
 
nsacpi said:
We can mitigate being so left handed by have a fourth outfielder with strong platoon splits from the right side.
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That's an option they should consider if they can't get a good package for Markakis / Inciarte, but I don't think this will be there preference. With Markakis a full-time guy, the 4th OF would probably be someone who can cover CF. This would leave them without the cleanup hitter I think they'll covet unless they can trade for a pretty big fish at 3B. However they play it, I'm just hoping we end up with 4 OFs that are clearly above replacement level.
 
Braun has a no trade and we are on it.

I like prado and cerveli depending on cost and years. We could front load both deals bc everyone else is so cheap

Prado allows u play 3b or 2b if you are holding down service time and or Ruiz or albies is not ready. Can hit tough lefties for Ruiz. Can play lf and upgrade Garcia if Ruiz and albies are good

Still have enough money to make sure nays pay over 150 for Strauss

Long term power is an issue. Getting below avg power per position across of, Ruiz, albies. Prob avg from freeman and Swanson. No idea on catcher. Folty might give up more hrs than that team hits in a yr
 
i have doubts folty will even be around next year. he'll get his shot now and if yesterday was any indication, same old same old. hope i'm wrong, but i see him as no better than about the 6th best pitching prospect in the system right now.
 
chipchildress said:
i have doubts folty will even be around next year. he'll get his shot now and if yesterday was any indication, same old same old. hope i'm wrong, but i see him as no better than about the 6th best pitching prospect in the system right now.
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The scenario I sketched out is just that. None of the names are etched in concrete. We have other starting pitching options in the organization who might be ready at some point next year: Gant, Newcomb, Barker, Jenkins. My point is that we have quite a few internal possibilities that could combine for around 11 WAR.
 
chipchildress said:
i have doubts folty will even be around next year. he'll get his shot now and if yesterday was any indication, same old same old. hope i'm wrong, but i see him as no better than about the 6th best pitching prospect in the system right now.
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I'm hoping we can trade him to the rockies...they love velocity.
 
chop2chip said:
I think those projects are more or less possible, but I think it's particularly bullish on the pitching.

I really think the team needs to add a frontline starter and frontline position player before I would feel comfortable with next year's team. We have the depth coming quickly through the minor leagues.
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I definitely see us making a play for a TOR starter as well as a RH bopper to hit in the middle of the lineup. We have money and prospects to do so, and I don't see us being big players in the free agent market and paying guys for what they've done instead of what they're going to do.
 
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