- STARTS TODAY AT 7PM - 2016 June Amateur Draft Discussion

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KB21 said:
When looking at Kyle Lewis and the "level of competition" concerns with him, I go back to Kris Bryant. The guy came out of a similar small conference team. His strike out rate as a junior was around 15%. He hit a home run every 7.2 ABs. Kyle's is around 15% and hits a home run every 10.9 ABs.

Even if there is some swing and miss in his swing, you have a guy who is legitimately a 30+ home run potential power bat with the ability to stick in right field. He projects to be what Jason Heyward should have been.
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I really like the Lewis and Bryant comparisons, and they do seem to be performing much the same against similar competition:

Lewis - .425/.554/.774 1.328 OPS, .71 K/BB
Bryant - .329/.493/.820 1.313 OPS, .67 K/BB

Bryant had a higher ISO (.491 vs .349), while Lewis hits a lot more singles.

Bryant was also a stud from the moment he stepped foot onto campus in San Diego (OPS of 1.081 and 1.154 his first 2 season), while Lewis has grown by leaps and bounds (OPS of .722 and 1.100 his first 2 seasons). I would expect that from a kid who didn't play baseball full time until he was a senior in high school though.

Bryant put up a very pedestrian .223/.304/.369 line in the Cape in ~150 PAs after his freshman season. After his spohomore season he was tabbed for the USA team, but I think they eleminated baseball from the olypmics so he didn't play any game.

Lewis played in the Great Lakes League (no idea how good that is) and put up a .342/.425/.533 line in ~185 PAs, as well as 8 PAs in the Cape (meaningless sample) after his freshman season. After his sophomore season he had ~160 PAs in the Cape and put up a .300/.344/.500 line.

The fact Lewis plays CF and is projected at having an outside shot at sticking there as a pro tells me he is a little more athletic than Bryant, but I don't think it's much of an advantage.

I wish I could find split data for Ray since it's the main concern I have with him. It would be pretty bad to select a platoon OFer with the 3rd pick of the draft.
 
Enscheff said:
I really like the Lewis and Bryant comparisons, and they do seem to be performing much the same against similar competition:

Lewis - .425/.554/.774 1.328 OPS, .71 K/BB
Bryant - .329/.493/.820 1.313 OPS, .67 K/BB

Bryant had a higher ISO (.491 vs .349), while Lewis hits a lot more singles.

Bryant was also a stud from the moment he stepped foot onto campus in San Diego (OPS of 1.081 and 1.154 his first 2 season), while Lewis has grown by leaps and bounds (OPS of .722 and 1.100 his first 2 seasons). I would expect that from a kid who didn't play baseball full time until he was a senior in high school though.

Bryant put up a very pedestrian .223/.304/.369 line in the Cape in ~150 PAs after his freshman season. After his spohomore season he was tabbed for the USA team, but I think they eleminated baseball from the olypmics so he didn't play any game.

Lewis played in the Great Lakes League (no idea how good that is) and put up a .342/.425/.533 line in ~185 PAs, as well as 8 PAs in the Cape (meaningless sample) after his freshman season. After his sophomore season he had ~160 PAs in the Cape and put up a .300/.344/.500 line.

The fact Lewis plays CF and is projected at having an outside shot at sticking there as a pro tells me he is a little more athletic than Bryant, but I don't think it's much of an advantage.

I wish I could find split data for Ray since it's the main concern I have with him. It would be pretty bad to select a platoon OFer with the 3rd pick of the draft.
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I've looked, but I haven't been able to find any splits on Ray. There is a website called collegebaseballsplits.com, but they stopped taking data in 2013 it appears.
 
BA's Mock Draft 3 is up. The top 5:

1. Puk (Phillies)
2. Lewis (Reds)
3. Pint (Braves)
4. Moniak (Rockies)
5. Ray (Brewers)

In their Mock Draft 2, the top 5 were the same except they had the Brewers taking Groome.
 
Mayo on MLB.com just released his newest mock on the 12th:

1. Lewis
2. Puk
3. Groome
4. Moniak
5. Perez
6. Senzel
7. Ray
8. Garrett
9. Pint
10. Rutherford

I have to say I like Groome, but I would rather see the Braves end up with Lewis or Senzel plus some over slot guys at 40/44.
 
Senzel has become more impressive to me.

It might sound paradoxical, but I think the higher you go within the first round the more important a player's floor becomes. This is because the guys taken top 5 will generally have high ceilings. So you need to focus on things like maturity (both of their games and their personalities, or makeup to coin a word). There is no need to take a big risk with a pick like the one we have.
 
If we do get the #1 pick next year, adding Groome and possibly Houck would put our pitching up there with anybody's.
 
nsacpi said:
Senzel has become more impressive to me.

It might sound paradoxical, but I think the higher you go within the first round the more important a player's floor becomes. This is because the guys taken top 5 will generally have high ceilings. So you need to focus on things like maturity (both of their games and their personalities, or makeup to coin a word). There is no need to take a big risk with a pick like the one we have.
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I agree for this particular draft, but that's because there isn't a HS guy with a superstar ceiling like an Upton. Since there isn't a player that's worth taking a chance on, I think it's smart to go for a high floor guy that will sign under slot and allow the team to add some over slot guys at 40/44.
 
Not a pint fan. Liked him in the arm. But it's big velocity only. Not command control or secondary stuff.

I'd take groome at 3 and that is the only hs pitcher.

If groome is gone than I'm looking at a bat or maybe puk.

Ray isn't a big power guy and he's lh. Not ideal. But I think he's got a good shot to give us what heyward gave us in rf, maybe better obp.
 
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