International News, Rumor and Signing Thread

again: fangraphs putting a guy with:
-42 less innings pitched
-higher BB rate
-(way) higher ERA
-less IP/start
-5 less games started

.2 wins behind is simply a joke. Teheran has been way more valuable as a pitcher. He's produced much more for his team. of coure his BABIP will regress. but he's produced so much more to this point. it's not close.
 
thewupk said:
I'd rather my pitcher strike out a lot of guys than rely on all the balls put in play to be caught all the time to be successful.
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so Wood's 5 measly, average innings were better than 6.2 from Wisler. got it. makes a ton of sense, except when actual games are concerned. why even pitch when we've got FIP?
 
CJ9 said:
Has there been any connection between us and Ona or Gutierrez, or are you guys just hoping that it happens? Just wasn't sure if I missed anything.
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hopes and dreams.. no reports.

Ona is still tied to the Friars..
but so is :
#4 Lazo
?? Morejon (don't think he has been declared yet)
#3 Luis Almanzar
#5 Gabriel Arias
#9 Jeison Rosario
#15 Jordy Barley
#28 Justin Lopez
#29 Triso Ornelas

I don't see how they are going to land all of these guys. so you figure someone will snag them.. might as well be the Braves..
 
thewupk said:
I'd rather my pitcher strike out a lot of guys than rely on all the balls put in play to be caught all the time to be successful.
Click to expand...

He is striking guys out tho, it's not 10/9 or anything, but 8+ is good enough, and he has got a ton of weak contact, especially infield popups.

I love batter WAR and think it's damn excellent, but pitcher WAR ....... IMO, it's still too K reliant and ignores that some pitchers can initiate weak contact.
 
yeezus said:
so Wood's 5 measly, average innings were better than 6.2 from Wisler. got it. makes a ton of sense, except when actual games are concerned. why even pitch when we've got FIP?
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So 6 innings of average pitching is better than 5 innings of good pitching?
 
bravesfanMatt said:
hopes and dreams.. no reports.

Ona is still tied to the Friars..
but so is :
#4 Lazo
?? Morejon (don't think he has been declared yet)
#3 Luis Almanzar
#5 Gabriel Arias
#9 Jeison Rosario
#15 Jordy Barley
#28 Justin Lopez
#29 Triso Ornelas

I don't see how they are going to land all of these guys. so you figure someone will snag them.. might as well be the Braves..
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Yeah, we'll see. Didn't Preller basically build his career off his success with international prospects? That Padres list looks like a crazy haul.

It is kind of disappointing that we've been the team rumored for a long time to blow out the international money, and it looks like Maitan is the only elite guy we'll get. I'm certainly happy we're getting him though. It would be nice to add another elite level guy.
 
bravos4evr said:
He is striking guys out tho, it's not 10/9 or anything, but 8+ is good enough, and he has got a ton of weak contact, especially infield popups.

I love batter WAR and think it's damn excellent, but pitcher WAR ....... IMO, it's still too K reliant and ignores that some pitchers can initiate weak contact.
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I prefer brefs version of it. Still how do you account for a low BABIP? Who gets that credit? I don't think Julio is solely responsible for that. Some of it? Sure. Pitchers can initiate weak contact. However luck is still a pretty large factor in that.
 
yeezus said:
again: fangraphs putting a guy with:
-42 less innings pitched
-higher BB rate
-(way) higher ERA
-less IP/start
-5 less games started

.2 wins behind is simply a joke. Teheran has been way more valuable as a pitcher. He's produced much more for his team. of coure his BABIP will regress. but he's produced so much more to this point. it's not close.
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I don't think anybody is arguing with you either.
 
thewupk said:
A FIP based WAR will always be this way. What it doesn't account for is Teherans 206 BABIP against. And let's be honest. Expecting that to continue isn't very likely. Teheran has been super lucky in that regard. Look at baseball-ref's version which has Julio at 2.8. That is more production based and more in line with what you would expect when looking at ERA.

So if you think Julio is responsible for that low BABIP then look at bref. If you think it's primarily due to luck and you would expect some regression to the mean then look at fangraphs version.
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See that my problem with the use of BABIP. People always assume luck. But good pitchers that are having career years (or entering their peak) will always have a low BABIP. Now we shouldn't expect JT to maintain that level over several years, but it's entirely possible if he is peaking that he could maintain a similar level over his peak years.
 
CJ9 said:
Yeah, we'll see. Didn't Preller basically build his career off his success with international prospects? That Padres list looks like a crazy haul.

It is kind of disappointing that we've been the team rumored for a long time to blow out the international money, and it looks like Maitan is the only elite guy we'll get. I'm certainly happy we're getting him though. It would be nice to add another elite level guy.
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Yea the Padres might end up with the better 'haul' even if we get Maitan.

Of course -- most of these guys will never be heard from again lol.
 
thewupk said:
So 6 innings of average pitching is better than 5 innings of good pitching?
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Only FIP has Wood's game as "good." 5 innings, 2 runs, 10 base runners is not what I call "good." 6.2 innings with the same amount of base runners and same amount of runs is somehow average. if I had to choose, pre-game, one of those games for my guy to go out and throw in order to win the game, I know which I'm choosing.
 
Carp said:
See that my problem with the use of BABIP. People always assume luck. But good pitchers that are having career years (or entering their peak) will always have a low BABIP. Now we shouldn't expect JT to maintain that level over several years, but it's entirely possible if he is peaking that he could maintain a similar level over his peak years.
Click to expand...

Or could it be that being lucky in a given year is the reason for the career year and not some uptick in performance? I mean we see it with hitters all the time. Chris Johnson 2013? Sadly some people (Wren) still buy into that somewhat and that can get you in trouble. Still, I expect Julio's BABIP to be in the 250 range at the minimum if stays healthy and pitches all year. Anything lower is just extremely unlikely in a decent sized amount of innings. The lowest Greg MAddux ever got to was in the 240's and he had a career mark of 280. There is just a limit of how low that can get. I certainly don't expect a 206 BABIP the rest of the way.
 
yeezus said:
Only FIP has Wood's game as "good." 5 innings, 2 runs, 10 base runners is not what I call "good." 6.2 innings with the same amount of base runners and same amount of runs is somehow average. if I had to choose, pre-game, one of those games for my guy to go out and throw in order to win the game, I know which I'm choosing.
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Yeah. I would certainly prefer Wislers 4.1 ERA and 6.3 innings per game over his last 9 starts over Wood's last 6 starts of 2.80 ERA and 5.8 innings per game. Those extra 2-3 outs per game are super impressive.
 
yeezus said:
or because throwing 1.2 more innings with the same amount of everything is preferable if you want to win a game. insane concept.
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Except it hasn't been trending that way. Wood has gotten better as the year as progressed. Wisler has not. That tends to happen when you are riding high on a super low BABIP and regression hits you in the ass.
 
yeezus said:
or because throwing 1.2 more innings with the same amount of everything is preferable if you want to win a game. insane concept.
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Sure, with the same allowance rates, more innings per start are preferable. But that wasn't the question (which I presume you knew, and decided to ignore, for mad snark purposes).

The question was whether more innings at lesser quality is preferable to fewer innings at higher quality. I'd usually opt for the latter, but it is context dependent; if a team sports a terrible bullpen, they'd probably prefer the pitcher who trots out longer appearances, provided the drop in performance otherwise isn't too great (for instance: why I think the Shields acquisition made some sense for the White Sox).
 
Preacher said:
Yea the Padres might end up with the better 'haul' even if we get Maitan.

Of course -- most of these guys will never be heard from again lol.
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I still have a feeling Coppi is going to pull something off.. he seems to want to be the guy who gets the attention. I have a feeling we are going to get Maitan and the others we are linked to.. but 1 or 2 other really big names..
 
jpx7 said:
Sure, with the same allowance rates, more innings per start are preferable. But that wasn't the question (which I presume you knew, and decided to ignore, for mad snark purposes).

The question was whether more innings at lesser quality is preferable to fewer innings at higher quality. I'd usually opt for the latter, but it is context dependent; if a team sports a terrible bullpen, they'd probably prefer the pitcher who trots out longer appearances, provided the drop in performance otherwise isn't too great (for instance: why I think the Shields acquisition made some sense for the White Sox).
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I thought we were talking about the singular games.

I never said I definitely prefer Wisler over Wood moving forward for this year (beyond this year I certainly do, though). I said they were pretty close in production/performance - that's it.
 
yeezus said:
I thought we were talking about the singular games.

I never said I definitely prefer Wisler over Wood moving forward for this year (beyond this year I certainly do, though). I said they were pretty close in production/performance - that's it.
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I thought we were talking about the average sort of game we'd prefer a starter to produce (better/shorter versus longer/lesser), using Wood and Wisler as alliterative exemplars. Going forward, I'd take Wisler, purely on contract and injury bases—but this year I do think Wood's pre-injury production/performance was pretty easily preferable to Wisler's, looking at the metrics.
 
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