- STARTS TODAY AT 7PM - 2016 June Amateur Draft Discussion

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If Groome is there you have to take him imo. If by chance him and Lewis are both gone then I'd go Puk and sign him under slot and go over on our comp pick. Picking Puk at 3 would allow us to trade some pitching for the bat that we need so bad.
 
clvclv said:
JMO (and I realize you're not saying it should matter 50), but it could easily turn out to be a huge mistake NOT to take Groome at that point - possibly even if someone else you "like" is willing to sign under slot. We all HOPE that a Daz Cameron type of situation will work out and we'll be able to get two premium talents instead of one. As others have pointed out before though, it's a long way from #3 to #40, and the chances of someone swooping in and gobbling up someone we think we could get with that second pick are good.

The cardinal rule has always been to take the BPA, and if he were to slide to us at #3 I can't imagine many would argue that Groome wouldn't absolutely be that BPA (regardless of who's left on the board). If you believe (and I think most of us do) in the old adage that you just don't draft with your MLB club in mind, passing on an arm like Groome's when he falls into your lap seems crazy. We all know about the attrition rates of pitching prospects, but the way you eventually win that battle is by having enough of them to weather the storm. If you believe (and only the brass truly knows) that we simply aren't ever going to play at the high-end of the free-agent market (especially Pitchers) then we've got to eventually develop an "Ace" or two.

I hope we can work out backroom deals with two players we KNOW will be available when it's our turn, but...

1.) They better BOTH be there, and

2.) you better be right about BOTH of them

because passing on a "surer thing" with higher upside really would be something everyone ought to bitch about - especially when you'd still get two pretty good players with those two later picks to begin with.
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I'd be fine with Groome. High end pitching is always welcome. I guess the secondary point is the one I was driving at. If you sign Groome, you may lack flexibility later on if you want to go over slot. Of course, they went slightly over slot with Allard and still had enough coin to move around to go over slot on Riley.

One guy I'm watching is Gio Brusa. He's a college senior out of the University of the Pacific and was the Braves' 37th round pick out of high school in 2012. The Cardinals drafted him in the 23rd round last year, but he returned to college for his senior year. I'm pretty sure he's a Boras client, which presents its own challenges, but like Tanner Rainey last year, he's probably a guy teams are banking on to go well below slot while having some ceiling. Brusa has big-time power potential, but has some contact issues.
 
What I'm kind of expecting at this point is for Puk and Lewis to go 1 and 2. I think the Phils believe they're close to competing again and would rather have the big college lefty who will help out sooner.

I think Lewis appeals to the Reds for the same reason he appeals to us. Probably the best true masher of the draft. He'd be a beast in GAB and they know it.

I think Groome falls more than a lot expect. The slot issue there is a big deal teams and Groome is one that I think you'll have to go overslot to sign. I could easily see us passing on him for that reason.

That leaves us with guys like Ray, Senzel, Rutherford, Pint, and Perez. Some are better options than others but none really excite me.

Ray looks like the best of the group to me but doesn't really fit a need with us. The power-speed combo is very intriguing. However, I still get the feeling that he's only a difference maker in center. I could see him being a consistent 20 HR - 20 SB guy and that's a tremendous asset in center. From a right fielder it's still excellent but I don't know if it's difference making. Also, he doesn't really fit our needs well. We're looking pretty good in center with Inciarte, Mallex, and Acuna. Also, Ray probably looks best as a number 2 hitter. With Albies, Swanson, and Mallex, the top of the order is getting crowded.

Senzel is a better fit positionally since he plays third. Ruiz's resurgence this year gives us some hope at third but I'm not sold on Ruiz yet. I doubt the Braves are sold enough on him to pass on Senzel if they end up really liking him. Scouts rave about Senzel's hit tool (only 15 Ks at this point) and he's putting up some pretty good stats in the SEC. That hit tool also makes him major league ready soon. The problem here is the ceiling. You're talking about a guy without a ton of thunder. He's more a doubles hitter. He might be a perennial .300 hitter but 10-15 HRs is all you could expect. He'd kind of be what the Braves were hoping to get in Olivera, actually.

Rutherford, Pint, and Perez all have the same issues. They're all super talented with tremendous ceilings. However they'd all likely present slot issues, they're all a long way from the majors, and they're all higher risk.

Lewis is still at the top of my board. After that I'd probably put Puk. Then Groome. I hope we'd take Groome if he's on the board and Lewis is gone. After that I'd probably have to pick between Ray and Senzel.
 
I agree striker. I've got Lewis at the top then Puk and Groome. Which ever one is there at 3 you have to take him.
 
striker42 said:
What I'm kind of expecting at this point is for Puk and Lewis to go 1 and 2. I think the Phils believe they're close to competing again and would rather have the big college lefty who will help out sooner.

I think Lewis appeals to the Reds for the same reason he appeals to us. Probably the best true masher of the draft. He'd be a beast in GAB and they know it.

I think Groome falls more than a lot expect. The slot issue there is a big deal teams and Groome is one that I think you'll have to go overslot to sign. I could easily see us passing on him for that reason.

That leaves us with guys like Ray, Senzel, Rutherford, Pint, and Perez. Some are better options than others but none really excite me.

Ray looks like the best of the group to me but doesn't really fit a need with us. The power-speed combo is very intriguing. However, I still get the feeling that he's only a difference maker in center. I could see him being a consistent 20 HR - 20 SB guy and that's a tremendous asset in center. From a right fielder it's still excellent but I don't know if it's difference making. Also, he doesn't really fit our needs well. We're looking pretty good in center with Inciarte, Mallex, and Acuna. Also, Ray probably looks best as a number 2 hitter. With Albies, Swanson, and Mallex, the top of the order is getting crowded.

Senzel is a better fit positionally since he plays third. Ruiz's resurgence this year gives us some hope at third but I'm not sold on Ruiz yet. I doubt the Braves are sold enough on him to pass on Senzel if they end up really liking him. Scouts rave about Senzel's hit tool (only 15 Ks at this point) and he's putting up some pretty good stats in the SEC. That hit tool also makes him major league ready soon. The problem here is the ceiling. You're talking about a guy without a ton of thunder. He's more a doubles hitter. He might be a perennial .300 hitter but 10-15 HRs is all you could expect. He'd kind of be what the Braves were hoping to get in Olivera, actually.

Rutherford, Pint, and Perez all have the same issues. They're all super talented with tremendous ceilings. However they'd all likely present slot issues, they're all a long way from the majors, and they're all higher risk.

Lewis is still at the top of my board. After that I'd probably put Puk. Then Groome. I hope we'd take Groome if he's on the board and Lewis is gone. After that I'd probably have to pick between Ray and Senzel.
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I think that is why the Braves are wanting to trade for more draft picks. They want more slot money so they can get Groome and then still over slot another player. That would burn #40 and #44 to getting someone who is willing to take around a million..

#3 Groome 5.5 million

#37 College bat 4 million

#40 College player 1.2

#44 College player 1.2

that might be a bit over for slot values but you get the jist. Wouldn't that be great.

#37 is Oaklands and they maybe would trade that pick for Jed Lowire and Butler and maybe send some cash their way too.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I think that is why the Braves are wanting to trade for more draft picks. They want more slot money so they can get Groome and then still over slot another player. That would burn #40 and #44 to getting someone who is willing to take around a million..

#3 Groome 5.5 million
#37 College bat 4 million
#40 College player 1.2
#44 College player 1.2

that might be a bit over for slot values but you get the jist. Wouldn't that be great.

#37 is Oaklands and they maybe would trade that pick for Jed Lowire and Butler and maybe send some cash their way too.
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Could be. I think the Braves have a pretty good idea who is going 1 and 2 at this point.
 
The case for Lewis has gotten stronger. I also still like Delvin Perez. Groome would be #3 on my draft board after those two.
 
Today (and it will change), I like:

#3 OF Kyle Lewis

#40 OF William Benson

#44 OF Heath Quinn

Benson has fallen in most projections but may not be around at #40. If not, I would go with RHP Zack Burdi at 40 if he's available.
 
I wouldn't mind that HH but you know how the Braves are, they'll take pitchers with 2 of the 3 picks.
 
I'd be happy with Lewis, Groome, Pint or Puk. You could probably talk me into Moniak, Perez or Rutherford if they aren't over slot. I'd probably be upset with any other choice.
 
Hmm. Someone talk to me about Zack Collins. Catcher is the weakest position in the organization- we could use a big-time player there.
 
MadduxFanII said:
Hmm. Someone talk to me about Zack Collins. Catcher is the weakest position in the organization- we could use a big-time player there.
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The comparisons seem to be to Schwarber, both in hitting ability and questionable ability to stick behind the plate. My guess is that his bat isn't quite as good, and we don't need a college 1B.
 
Collins' bat is special. If our scouts believed that he can stick behind the plate, I honestly wouldn't mind going under slot and taking him at 3. He's that good with the bat.
 
I was reading an article a minute ago about draft manipulation and how the Braves could go after Moniak at 3 and have a deal in place with Collins at 40. It's definitely gonna fun to watch and see what route they go. The other route they saw us taking was acquiring another pick for slot money and getting Groome and maybe Moniak.
 
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