rico43
<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
I hope it's not this Ian Anderson.
Why not? He's a heavy horse. Projects thick, thick as ... oh, never mind.
- STARTS TODAY AT 7PM - 2016 June Amateur Draft Discussion
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Why not? He's a heavy horse. Projects thick, thick as ... oh, never mind.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Didn't JC say a while back the Braves would like to take a college bat with their first pick?
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I love the Braves' Way, but I don't want to be living in the past.
Julio3000
<B>A Chip Off the Old Rock</B>
We're not supposed to take anything they say at face value.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
agreed, it's silly to.
This is where I do actually get completely behind the brass. The one thing I'm COMPLETELY sure of is that our scouts and decision-makers have a much better feel for whichever player's the best availabale when we pick than I do - or anyone on this board for that matter. My personal preferences are based on extremely little information. I've seen clips of these guys online, seen Ray on TV a couple times, etc. - our scouts have seen them live (more than a few times), Kiley, Brian Bridges, and Dave Trembley have all seen each of them several times, and Blakely and Roy Clark have seen them at least a couple times, plus they've all seen much more video of them than we have. If they - as a group - come to the decision that Ray should be our guy at #3, I'd have absolutely no problem with it at all. Following the same logic, I'd have no problem if they said "we know we need to add offense somewhere, but we simply couldn't pass on a Groome (or Pint) when he dropped into our laps".
Given the consensus that there's no clear difference between most of the players at the top of the draft, I certainly think our guys are much better prepared to know the subtle differences between them than I am.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The discussion around here has focused on our first pick. But I think the four early picks outside the first round (#40, #44, #76, #80) are also very important.
Here is who we have taken over the years with picks in that range (#31 to the end of the third round):
HS pitcher (25): Marquis, Atilano, Beau Jones, Evarts, Rasmus, Deval, Nation, Belisle, Butler, Digby, Nelson, Bacot, Reyes, Lyman, Locke, Spruill, Stoval, Fulenchek, Bell, Morton, Harrison, Stevens, Rogers, Salazar, Guardado
HS position (19): Herr, Kelly Johnson, Saltalamacchia, Freeman, Gilmore, Lipka, Davidson, Scharrer, Barthel, McCann, Campbell, Brignac, Velasquez, Langerhans, Manning, Schafer, de la Rosa, Riley, Herbert
C pitcher (8): Meyer, Hursh, Evans, Wood, Kimbrel, Hale, Povse, Minter
C position (11): Richard Lewis, Fontaine, Simmons, Cunningham, Ahmed, Caratini, Stern, Holt, Hicks, Leonard, Kubitza
Other: Escobar
In this part of the draft we have favored high school players, though this changed a bit under Wren.
Of the 24 HS pitchers taken, about half have made it to the majors, assuming some of the ones now in the minors might make it. The most successful ones have been Marquis, Belisle, Harrison, Locke and Morton.
There have been greater successes among the 17 HS position picks: Freeman, McCann, KJ, Salty. Assuming a couple still in the minors make it, about half of this group will have reached the majors.
Among the 8 college pitchers, two have been very good picks: Kimbrel and Wood. Dustin Evans never made the majors, but the rest either have or still have a shot. The yield is pretty impressive for this group.
Among the 11 college players, there is one great success (Simmons), but an unusual one given that the Braves apparently thought he was going to be a pitcher. Slightly over half have made the majors or are likely to.
The most interesting finding about this segment of the draft is that the group to which we have devoted the most picks (HS pitchers) is the one with the least impressive yield. With those next four picks, I would focus on HS players who play premium defensive positions (C, SS, CF) and college pitchers. I'm not opposed to taking a HS pitcher or college hitter with those picks, but think we should take into account our relatively poor track record with those groups.
Here is who we have taken over the years with picks in that range (#31 to the end of the third round):
HS pitcher (25): Marquis, Atilano, Beau Jones, Evarts, Rasmus, Deval, Nation, Belisle, Butler, Digby, Nelson, Bacot, Reyes, Lyman, Locke, Spruill, Stoval, Fulenchek, Bell, Morton, Harrison, Stevens, Rogers, Salazar, Guardado
HS position (19): Herr, Kelly Johnson, Saltalamacchia, Freeman, Gilmore, Lipka, Davidson, Scharrer, Barthel, McCann, Campbell, Brignac, Velasquez, Langerhans, Manning, Schafer, de la Rosa, Riley, Herbert
C pitcher (8): Meyer, Hursh, Evans, Wood, Kimbrel, Hale, Povse, Minter
C position (11): Richard Lewis, Fontaine, Simmons, Cunningham, Ahmed, Caratini, Stern, Holt, Hicks, Leonard, Kubitza
Other: Escobar
In this part of the draft we have favored high school players, though this changed a bit under Wren.
Of the 24 HS pitchers taken, about half have made it to the majors, assuming some of the ones now in the minors might make it. The most successful ones have been Marquis, Belisle, Harrison, Locke and Morton.
There have been greater successes among the 17 HS position picks: Freeman, McCann, KJ, Salty. Assuming a couple still in the minors make it, about half of this group will have reached the majors.
Among the 8 college pitchers, two have been very good picks: Kimbrel and Wood. Dustin Evans never made the majors, but the rest either have or still have a shot. The yield is pretty impressive for this group.
Among the 11 college players, there is one great success (Simmons), but an unusual one given that the Braves apparently thought he was going to be a pitcher. Slightly over half have made the majors or are likely to.
The most interesting finding about this segment of the draft is that the group to which we have devoted the most picks (HS pitchers) is the one with the least impressive yield. With those next four picks, I would focus on HS players who play premium defensive positions (C, SS, CF) and college pitchers. I'm not opposed to taking a HS pitcher or college hitter with those picks, but think we should take into account our relatively poor track record with those groups.
It's interesting you say this because Lewis isn't a typical college bat. Typically, early first round college bats are like Swanson...nearly finished products you expect to move quickly through your system. Senzel fits that mold perfectly, and Ray fits that mold as well, though Ray may have a little more projection left than Senzel.
But Lewis is not polished, and is nowhere near the finished product of a typical early pick college hitter. He was late to focus on baseball, and he has improved by leaps and bounds over his college career. He has some problematic pre-swing mechanics that will have to cleaned up at the pro level, but I would say he has much more star potential than guys like Ray and Senzel.
And with that higher potential comes additional bust potential. Pretty much what you get with an elite HS player.
The early part of the draft is where you find stars, not average players. I say go for the guys that can be stars with pick #3. To me, those guys are Groome and Lewis. If they bust, that sucks. But if they make it...you have a middle of the order monster or an ace. If Ray or Senzel make it you have Ray Lankford or Bill Mueller...useful players for sure, but not franchise cornerstones.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Or Longoria. Or Posey. Or Gordon. Or Tulowitzki. Or Braun. Shall I continue?
All "polished" college players. We have to remember that "high floor" college players, even the "polished" ones, can also have high ceilings. I think Senzel is the high ceiling high floor guy in this year's draft.
Perhaps, but I think there is a better chance Lewis turns into Dave Winfield than Senzel turns into Longoria. So I would take Lewis.
bravos4evr
Still Playing the Waiting Game
I agree. thing is, if you look at the history of the draft, scouts tend to get it right as the majority of players that stick in MLB com out of the first round and the higher the pick, the better that player tends to be long term. It's not perfect as so many variables exist,but the team should take whoever they feel is the BPA and deal with the results of their choice.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think we will have to just agree to disagree on that one.
I don't even disagree that much actually. I wouldn't be upset if the Braves tabbed Senzel at #3.
The players I want them to stay away from are Rutherford, Ray and Pint.
I wouldn't, because your comparisons make no sense at all. Posey, Gordon, and Braun had massive numbers in college, they aren't in any shape or form comparable to Ray/Senzel. Tulo's progression in college is far more similar to Lewis than Senzel. Longoria minus the defense might be a decent comp for Senzel's optimum ceiling, but even then Longoria was simply just had one weird down year in college mixed with greatness.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Under the category of toolsy unpolished college hitters from obscure 4-year college programs taken early in the first round (top 10 picks) since 2000:
Rickie Weeks
Nick Markakis
Michael Choice
Hunter Dozier
Caveat emptor. Especially those looking for the next Dave Winfield.
Yes, it is not that big a sample. Not too many such players get picked early in the first round. Perhaps there are reasons for that.
Rickie Weeks
Nick Markakis
Michael Choice
Hunter Dozier
Caveat emptor. Especially those looking for the next Dave Winfield.
Yes, it is not that big a sample. Not too many such players get picked early in the first round. Perhaps there are reasons for that.
This is where I'm at actually as well. I'd prefer Lewis or Groome be the choice, but wouldn't be upset with Senzel. Ray or Pint would annoy me, I don't want us near those two.
Of course that would be a fine end result for a starter, but that's best case scenario. If we are drafting in the top 5, I want the player we are drafting to be a potential 5-6 WAR player, not a best case 3.5 WAR type player. Those are guys you go after in the last third of the first round and on, not top 5 or 10. And I don't see any way Ray jacks 30 HRs like Lankford did in his peak years.
bravos4evr
Still Playing the Waiting Game
It's rare that you can predict guys becoming 5-6 WAR players tho. For every Chipper,A-rod or Harper there are Tim Beckham, Josh Vitters and Donovan Tate. Projection is kinda all scouts have to work with most of the time, and injuries, talent and development don't always ....well, lol, DEVELOP!
Well obviously you can't predict it for sure, but you can see if the potential is likely there or not. With Ray people are talking about an upside of a guy who posts a low .800s OPS with decent corner OF defense and good speed. That's most definitely not close to a 5-6 WAR guy.
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