International News, Rumor and Signing Thread

thewupk said:
I would say there is quite a huge difference between Wood's 3.24 FIP and Wislers 4.61 FIP. Don't get caught up in ERA. Wisler has an advantage of 70 points in BABIP against that is helping close the gap significantly. Wood has been substantially better and it's not really close.
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The more I see Wood's FIP thrown around the more I distrust the stat. Not because of any comparison with Wisler - I agree with the assessment that he's a mid-rotation starter - but how Wood compares with Teheran. The only stats that Wood has an advantage over Teheran in are HR/9 and K/9. FIP seems to overstate the value of the strikeout somewhat, and really overstates the negative effect of a home run for a pitcher who doesn't allow many baserunners. If you want to call them similar pitchers that's a reasonable argument based on stats, but there is no way in hell that any reliable stat should have Wood a half run per 9 better than Teheran to this point.
 
I don't know about you guys, but I'd be alright with us taking a heavy run at Yuliesky Gurriel, especially if it made it easier to sign his brother now/after October.
 
DirkPiggler said:
The more I see Wood's FIP thrown around the more I distrust the stat. Not because of any comparison with Wisler - I agree with the assessment that he's a mid-rotation starter - but how Wood compares with Teheran. The only stats that Wood has an advantage over Teheran in are HR/9 and K/9. FIP seems to overstate the value of the strikeout somewhat, and really overstates the negative effect of a home run for a pitcher who doesn't allow many baserunners. If you want to call them similar pitchers that's a reasonable argument based on stats, but there is no way in hell that any reliable stat should have Wood a half run per 9 better than Teheran to this point.
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Wood is also generating a lot of ground balls.
But their WARs being .2 wins apart is the really crazy thing to me.
 
praeceps93 said:
I don't know about you guys, but I'd be alright with us taking a heavy run at Yuliesky Gurriel, especially if it made it easier to sign his brother now/after October.
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I think they might be too pricey.. I still want to steal Ona from the Friars personally.

/I know, I know..
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I think they might be too pricey.. I still want to steal Ona from the Friars personally.

/I know, I know..
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Yeah, but what else are we gonna spend the money on? Next FA class sucks and we're supposed to have an expanded payroll, where else will that money actually be useful?
 
praeceps93 said:
Yeah, but what else are we gonna spend the money on? Next FA class sucks and we're supposed to have an expanded payroll, where else will that money actually be useful?
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I am not saying we don't spend the money.. I just think we can get more bang for our bucks over going for a suspected 32 year old Cuban just to get his brother... get Vladimir then..
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I think they might be too pricey.. I still want to steal Ona from the Friars personally.

/I know, I know..
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Would love to add Ona, I think the ship has sailed on Lazirito and frankly I'm OK with that considering how much money he's going to command. I'd rather get really aggressive with guys like Ona and Vladimir.
 
yeezus said:
FIP is great and all but actual production is what actually counts and has to be factored in. Wisler is allowing less base runners. I won't get caught up in the joke that fWAR for pitchers apparently is (the one that has Julio a whopping .2 wins better than Alex Wood - which is rather ridiculous). Wisler is able to get deeper into games on average as well, which is something that also matters to me. I'm sure if Wood were working into the 7th on the reg he'd have higher ERA and FIP than he currently does, but routinely getting yanked before the 7th has likely helped him.
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Production is what counts. However would you rather have the guy with a 4.6 FIP and 250 BABIP against or the guy with a 3.25 FIP and 320 BABIP against going forward? Not to mention both players have been trending in the opposite direction.
 
Preacher said:
Would love to add Ona, I think the ship has sailed on Lazirito and frankly I'm OK with that considering how much money he's going to command. I'd rather get really aggressive with guys like Ona and Vladimir.
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Has there been any connection between us and Ona or Gutierrez, or are you guys just hoping that it happens? Just wasn't sure if I missed anything.
 
thewupk said:
Production is what counts. However would you rather have the guy with a 4.6 FIP and 250 BABIP against or the guy with a 3.25 FIP and 320 BABIP against going forward? Not to mention both players have been trending in the opposite direction.
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sure, BUT, the problem with FIP is it's much more successful as a predictor than it is a demonstrator. AND, it sometimes whiffs on pitchers who specialize in generating weak contact. Guys do outperform their FIP all the time, and by significant margins.
 
thewupk said:
Not to mention both players have been trending in the opposite direction.
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One is pitching still and the other currently isn't?
Besides, Wood had four good starts in a row (didn't top 6.1 IP in any of them) and then that bad start before landing on the DL.

I mean, according to FIP, Wood's 5 innings and 10 baserunners and 2 ER in those 5 innings was significantly better than Wisler's most recent with 6.2 IP with 10 baserunners. But I know which game I'd rather see my pitcher throw.
 
CJ9 said:
Has there been any connection between us and Ona or Gutierrez, or are you guys just hoping that it happens? Just wasn't sure if I missed anything.
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Just hope, as far as I'm aware. Nothing specific. Makes some sense, considering Padres would be spending a buttload of money on all the guys they're connected to so some of their connections could end up being overcome, and Gutierrez isn't connected to anyone at this point (I believe).
 
DirkPiggler said:
The more I see Wood's FIP thrown around the more I distrust the stat. Not because of any comparison with Wisler - I agree with the assessment that he's a mid-rotation starter - but how Wood compares with Teheran. The only stats that Wood has an advantage over Teheran in are HR/9 and K/9. FIP seems to overstate the value of the strikeout somewhat, and really overstates the negative effect of a home run for a pitcher who doesn't allow many baserunners. If you want to call them similar pitchers that's a reasonable argument based on stats, but there is no way in hell that any reliable stat should have Wood a half run per 9 better than Teheran to this point.
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A FIP based WAR will always be this way. What it doesn't account for is Teherans 206 BABIP against. And let's be honest. Expecting that to continue isn't very likely. Teheran has been super lucky in that regard. Look at baseball-ref's version which has Julio at 2.8. That is more production based and more in line with what you would expect when looking at ERA.

So if you think Julio is responsible for that low BABIP then look at bref. If you think it's primarily due to luck and you would expect some regression to the mean then look at fangraphs version.
 
bravos4evr said:
sure, BUT, the problem with FIP is it's much more successful as a predictor than it is a demonstrator. AND, it sometimes whiffs on pitchers who specialize in generating weak contact. Guys do outperform their FIP all the time, and by significant margins.
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I agree with that. Players like Glavine and Hudson are examples of this. And historically they have bettered their FIP by half a run. Some years there were over their FIP and some they were WAY under. Do we have a large enough sample to see what Julio will be? I don't know. But I know having an ERA a full run lower thna his FIP is not something we should expect to constantly happen because it never does.
 
yeezus said:
One is pitching still and the other currently isn't?
Besides, Wood had four good starts in a row (didn't top 6.1 IP in any of them) and then that bad start before landing on the DL.

I mean, according to FIP, Wood's 5 innings and 10 baserunners and 2 ER in those 5 innings was significantly better than Wisler's most recent with 6.2 IP with 10 baserunners. But I know which game I'd rather see my pitcher throw.
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I'd rather my pitcher strike out a lot of guys than rely on all the balls put in play to be caught all the time to be successful.
 
praeceps93 said:
Yeah, but what else are we gonna spend the money on? Next FA class sucks and we're supposed to have an expanded payroll, where else will that money actually be useful?
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Well there actually are some decent bats in this year's FA market. Bautista, Desmond, Turner, Prado, Ramos, Wieters, Gomez, and probably Cespedes.

I personally would like us to bring in Turner for 3b and Bautista or Cespedes for LF.
 
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