nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
OK. I can only look at it from my perspective.
Viz and Teheran listed as top trade candidates
- Thread starter msstate7
- Start date
OK. I can only look at it from my perspective.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Close!
Oh heck no, I'm not talking about him being a 30 WAR player over his control years. I'm thinking more along the lines of Starling Marte with a better walk rate. Bouncing from high 3s/low4s to mid 5 WAR depending on how much power and how good his defense is in a given year.
ETA Actually I guess Marte has averaged 5 WAR if you are using BR, so bleh. At any rate I think Benintendi has an extremely high chance of being a 4 WAR guy in years 2-6, with a solid shot at hitting 5+ plus 2-3 of those years.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
cool, is it like power ball and I still win a few million..
but serious guess where a player averaged 5 war per year for first 5 years of control.. I would say sub 15 out of 100..
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
In the last six years, eight positions players have averaged 5+ WAR and four pitchers have done so.
So 12 major leaguers. Out of those twelve, six were well beyond their years of contractual control.
I don't think I was far off in saying that for players ranked in the 10-20 range, the odds of their being a 5+ WAR player are roughly 5%.
Note also, some of those six players were rated in the top 10, which I don't believe Benitendi is.
And that's the thing...Julio IS a 3-4 WAR guy under control for 4.5 more years during his peak. There is very little "might be" involved. He has a conservative surplus value of $50M-$70M. To put a cherry on top of Teheran's contract, the final year is an option, so a team could turn it down and save $11M if something bad does happen to him.
I am usually a big fan of FG, but I also don't understand their disdain for Julio. I understand he isn't an ace, but $50M of surplus value is $50M of surplus value, no matter what you call the player.
Well given that most of the top tens for the past 10 years haven't played 5 years, you'd definitely be right. But even if we went 2000-2010 you'd probably still be right, as many of the players that did do that wouldn't hit the random 10-20 qualifier.
Agreed, their valuation of Julio is really dumb.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It happens obviously with a small number of prospects. But yeah, it is crazy to hang that kind of expected value on Benitendi.
Tapate50
Well-known member
I think Benintendi would be a nice get, but we aren't looking for nice. Benintendi could be nothing. He could be a fat bust...a 0. We are looking for knock your socks off deal for our ESTABLISHED star. So...
They could always kick in Betts, or Bradley to even it out!
Swihart doesn't move the needle for me. Not a bit.
They could always kick in Betts, or Bradley to even it out!
Swihart doesn't move the needle for me. Not a bit.
Currently 67 guys slugging .470 or higher this season, were right at close to 50 last year included the titanic Francisco Lindor at .482 (and 5-11 190). You don't have to jack 20+ HRs to hit a .470ish slugging %. And as I said, I wasn't saying he was going to average 5 WAR, Nascpi made an assumption and ran with it there. I do however thing he has a good chance at hitting 5 WAR in his 4th through 6th seasons.
Tapate50
Well-known member
I hate to nitpick, but 20 lbs is a big difference.
Eh, so bump the slugging % down to .450 if it makes you feel better. It's still not that ridiculous to hit 5 WAR with a .450ish slugging if you play solid defense (particularly in CF) and have good speed. See Starling Marte for example.
Benintendi is posting 15-20 HR power in the minors with great gap power, I fail to see how that doesn't translate to a 15 HR guy in the majors, and that's over .450 slugging.
Not to mention his scouting grades have him in the 50-55 range for power, with the potential for 60 or 65. He has pop.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
All of the things you mention might happen. But valuation has to be based upon an understanding of the range of outcomes. And a lot of really highly rated prospects don't pan out. That's why no team (not even the Red Sox) is going to value Benitendi as a 5+ expected win player.
Btw Teheran has a chance of improving to 5+ win player. But he could also suffer a serious injury. With both players you have to properly assess the range of outcomes and their probabilities.
Sorry if I'm being pedantic about this.
You keep talking about expected 5+ win player, and I'm talking about hitting 5 WAR once in 6 years, that is a huge difference. I'd agree with you that there is a 5% chance (or actually less probably) that Benintendi would average 5 WAR, but with a player of his offensive skill set and position there is a much greater than 5% chance he might hit 5 WAR at some point in his first 6 years of control. I look at it this way, given his performance in the minors so far I think there is probably a 50-60 % chance he becomes a very good player, maybe a 20-30 % chance of being slightly above replacement or decent, and maybe a 10-20 % chance of total bust. If his skill set translates he's going to be very good, and I think he'll hit 5 WAR at least one season out of 6.
And agreed on Julio.
This back and forth with you is amusing me highly given our discussion about Albies last summer though. Our roles were reversed, with me arguing it unreasonable to expect more than 3-3.5 WAR from Albies and you telling me he has a good chance to be a 4+ WAR guy.
Hah, that could get heated quickly I'd imagine, with it most likely turning into a "no way in heck we are giving up one of our top 3 for Julio!" quickly. Oh Tapate, a couple examples of a 5-11ish 175 guy I didn't think of would be Boston's Pedroia and Betts, both of whom are under 5-11 and had multiple .470+ slugging years in their first six, Altuve is over .470 as well but he's a weird case I don't really count.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
This would be Olivera bad, god awful trade.