Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
"I think Jace is a better leadoff option than Inciarte.
I would go with something like this
Jace
Freddie
Kemp
Markakis
Adonis
Inciarte
Recker
Aybar
Pitcher"
Reasonable ideas, both.
You are 100% correct according to the lineup optimization analysis referred to by "the book". Freddie should be in the 2 hole, but I always hesitate to put him there in mock lineups because I know the Braves will never do so.
Jace and his superior OBP should be batting leadoff vs RHers, and it has nothing to do with SBs. SBs are more valuable in front of singles hitters, while just being on base is more valuable in front of power hitters like Freeman and Kemp.
The 3rd spot in the lineup comes up with no runners on and 2 outs very frequently in the 1st inning which makes it an overall less important lineup position than the 1, 2, and 4 holes, so you are correct to put Kemp there.
You then placed hitters in reverse order of skill, breaking up LHers and RHers where you could. If only the Braves had better RHers and LHers to split up!
The most interesting thing I notice about lineup contruction is that the 1 batter leads off an inning ~40% of his PAs (he is guaranteed 1 every game), but the next most likely position of any other inning for him to hit is 4th (24.6% of his PAs). Knowing that, I wonder at what point it makes sense to put better hitters towards the bottom of the order (for example, flip Inciarte and Aybar) so when the leadoff hitter comes up 4th in an inning he has a better chance of hitting with men on base?
And at what point do you consider your leadoff hitter as you "2nd cleanup hitter" (he hits 4th in an inning more than any other position except the actual 4th place hitter) and put power in that spot accordingly?
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...ers-actually-bat-their-batting-order-position
