BP Mid-Season Top 50

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
Top 10 are:

Crawford
Moncada
Urias
Bregman
Rogers
Meadows
Arcia
Reyes
Robles
Swanson

Other Braves in the top 50: Albies(21), Newcomb(41)

Others of note: Benintendi(11), Gallo(12), Devers(19), Brinson(22)
 
They did an article on guys who just missed the top 50. It's premium so I couldn't see all of it, but they did list Acuna in the section that was free.

Ronald Acuna, OF, Atlanta Braves
Why He'll Succeed: If the raw tools (speed, defense, and even some power) he flashes combine with the advanced approach—and not just for an 18-year-old in his full season debut—they'll create a Voltron-style prospect who people fall all over themselves just to see and/or talk about.

Why He Might Fail: The likely three-plus years of development time could reduce him down to merely a defense- and speed-based center fielder whose hit and power tools leave those who remembered his near-breakout in 2016 forever disappointed.
 
Kinda surprised to see Crawford and Devers so high after struggling badly at their respective levels. Nice to see Swanson in the top 10.
 
auyushu said:
Kinda surprised to see Crawford and Devers so high after struggling badly at their respective levels. Nice to see Swanson in the top 10.
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I think I'm the biggest Devers fan on this board. He started out really slow, but he has hit really well over the last month or two. He's also 19 years old for a few more months. We talk about pushing Braxton Davidson by putting him at High A, but Devers is nine months younger than him. Every prospect writer I've read is putting a plus hit tool and plus power on him, and they haven't backed off at all with his struggles.
 
auyushu said:
Kinda surprised to see Crawford and Devers so high after struggling badly at their respective levels. Nice to see Swanson in the top 10.
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It does seem to me they didn't give enough weight to 2017 performance in adjusting the rankings. Will be interesting to compare to BA's top 50, which should be out soon.
 
CJ9 said:
I think I'm the biggest Devers fan on this board. He started out really slow, but he has hit really well over the last month or two. He's also 19 years old for a few more months. We talk about pushing Braxton Davidson by putting him at High A, but Devers is nine months younger than him. Every prospect writer I've read is putting a plus hit tool and plus power on him, and they haven't backed off at all with his struggles.
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I'm probably competing with you for that status. I watched him a ton last year, and he and Albies were head and shoulders above Any other kids their age at that level. Early struggles at Salem don't mean much to me as far as his long-term prospects go.
 
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Since I'm feeling generous today I will share my top secret expected surplus value chart of prospect value by ranking:

1-3 10 wins
4-8 9 wins
9-14 8 wins
15-25 7 wins
26-50 6 wins

During his remaining years of contractual control, my estimate of Teheran's surplus value is 10 wins. I want to win any trade for Teheran. To be precise, I want a return worth 13 wins. Not a crazy overpay like Shelby Miller. But I am looking to win. By my value chart, Benintendi plus Devers is 15 wins. I would definitely go for that. But realistically, we would have to add a bit back to make that one happen.
 
nsacpi said:
Since I'm feeling generous today I will share my top secret expected surplus value chart of prospect value by ranking:

1-3 10 wins
4-8 9 wins
9-14 8 wins
15-25 7 wins
26-50 6 wins

During his remaining years of contractual control, my estimate of Teheran's surplus value is 10 wins. I want to win any trade for Teheran. To be precise, I want a return worth 13 wins. Not a crazy overpay like Shelby Miller. But I am looking to win. By my value chart, Benintendi plus Devers is 15 wins. I would definitely go for that. But realistically, we would have to add a bit back to make that one happen.
Click to expand...

I would do that deal, even if we kick in someone at AAA or the MLB pen thats a nice controllable piece. Even Viz if they throw us someone else.
 
Tapate50 said:
I would do that deal, even if we kick in someone at AAA or the MLB pen thats a nice controllable piece. Even Viz if they throw us someone else.
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I would put Viz's estimated surplus value at about 4 wins. Teheran and Viz for Benintendi plus Devers is close to a fair trade. I'd ask them to add decent prospect outside the Top 100 to make it a clear win.

An alternative to including Viz would be for us to add someone along the lines of Sims, Toussaint or Fried to Teheran.

The prospects I would keep off limits in this sort of trade would be: Albies, Swanson, Soroka, Allard, Acuna, and Maitan.
 
nsacpi said:
I would put Viz's estimated surplus value at about 4 wins. Teheran and Viz for Benintendi plus Devers is close to a fair trade. I'd ask them to add decent prospect outside the Top 100 to make it a clear win.

An alternative to including Viz would be for us to add someone along the lines of Sims, Toussaint or Fried to Teheran.

The prospects I would keep off limits in this sort of trade would be: Albies, Swanson, Soroka, Allard, Acuna, and Maitan.
Click to expand...

I'm close to making Fried off limits. That curve of his is unhittable.

[TW]746410445116837889[/TW]
 
nsacpi said:
I would put Viz's estimated surplus value at about 4 wins. Teheran and Viz for Benintendi plus Devers is close to a fair trade. I'd ask them to add decent prospect outside the Top 100 to make it a clear win.

An alternative to including Viz would be for us to add someone along the lines of Sims, Toussaint or Fried to Teheran.

The prospects I would keep off limits in this sort of trade would be: Albies, Swanson, Soroka, Allard, Acuna, and Maitan.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't think we would have to include a prospect of their caliber. I was thinking Janas, Whalen, Gant, etc...

Fried, Tookie, and Sims to a lesser extent are not moveable right now.
 
nsacpi said:
I would put Viz's estimated surplus value at about 4 wins. Teheran and Viz for Benintendi plus Devers is close to a fair trade. I'd ask them to add decent prospect outside the Top 100 to make it a clear win.
Click to expand...

This would be what I would like to see as well. Though I'd be fine without the C prospect if need be. Though someone like Chavis as the cherry on the sundae would be nice.
 
nsacpi said:
I would put Viz's estimated surplus value at about 4 wins. Teheran and Viz for Benintendi plus Devers is close to a fair trade. I'd ask them to add decent prospect outside the Top 100 to make it a clear win.

An alternative to including Viz would be for us to add someone along the lines of Sims, Toussaint or Fried to Teheran.

The prospects I would keep off limits in this sort of trade would be: Albies, Swanson, Soroka, Allard, Acuna, and Maitan.
Click to expand...

Toss in Henry Owens and I'll deal.
 
Tapate50 said:
I wouldn't think we would have to include a prospect of their caliber. I was thinking Janas, Whalen, Gant, etc...

Fried, Tookie, and Sims to a lesser extent are not moveable right now.
Click to expand...

Given what Whalen has done this season, I would think twice (or maybe even three times) about moving him.
 
auyushu said:
Kinda surprised to see Crawford and Devers so high after struggling badly at their respective levels. Nice to see Swanson in the top 10.
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I don't really understand the Crawford hype unless he's a Simmons-level defender. Even then, I'm not sure I buy it.
 
CJ9 said:
I think I'm the biggest Devers fan on this board. He started out really slow, but he has hit really well over the last month or two. He's also 19 years old for a few more months. We talk about pushing Braxton Davidson by putting him at High A, but Devers is nine months younger than him. Every prospect writer I've read is putting a plus hit tool and plus power on him, and they haven't backed off at all with his struggles.
Click to expand...

4 months younger than Davidson, and his performance at the same level isn't that much better.
 
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