Some perspective on what Ozzy is doing

People get disappointed because they expect every prospect to end up in the top 10% or higher of his peer group in terms of development. Would you be disappointed if Oz ended up being a Furcal? a Betemit?

Wouldn't be disappointed with Furcal. Would be with Betemit
 
Wouldn't be disappointed with Furcal. Would be with Betemit

What's funny is that Betemit actually has a better career OPS than Furcal albeit in like only a 3rd of the games Furcal played in. But for each players overall career arc I would agree.
 
Altuve wasn't altuve early either.

I think that you have to consider that when we get into the fight about when to start Ozzie's clock. Altuve didn't come up until 21 IIRC and wasn't above a 750 OPS for 2 seasons I think. Yes, some of that is age but I think a lot is that you have to let young guys work through their early struggles.
 
What's funny is that Betemit actually has a better career OPS than Furcal albeit in like only a 3rd of the games Furcal played in. But for each players overall career arc I would agree.

Yeah I'm talking Furcal in his prime. He had quite a few subpar years and injuries in the end. Betemit was successful because if I remember he was a very successful part time starter/platoon player. Plus he had more power... I think Albies will hit for better average and have a bit more power than Furcal... Not sure about stolen bases. Probably not as much
 
People get disappointed because they expect every prospect to end up in the top 10% or higher of his peer group in terms of development. Would you be disappointed if Oz ended up being a Furcal? a Betemit?

Expecting and hoping are two different things. There is nothing wrong with being disappointed when a player doesn't reach his projected ceiling. It doesn't mean I hate the player. It doesn't mean I'm not a fan anymore. It doesn't mean I think the player is useless.

Furcal was a .750 OPS middle infielder with a few .800 OPS years sprinkled in. So yes, I would be disappointed if Albies became Furcal minus the arm.
 
Yeah I'm talking Furcal in his prime. He had quite a few subpar years and injuries in the end. Betemit was successful because if I remember he was a very successful part time starter/platoon player. Plus he had more power... I think Albies will hit for better average and have a bit more power than Furcal... Not sure about stolen bases. Probably not as much

Furcal was a 10-15 HR guy in his prime. He was much more solidly built than Albies appears to be. Much more muscular even though he is short.

I bet you $1 Albies never hits 15 HR (over the fence!) in a season.
 
Just wanted to add some perspective on what Ozzy is doing at AA; its ridiculous and it doesn't seem like prospect guru's are really talking about it that much, considering the performance and his age.

Albies is currently hitting .370/.440/.505 in 184 ABs.

Going back to 2005 - here are the best seasons that batters have put together in the Southern League in BA/OBP/SLG and their age when they did it.

Batting Average / 2005-2016

1. Ozzie Albies .370 (2016/19 years old)

2. Dave Sappelt .361 (2010/23 years old)

3. Angel Salome .360 (2008/22 years old)

3. Scott Van Slyke .348 (2011/25 years old)

4. Brandon Guyer .344 (2010/24 years old)

5. Tyler Kuhn .341 (2011/24 years old)

5. Moises Sierra .341 (2016/27 years old)

Ozzie's OBP of .440 would rank;

2016 #1 - next closest .419

2015 #1 - next closest .416

2014 #1 - next closest .405

2013 #1 - next closest .420

2012 #1 - next closest .416

2011 #1 - next closest .435

2010 #1 - next closest .411

2009 #2 - Ezequiel Carrera .441 OBP / 22 years old

2008 #1 - next closest .419

2007 #1 - next closest .433

2006 #1 - next closest .408

2005 #2 - Jermey Hermida .457 OBP / 21 years old

Ozzie's SLG% of .505 would rank

2016 #4 - highest .547

2015 #2 - highest .531

2014 #3 - highest .556

2013 #1 - next closest .497

2012 #4 - highest .563

2011 #8 - highest .626

2010 #3 - highest .588

2009 #3 - highest .521

2008 #9 - highest .580

2007 #4 - highest .565

2006 #3 - highest .547

2005 #7 - highest .582

Obviously Albies spent some time in AAA, so his sample size is a little bit smaller here, but we are still approaching 200 ABs and even if there's some regression, what he's done on this level AT HIS AGE; is unprecedented as a hitter. Also keep in mind that many of the other leaders on these lists are not only much older, but also play more offensive positions like OF/1B.

He's a stud.

I was curios so went back. I think you just used qualified hitters, which is fine.

But, I did notice a couple:

Heyward .352/.446/.611 in 195 PA

Freeman .248/.308/.342 in 169 PA

J.Upton .309/.399/.556 in 306 PA

D. Young .336/.386/.582 in 370 PA
 
I was curios so went back. I think you just used qualified hitters, which is fine.

But, I did notice a couple:

Heyward .352/.446/.611 in 195 PA

Gosh... I really wonder what happened to Heyward's power... He was a beast in rookie year, but after that thumb injury has been straight downhill. I wonder if it's all isolated to that
 
Altuve wasn't altuve early either.

I think that you have to consider that when we get into the fight about when to start Ozzie's clock. Altuve didn't come up until 21 IIRC and wasn't above a 750 OPS for 2 seasons I think. Yes, some of that is age but I think a lot is that you have to let young guys work through their early struggles.

Over the years there have been many Altuve like prospects. But only a very small number turn into an Altuve like player. That's what we have to keep in mind about all prospects.
 
I just keep going back to the fact that he's 19 -- and is on pace to post the highest BA in the Southern League in 11+ years.

Yes there's BABIP luck and yes there will be regression; but my gawd - he's 19 and compiling one of the more statistically impressive offensive season in recent memory as a middle-infielder with + defense. Just a total stud.

Also, goes to show how much of a crapshoot the international market is; this is a guy that barely made waves when he signed for $300K, and now he's one of the best prospects in baseball.
 
Over the years there have been many Altuve like prospects. But only a very small number turn into an Altuve like player. That's what we have to keep in mind about all prospects.

I am aware.

My point was that Altuve OPS his first three years was 654, 740, 678. He'd be a bust on this board before he got to year 4.
 
I am aware.

My point was that Altuve OPS his first three years was 654, 740, 678. He'd be a bust on this board before he got to year 4.

Well. I don't think he was ever an elite prospect. Which makes his blossoming into the player he has become this year even more remarkable.
 
Furcal was a 10-15 HR guy in his prime. He was much more solidly built than Albies appears to be. Much more muscular even though he is short.

I bet you $1 Albies never hits 15 HR (over the fence!) in a season.

So Albies is 3 inches taller and about the same weight... He can't fill out anymore with more muscle as he grows? Dudes 19 man.
 
So Albies is 3 inches taller and about the same weight... He can't fill out anymore with more muscle as he grows? Dudes 19 man.

Furcal is listed at 5'8 and 195. I don't care what Albies is "generously" listed at (5'9), he is not bigger than Furcal (where you got 3" taller baffles me).

Did you ever see Furcal when he first came up? He was chiseled.

Anyways, I still contend Albies will never hit 15 balls over the fence in a season if he's playing in Atlanta.
 
Furcal is listed at 5'8 and 195. I don't care what Albies is "generously" listed at (5'9), he is not bigger than Furcal (where you got 3" taller baffles me).

Did you ever see Furcal when he first came up? He was chiseled.

Anyways, I still contend Albies will never hit 15 balls over the fence in a season if he's playing in Atlanta.

Maybe because I wasn't talking about Furcal... You told me he didn't have any chance to have power like Altuve who I was actually talking about. I don't know if he ever hits 15 or not, but it's too early for you to really know that.
 
Albies is probably the same height as Altuve. You don't really think Albies is 5-9, do you?
 
Albies is probably the same height as Altuve. You don't really think Albies is 5-9, do you?

Just going by their specs on all the stat sites man... You will argue about the smallest sh*t, I swear. I guess the organization lies about his height. He probably does too.
 
Back
Top