What if we didnt break up the band

Hudson2 said:
He had a lot better season last year than years past but he'll have to do it more than just one season for it to be legit. He's hitting in a hitter friendly park and a lot of protection in that lineup and is at .211 with 0 homers so we'll see how he fairs when the season is over.
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I'm sure there is an obscure stat with a logarithm in its formula that says he is doing well offensively this year, but the fact is, Jason Heyward has never become the offensive player he should have been. He is a generational talent, but he is nowhere near as productive as other generational talents that are his peers. Jason Heyward is talented enough that he should be getting mentioned with Bryce Harper and Mike Trout as one of the best players in the league....players where you don't have to look at a number to see if they are great.
 
KB21 said:
I'm sure there is an obscure stat with a logarithm in its formula that says he is doing well offensively this year, but the fact is, Jason Heyward has never become the offensive player he should have been. He is a generational talent, but he is nowhere near as productive as other generational talents that are his peers. Jason Heyward is talented enough that he should be getting mentioned with Bryce Harper and Mike Trout as one of the best players in the league....players where you don't have to look at a number to see if they are great.
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I wished we lived in a world where we can appreciate what a player does and not what they should have been. But I guess with people did with Andruw then it's no surprise. #BravesWay
 
thewupk said:
121 WRC+ in 2015 with 20+ steals. Define it how you want but his offensive year was worth 20+ million in 2016 dollars.
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His offense was worth 20+ million in the same way Markakis is worth 11 million. Technically, you are right, but it's definitely not good value.

Now, the defense thing recalibrates the equation, but I would be hard pressed to be excited to pay him the contract that he got.
 
KB21 said:
I'm sure there is an obscure stat with a logarithm in its formula that says he is doing well offensively this year, but the fact is, Jason Heyward has never become the offensive player he should have been. He is a generational talent, but he is nowhere near as productive as other generational talents that are his peers. Jason Heyward is talented enough that he should be getting mentioned with Bryce Harper and Mike Trout as one of the best players in the league....players where you don't have to look at a number to see if they are great.
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Jason Heyward isn't being paid like a generational talent. This sounds more bitter than eating an entire bottle of vegemite with a side of kale.
 
chop2chip said:
His offense was worth 20+ million in the same way Markakis is worth 11 million. Technically, you are right, but it's definitely not good value.

Now, the defense thing recalibrates the equation, but I would be hard pressed to be excited to pay him the contract that he got.
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Sure. If Heyward was an average defensive player then that wouldn't be great value. However that's not the case. The landscape for what players are getting paid has massively changed from even a few years ago and people need to readjust their expectations. We are in a world where superstar top level players are going to get 30+ million. Good players get 20+ and average players are in the low teens. It's a good time to be a pro baseball player.
 
Jason Heyward has the 13th highest contract in baseball and is far from being the 13th best player in baseball. Using the vague stat wRC+, Freddie Freeman has a career wRC+ of 130 whereas Jason Heyward's is 116 for his career. Jason Heyward is getting $50 million more than Freddie Freeman, who is a superior offensive player.
 
KB21 said:
Jason Heyward has the 13th highest contract in baseball and is far from being the 13th best player in baseball. Using the vague stat wRC+, Freddie Freeman has a career wRC+ of 130 whereas Jason Heyward's is 116 for his career. Jason Heyward is getting $50 million more than Freddie Freeman, who is a superior offensive player.
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Some things to consider. Heywards contract was 2 years after Freeman with the benefit of free agency. So comparing the two directly isn't that great. If Freeman were to hit FA last year he would make quite a bit more than what he currently is. And how many players that are currently better than Heyward have hit FA or been extended in the past year and at an age that warrants a long term contract? Find me those players and tell me what they are making on a per year basis.
 
Regardless of your love affair with him the Cubs expect a lot more for their money than he's producing. Stupid them for giving it to him I guess.
 
What worries me about Heywood is that offensively he doesnt have a lot of room for decline before he loses a lot of value. If he is a slightly better than average hitter now then what happens when he gets older and starts to lose some of that athleticism and his body doesnt recover as quickly. I would still bank on Heywood having 1 crazy good career year.
 
Heyward had a slow start last year too and folks were on here jumping the gun, yet he ended the season with a 24 DRS on defense and almost .800 OPS (.797 to be exact). That said, I cannot say I'd take back trading him as we ended up getting a great package for Miller who was the main player we got for him.
 
thewupk said:
Sure. If Heyward was an average defensive player then that wouldn't be great value. However that's not the case. The landscape for what players are getting paid has massively changed from even a few years ago and people need to readjust their expectations. We are in a world where superstar top level players are going to get 30+ million. Good players get 20+ and average players are in the low teens. It's a good time to be a pro baseball player.
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I'm not arguing against Heyward the player. I'm arguing against us paying him the market rate. For the Cubs, it made perfect sense. They were in a position on the win curve where paying a premium for marginal improvement made perfect sense. For us it would be another one of those "right player, wrong time" moves (see Lester, Jon)

Hopefully in 2018 we will be in a position to pay the market rate for great players because at some point you have to do it if you want to be serious about competing.
 
Hudson2 said:
Regardless of your love affair with him the Cubs expect a lot more for their money than he's producing. Stupid them for giving it to him I guess.
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Dude, it's May 7th. They paid for 4,800 at bats from the guy and he's currently at 110.
 
chop2chip said:
I'm not arguing against Heyward the player. I'm arguing against us paying him the market rate. For the Cubs, it made perfect sense. They were in a position on the win curve where paying a premium for marginal improvement made perfect sense. For us it would be another one of those "right player, wrong time" moves (see Lester, Jon)

Hopefully in 2018 we will be in a position to pay the market rate for great players because at some point you have to do it if you want to be serious about competing.
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I can agree with that. I still think it is a good value because I do put a lot of stock in his defensive numbers. But the Braves are a mid market team at best and I don't think that's going to change anytime soon. They put their money on Freeman and will have to find ways to fill in around him for the time being.
 
cajunrevenge said:
What worries me about Heywood is that offensively he doesnt have a lot of room for decline before he loses a lot of value. If he is a slightly better than average hitter now then what happens when he gets older and starts to lose some of that athleticism and his body doesnt recover as quickly. I would still bank on Heywood having 1 crazy good career year.
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Then he will decline and be overpaid which happens to almost every player. I mean how do you think the Tigers feel right now about Cabrera? The one thing I will argue in favor of Heyward and any big deal that he signed is that while it's a risk he will decline because he has a lot of value in his defense is that he hit FA at such a young age that a lot of that is really mitigated. Can it happen? Sure it can happen to anybody. But the odds of that are a lot less than for someone over near or over 30.
 
Niners needs to read this OP... the two best players are Melvin and La Stella.... LMAO

How do you tag him? He needs this
 
thewupk said:
Then he will decline and be overpaid which happens to almost every player. I mean how do you think the Tigers feel right now about Cabrera? The one thing I will argue in favor of Heyward and any big deal that he signed is that while it's a risk he will decline because he has a lot of value in his defense is that he hit FA at such a young age that a lot of that is really mitigated. Can it happen? Sure it can happen to anybody. But the odds of that are a lot less than for someone over near or over 30.
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I think the Tigers feel pretty good about Cabrera with his .974 OPS last year and .800 OPS early in the year this year.
 
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