7/28 THURSDAY MINORS FINAL: Riley, Davidson hit 10th HRs

[smootness]

The problem there is that it's fairly common for players to develop more power as they move up levels, it's extremely rare to go from having crappy contact rates to having good ones.

I would say it's more common for guys with big power to improve their K rates enough for their power to play than it is for guys with no power to develop good power.

Obviously Davidson hasn't shown great power, which is why his K rate is a bigger deal for him at this point, but I'd still rather him have power with a low batting average than no power with a mediocre average.

I mean, I'd rather Davidson be posting Peterson numbers as well...but that's pretty obvious. Davidson only has 2 more HR than Peterson, so you're adding a bunch of doubles and hits in general and only losing the 2 HR.

 

[Braves1976]

Anybody know if he worked on a new pitch or improved something significantly once he got traded to us? Because his K rates jumped like crazy since he got traded to us. Just curious what might have caused the change. He's been a very pleasant surprise along with Gant.

He had his bad knee fixed, then took him a bit to build things back up but now that he has he feels his best after dealing with knee issues previously. He said himself the biggest thing is he is healthier now.

 

[Jay2033]

He had his bad knee fixed, then took him a bit to build things back up but now that he has he feels his best after dealing with knee issues previously. He said himself the biggest thing is he is healthier now.

Bad knees both of his knees were bad according to the BA article.

 

[auyushu]

I have heard this, but is there some evidence to support it or just a perception? Honest question!

Well, depending on how big the K rates we are talking about are yes. Guys who K over 30% of the time in the minors almost never make it, and it's rare to see guys go from huge K rates to being really good K rates. Now in between there of course you have a wide variety, not uncommon to see guys in the 20-25% k% range drop their K rates a bit once they hit or move towards the majors (and of course go the other way). You'll see some prospects lower their K rates a bunch moving up levels once and a while, but it's rare. Corey Seager for example dropped his 8% or so from low A to the majors, but he had fantastic contact rates his entire way through the minors. Having crazy high K rates and poor BB/K rates generally leads to prospects translating poorly to the majors, prospects that have that rarely make it.

Davidson at least has a good walk rate, so he has the patience angle, but he needs to show some contact skills by next year or I think he has very little shot of making it.

 

[50PoundHead]

Dustin Peterson with 2 more doubles. OPS now over .800.

 

[Deester11]

Dustin Peterson with 2 more doubles. OPS now over .800.

Are we not entertained???!!!! Really liking him.

 

[Braves1976]

Bad knees both of his knees were bad according to the BA article.

Correct. I read that too, I just poorly edited my post.

 

[rawwr]

Well, depending on how big the K rates we are talking about are yes. Guys who K over 30% of the time in the minors almost never make it, and it's rare to see guys go from huge K rates to being really good K rates. Now in between there of course you have a wide variety, not uncommon to see guys in the 20-25% k% range drop their K rates a bit once they hit or move towards the majors (and of course go the other way). You'll see some prospects lower their K rates a bunch moving up levels once and a while, but it's rare. Corey Seager for example dropped his 8% or so from low A to the majors, but he had fantastic contact rates his entire way through the minors. Having crazy high K rates and poor BB/K rates generally leads to prospects translating poorly to the majors, prospects that have that rarely make it.

Davidson at least has a good walk rate, so he has the patience angle, but he needs to show some contact skills by next year or I think he has very little shot of making it.

I think the lack of contact skills in combination with the high strikeout rate is the problem. A high strikeout rate alone could just be an indication of a raw, aggressive approach at the plate and that isn't necessarily hard to refine. The high walk rate also would seem to suggest he has decent strike zone judgment, but the guy is batting .232 even with a BABIP of .350. To me that sounds like he either has a lot of trouble making contact or his swing has a major flaw that's being exploited. Either way those are difficult problems to fix and if they're already hurting his average this much at A+, he's very unlikely to make it past AA, much less be a productive major leaguer.

This is the point where it's hard to tell what's going on from the stats alone and you need to scout the player to get a better idea.