Wisler - sustainable?

GovClintonTyree

GovClintonTyree

<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
I've been very impressed with Matt Wisler, despite his low K rate. His stuff is plenty good enough and he has very good command. But his BABIP, fly ball tendency and FIP look ominous. I have always believed the only way you can be a consistently successful outlier on the K/9 scale is to be a sinkerballer. And he ain't one.

Any thoughts on this? Stat guys, are there any underlying numbers or trends that would chalk this up to anything but luck?
 
He's gonna have to start striking more guys out. I think he can. But all good pitchers have a strong k to bb ratio. There are no exceptions.
 
If things go well he could be another Julio Teheran. It will matter quite a bit whether the walk rate is over 3, in the high 2s, or low 2s. And of course, he like all fly ball pitchers will go through stretches where he gives up a lot of home runs.
 
Yeah, he's definitely going to have to improve or he's pretty much screwed. Fortunately he's still largely getting his feet wet in the Majors and has time to adjust.
 
How many times do we have to see a pitcher with "decent stuff but excellent command" have some success and then fall apart before we realize those guys are nothing more than MOR pitchers? Wisler and Blair are exactly that, MOR guys, just like Minor and JJ and Medlen were before them. They will look great some days, and have some clunker games mixed in, but they will settle in the 3.5-4.0 ERA range.

They are valuable to a winning team, but should be flipped for other assets when they have 1-3 years of control left.
 
I'm not sure if Wisler is anything more than a #3, but he has good stuff which should help him improves upon his peripherals.

His strikeouts have been okay this year and his walk numbers are great. His biggest issue is he is an absolute fly ball pitcher who gives up a ton of homeruns.
 
Actually his HR/fly ball rate is not bad this year (9.1%). There have been some very solid pitchers who have had much higher for a full season. For example, Ervin Santana had an 18.9% rate in in 2012. In evaluating pitchers, you have to recognize the small sample issues involved in HR/fly ball rate data and allow for the likelihood that things will regress back to normal after a spike.

The part of Wisler's performance this year that is not going to be sustained is the BABIP of .183.
 
nsacpi said:
Actually his HR/fly ball rate is not bad this year (9.1%). There have been some very solid pitchers who have had much higher for a full season. For example, Ervin Santana had an 18.9% rate in in 2012. In evaluating pitchers, you have to recognize the small sample issues involved in HR/fly ball rate data and allow for the likelihood that things will regress back to normal after a spike.

The part of Wisler's performance this year that is not going to be sustained is the BABIP of .183.
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Ervin Santana's biggest problem has always been his HR/FB % I'm not sure that's a good counter factual.
 
Enscheff said:
How many times do we have to see a pitcher with "decent stuff but excellent command" have some success and then fall apart before we realize those guys are nothing more than MOR pitchers? Wisler and Blair are exactly that, MOR guys, just like Minor and JJ and Medlen were before them. They will look great some days, and have some clunker games mixed in, but they will settle in the 3.5-4.0 ERA range.

They are valuable to a winning team, but should be flipped for other assets when they have 1-3 years of control left.
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I'd take a bunch of MOR guys like those three. All three were fine pitchers until injuries derailed their careers. Medlen still may be.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
I've been very impressed with Matt Wisler, despite his low K rate. His stuff is plenty good enough and he has very good command. But his BABIP, fly ball tendency and FIP look ominous. I have always believed the only way you can be a consistently successful outlier on the K/9 scale is to be a sinkerballer. And he ain't one.

Any thoughts on this? Stat guys, are there any underlying numbers or trends that would chalk this up to anything but luck?
Click to expand...

I am not as high on Wisler long term as others here, I see him topping out as a number three or four and possibly ending up a number 5 too. I see Blair's potential to be more than that because he seems very smart and already gets a lot of ground balls and weak contact. Blair has the potential to turn in a MLB career like Tim Hudson IMO. The good news for Wisler is having Inciarte and Smith in the outfield could help him as much as anyone.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
I'd take a bunch of MOR guys like those three. All three were fine pitchers until injuries derailed their careers. Medlen still may be.
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Until injury derailed their careers, which happens to a majority of pitchers. So ride them for a few years then flip them before they get hurt.

The Braves of all teams should have learned that lesson by now.
 
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