Power

JxnMissFan said:
All along I've thought that Mallex, Dansby, Ozzie and Ender would be ok in a lineup with a few more Freddies added. I'm starting to second guess myself. 140 HR is probably the starting point for home runs for good offensive teams. The four young guys and Freeman should give you 50 to 55 HR. If you add 60 to 65 HR at C, 3rd and LF that's 115 to 120 HR. That puts the burden of 20 HR on the bench. That maybe asking to much of the bench.

Looking at it this way I don't believe a future outfield of Ender and Mallex will work unless one or them finds some pop.
Click to expand...

But that is an arbitrary line. If Ender and Mallex both put up 3+ WAR, that will do just fine.
 
smootness said:
I wouldn't be entirely opposed to McCann, but I wouldn't love it, either. I, like others, like the idea of Cervelli more, but his price will likely be pretty high and for more years.

I think everybody realizes it at this point, but I would say 'no thanks' on either Kemp or Myers. If it had to be one, though, give me Myers.
Click to expand...

Cervelli would also likely cost us a high second round pick.
 
nsacpi said:
One thing to keep in mind about Kemp and Myers is the financial side. Myers has three arb years left after this year. He will cost more in prospects. With Kemp we can make use of the financial flexibility we will have next year to minimize how much we have to send back in the way of talent.
Click to expand...

Right. I guess I'm just a bigger believer in Myers than most here. I think he can really hit. He's from the Carolinas, so I'd imagine he would be open to staying past free agency. And he can really hit.
 
At this point Myers and Kemp are similar hitters. I would expect an OPS in the .750-.800 range from both next year. There is an age difference, which means that Myers would probably be the better hitter in the last two years of contractual control.
 
smootness said:
You seem happy to have sub-.400 SLG from RF, 3B, and C for someone so seemingly dead set against sub-.400 SLG.
Click to expand...

I'm just being realistic. This team with this budget can't expect to have impact hitters at every position that also play average or better defense. They can, however, afford to have an impact hitter in LF, and if the CF defense is good enough that LFer can be slightly below average defensively. I also don't put as much weight on defensive WAR as some others, which is the main reason I'm not as high on guys like Heyward, Inciarte and Simmons as folks that preach WAR as the gospel. I do NOT think 2 dWAR is truly as valuable as 2 oWAR.

The reason being that defensive contributions do not stack indefinitely, while offensive contributions do. Elite defenders cancel each other out as they overlap their ranges, and as pitchers give up less hard contact. Example being a team full of Heywards, Simmonses, Machados, and Inciartes...guys that can post 30+ DRS values. Let's say you have 8 of those players in your lineup, would they combine for 240 runs saved? Absolutely not because many of Machado's chances to gain DRS would be stolen by Simmons, just like much of Heyward's DRS would be stolen by Inciarte, and vise versa. All of a sudden their DRS is lower, and then so is their WAR values. What if you put that team behind a rotation full of Kershaw's? Suddenly their DRS, and WAR values, go down even more. Meanwhile, they are still hitting like they they usually do (not a bad thing with Machado obviously).

The point is you need balance. Currently the Braves are balanced because they suck at everything, but when they intend to be good they will need some guys that can hit the ball and some guys that can catch the ball because it is unrealistic to have a roster full of guys that can do both with a $120M payroll.
 
I get that theoretically, defensive contributions don't stack indefinitely. But in reality, most of the time they do. If you fielded a team with 8 elite defensive players, you would win a whole crap ton of games.
 
smootness said:
I get that theoretically, defensive contributions don't stack indefinitely. But in reality, most of the time they do. If you fielded a team with 8 elite defensive players, you would win a whole crap ton of games.
Click to expand...

A team of elite defenders is useless against a homerun.
 
so who would win a 7 game series..

8 position players that had elite power, but lower OBP and average to below average defense..
or
8 position players that had light power, average hitter but elite defense..

pitching is equal at slightly above average..
 
bravesfanMatt said:
so who would win a 7 game series..

8 position players that had elite power, but lower OBP and average to below average defense..
or
8 position players that had light power, average hitter but elite defense..

pitching is equal at slightly above average..
Click to expand...

I'll take door number 2, at least assuming 'average hitter' means they can all OBP at least .330 and some are .360+.
 
Enscheff said:
I'm just being realistic. This team with this budget can't expect to have impact hitters at every position that also play average or better defense. They can, however, afford to have an impact hitter in LF, and if the CF defense is good enough that LFer can be slightly below average defensively. I also don't put as much weight on defensive WAR as some others, which is the main reason I'm not as high on guys like Heyward, Inciarte and Simmons as folks that preach WAR as the gospel. I do NOT think 2 dWAR is truly as valuable as 2 oWAR.

The reason being that defensive contributions do not stack indefinitely, while offensive contributions do. Elite defenders cancel each other out as they overlap their ranges, and as pitchers give up less hard contact. Example being a team full of Heywards, Simmonses, Machados, and Inciartes...guys that can post 30+ DRS values. Let's say you have 8 of those players in your lineup, would they combine for 240 runs saved? Absolutely not because many of Machado's chances to gain DRS would be stolen by Simmons, just like much of Heyward's DRS would be stolen by Inciarte, and vise versa. All of a sudden their DRS is lower, and then so is their WAR values. What if you put that team behind a rotation full of Kershaw's? Suddenly their DRS, and WAR values, go down even more. Meanwhile, they are still hitting like they they usually do (not a bad thing with Machado obviously).

The point is you need balance. Currently the Braves are balanced because they suck at everything, but when they intend to be good they will need some guys that can hit the ball and some guys that can catch the ball because it is unrealistic to have a roster full of guys that can do both with a $120M payroll.
Click to expand...

The KC and SF Giants model is more what I'm for and that would include keeping both Inciarte and Smith. Despite Smith's hot streak we still don't know yet where he'll settle long term. But I am more confident in what I see in Inciarte after watching him improve the last few years in MLB. Further, I think I'd go for someone like Myers for left field and to add some power depending on the cost. Then just have a strong defensive replacement for him late in games we lead.

I'd also try to put together a bench that adds more power overall too.
 
Braves1976 said:
The KC and SF Giants model is more what I'm for and that would include keeping both Inciarte and Smith. Despite Smith's hot streak we still don't know yet where he'll settle long term. But I am more confident in what I see in Inciarte after watching him improve the last few years in MLB. Further, I think I'd go for someone like Myers for left field and to add some power depending on the cost. Then just have a strong defensive replacement for him late in games we lead.

I'd also try to put together a bench that adds more power overall too.
Click to expand...

You mean the Giants team that has been using home grown pitching, homegrown position players, and the occasion import of an impact bat like Pence or a fill in rotation arm like Peavy? The team that ranks #7 in SLG% this year after ranking #12 last year? Or exactly the team building approach I have been advocating the whole time?

If so, then I agree, the Braves should do exactly what I have been suggesting...the Giants way.
 
smootness said:
I'll take door number 2, at least assuming 'average hitter' means they can all OBP at least .330 and some are .360+.
Click to expand...

Yeah, wrong. An average MLB OBP is about .315-.320. Guys posting .330-.360+ would be far above average MLB hitters.

And what's with the constant false dichotomy arguments? Trading for some power in LF is a far cry from a team full of Evan Gattis.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
so who would win a 7 game series..

8 position players that had elite power, but lower OBP and average to below average defense..
or
8 position players that had light power, average hitter but elite defense..

pitching is equal at slightly above average..
Click to expand...

2015 Royals fit that 2nd team pretty perfectly.
 
thewupk said:
2015 Royals fit that 2nd team pretty perfectly.
Click to expand...

15 royals had 3 players hit over 20 hr. One hit 16. One hit 18. Yes one of the 20 hr was a dh

No way mallex inciarte random lf ff albies Swanson Ruiz random catcher have 3 guys hit 20 hr. Don't think you can get 5 hitting over 15 hrs
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top