Why does this misconception persist? The 2015 Royals ranked 11th in SLG and 11th in OBP. They were not some light hitting team. They had a good balanced offense.
Power
- Thread starter msstate7
- Start date
Why does this misconception persist? The 2015 Royals ranked 11th in SLG and 11th in OBP. They were not some light hitting team. They had a good balanced offense.
They were average offensively. They were tied for next to last ISO Slg for AL teams. 8th out of 15 AL teams in team WRC+. I would not say they were a light hitting team but they weren't a good offensive team. They were just good enough. They won on their defense and bullpen.
Royals were next to last in the AL in homers. So while they may have had some players hit a few out they were among the worst teams at putting the ball over the fence.
Yes, and they still outhomered the Braves by a significant margin. Right now people are saying the Braves don't need to acquire some power because the royals succeeded without power. The royals didn't have a lot of power, but they have a ton more than the braves will have if they don't make some additions.
The royals did not have an OF with as little power as smith Inciarte and Markakis will have, so let's stop using them as an example of why that outfield alignment would work mmk? If that is the opening day OF they will not win, simple as that.
Of course we'll have to make additions to the current roster. Has anyone pretended that when we hope to compete, we'll do so with the lineup as presently constructed? Why do our HR totals of last year or this year mean anything moving forward?
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
My problem is that people seem to want to delude themselves into thinking that a Mallex, Inciarte and Markakis OF is OK going forward, that somehow the Braves can win without power. For this year, I don't care WHO they play in the OF. It's not going to make a difference. But, if you want to win and do it with consistency then you have to have a reasonable amount of power. History says that good teams generally have at least average HR power which most often translates to about 140 team HR.
Is it possible to win without power? ANYTHING is possible. But, it's not likely. Since 1990 only a handful have done it and those teams have mostly played in heavy pitching parks.
What you need, from a roster construction standpoint is, about: 25-35 HR from your 1B, 10-15 from your 2B, 5-10 from your SS, 20-30 from your 3B, 20-30 from your LF and RF, 10-20 out of CF, 20 or so combined out of your Catching position and 10-20 out of your bench. That's 140 HR at the low end and 210 on the high end of the spectrum. What you will get is somewhere in between year in and year out with variances supplied by the ups, downs and injuries to players.
The Braves are already behind the 8 ball because Freeman doesn't have the power of a traditional 1B, Markais is nowhere near the power of a good RF and everywhere else is a power desert.
The bottom line is that if the Braves want to be good and consistently good, then they have to find some power. They can get that through trade, say adding a Braun type (I am against this), through the draft and international signing (this will take 4-6 years), sign FA power (a good idea except there isn't much in the upcoming FA market) or by acquiring a number of prospects where you hope at least some will provide the power you need.
I look at long term roster creation and I see:
SS Albies
2B Swanson
#3 Unknown - not currently in the system (or is so far away it doesn't matter right now (Maitan???))
#4 Probably Freeman even though he is really miscast here unless he gets a lot better as he moves through his peak (he would be better as a 5 or 6)
#5 Unknown - not currently in the system
#6 Unknown - not currently in the system
#7 Probably catcher - unknown and not currently in the system
#8 Inciarte or M Smith
The 2012 Giants hit 103 HR. The 2014 Giants hit 132 HR. The 2015 Royals hit 139 HR.
The 2013 Cardinals, who made the WS, hit 125 HR. The 2014 Royals, who made the WS, hit 95 HR.
You guys are making way too big a deal out of some arbitrary HR line we supposedly need to hit. That's just not the way we're going to be built for the next few years, and it in no way means we can't compete. Obviously we want to eventually pitch really well, play great defense, and hit the crap out of the ball. But it will take time to build that complete a team.
But the recent recipe says that teams who pitch well and don't have any holes in the lineup are actually very well prepared to make deep playoff runs.
By the way, the most HR hit by a team who made the WS in the last 4 years was 178.
League rank in HR by WS participants:
2012 - #30/#16
2013 - #6/#27
2014 - #17/#30
2015 - #24/#9
The team ranked dead-last in HR has made the WS 2 of the last 4 seasons. It is statistically better, over the last 4 years at least, to be in the bottom half of the league in HR than the top half, and better to be in the bottom 5 in HR than the top 5.
The 2013 Cardinals, who made the WS, hit 125 HR. The 2014 Royals, who made the WS, hit 95 HR.
You guys are making way too big a deal out of some arbitrary HR line we supposedly need to hit. That's just not the way we're going to be built for the next few years, and it in no way means we can't compete. Obviously we want to eventually pitch really well, play great defense, and hit the crap out of the ball. But it will take time to build that complete a team.
But the recent recipe says that teams who pitch well and don't have any holes in the lineup are actually very well prepared to make deep playoff runs.
By the way, the most HR hit by a team who made the WS in the last 4 years was 178.
League rank in HR by WS participants:
2012 - #30/#16
2013 - #6/#27
2014 - #17/#30
2015 - #24/#9
The team ranked dead-last in HR has made the WS 2 of the last 4 seasons. It is statistically better, over the last 4 years at least, to be in the bottom half of the league in HR than the top half, and better to be in the bottom 5 in HR than the top 5.
I don't think anybody is saying the Braves as currently constructed have enough power to compete. However they are an example that you can bottom tier power and still win games as long as your other areas are strengths. And yes if the Braves had an outfield of Smith, Inciarte, and Markakis and they provided a WAR total of 6 or so then that team could compete depending on the construction of the rest of the team. It leaves little room for error but if your team is void of power then you better not have any other holes on the team.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
This idea that you have to have this or you have to have that is so dumb. Break the mold for once and quit following. The royals showed last year that you don't need a staff with multiple aces. They said, wonder if we can get a group together that can play solid defense. Have a few pitchers who are good and can go 6 or 7. And a bullpen you can't score on.
This notion that you have to have this or that to win is plain ignorant. There are many different ways to win. A team with 8 guys who OBP AT .330+ and have some speed in there should score plenty of runs. What you can't have is a team that Ks 25% and has an OBP OF .250 and no homers. That won't work imo. Would it be nice to have three 30 homer guys in the line up. Sure. but I am not going to say it is the only way. I just don't buy into that.
This notion that you have to have this or that to win is plain ignorant. There are many different ways to win. A team with 8 guys who OBP AT .330+ and have some speed in there should score plenty of runs. What you can't have is a team that Ks 25% and has an OBP OF .250 and no homers. That won't work imo. Would it be nice to have three 30 homer guys in the line up. Sure. but I am not going to say it is the only way. I just don't buy into that.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
We will win with the talent coming up. Whether we win a WS because of more homers is kind of lame. Plus, it's not like we aren't going to address that - it would be ignorant not too.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
The point is that a line up of ff, albies, Swanson, Ruiz, mallex, inciarte plus holes is woeful in power. Even your example of the royals shows that we are nowhere near that.
Braves are looking at being bottom 5 in hrs. That is not good enough. Middle of the road ok. Bottom 5 is going to require a ton of doubles and some crazy obp
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Very interesting. It almost looks like there's no correlation whatsoever between home runs and the World Series.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I'll play by adding the guys we might draft in June and sign internationally in July.
SS Albies
2B Swanson
1B Freeman
3B Senzel/Riley/Ruiz
RF Maitan
CF Acuna/Cruz/Pache/Ventura/Mallex
LF Peterson/Wilson/Davidson/Yepez
C Herbert/Guttierez/Centeno/Morales
Maitan is the youngest of the group. Realistically I would project him for 2021. That so happens to be the last year of Freeman's contract. We have potential/actual sources of power at first, third, right and left.
It actually is good enough, as my post above illustrates.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
Power across the league was down over the last four years but jumped back sharply last year. I have already said that teams like the Giants and Royals, who play in extreme pitching parks, can typically get away with less power (note I didn't say NO power). If you look at the examples you provided, even they are all within shouting distance of that 140HR mark except for the 2012 Giants and the 2014 Royals. Go look at every team that has made the playoffs since 1990 until now and you will see a pretty consistent them. I've always said that you need to be around league average or better which is about 140HR or better. Can you have too much power? Sure, everything has a monetary cost and if you have a team full of mashers, they are likely going to be expensive and draw funding away from other important area of the team like SP and the pen. Managers can also become reliant on the three run homer and manage to that and forget about the other aspects of good offense.
Most that I talk a lot with this about want to attribute HR power across the league to PED use, and try to use this as an argument as to why power isn't as important as the statistics seem to indicate. That assumes that PED use somehow benefits HR hitters more than it does pitchers or other players. But even so, when the league instituted testing, TEAM HR on average dropped about 10 per season across the board, but are now climbing again.
Unless the new park is going to play like the Giants park or the Dodgers or Padres then the Braves are going t have to field a reasonable amount of power or else they will get buried year after year.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
SS Albies
2B Swanson
1B Freeman (not that great at power for a traditional 1B, wrist injury, needs to get better and hit about 10 more HR per year)
3B Senzel/Riley/Ruiz (unknown, but none are currently showing that they will provide 20-30 hr per year)
RF Maitan (also unknown, but hopeful)
CF Acuna/Cruz/Pache/Ventura (unknown again, but not looking promising for power)
LF Peterson/Wilson/Davidson/Yepez (probably the worst LF combo of prospects you will see)
C Herbert/Guttierez/Centeno/Morales (very unknown)
It's possible this will be a winning lineup. I have my doubts. But, even if it is, even you are saying that this is a 2021 lineup. By then Albies and Swanson are probably in their 5th year of control and becoming expensive, Freeman is in serious decline.
2B Swanson
1B Freeman (not that great at power for a traditional 1B, wrist injury, needs to get better and hit about 10 more HR per year)
3B Senzel/Riley/Ruiz (unknown, but none are currently showing that they will provide 20-30 hr per year)
RF Maitan (also unknown, but hopeful)
CF Acuna/Cruz/Pache/Ventura (unknown again, but not looking promising for power)
LF Peterson/Wilson/Davidson/Yepez (probably the worst LF combo of prospects you will see)
C Herbert/Guttierez/Centeno/Morales (very unknown)
It's possible this will be a winning lineup. I have my doubts. But, even if it is, even you are saying that this is a 2021 lineup. By then Albies and Swanson are probably in their 5th year of control and becoming expensive, Freeman is in serious decline.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
It's not good enough in over a larger sample size.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
That's the way things are in baseball. Blowing up a team doesn't guarantee some perpetual future Nirvana. We'll have areas of weakness every year. Sometimes you find a long-term term solution. Sometimes its a shrt term patch. I'm ok with looking for more power, but I think the focus should be on overall value. No bonus points from me just because the value is in the form of power.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
I don't disagree with the sentiment in general but at some point power has to be addressed and so far it really hasn't been on the radar of the rebuild.
I'm not saying that in a trade with Houston for example that I would want Gattis and Valbuena over Bregman because they have more power. Far from it. What I am saying is that when making plans for the near and long term future of the team, the FO needs to be asking "where is the power going to come from?" and they need to have a legit answer, not some whistling past the graveyard response along the lines of "there's many ways to skin a cat."
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
actually the front office did make one deal for a bat they thought would deliver 20 home runs...I don't mention this to taint all similar attempts...but it is not correct tp say that the search for power has not been on the radar