Where are we on the expected win curve?

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
Where are we on the expected win curve for 2017?

We start with 48 wins (what a team of replacement players gets you) and add as follows:

Catcher McCann (2.0)

1B Freeman (4.5)

2B Albies (1.5)

SS Swanson (1.5)

3B Freese (2)

LF Kemp (1)

CF Inciarte (2.5)

RF Markakis (1.5)

Total from lineup: (15.5) Running total: 63.5 (48+15.5)

Teheran (3.5)

Folty (1.5)

Wisler (1.5)

Gant (1)

Fifth start (0.5)

Total from rotation (8) Running total 71.5

Bench (2) plus Pen (4): 6

Grand total 77.5

As I currently see it we are a 75-80 win team in 2017.
 
I actually agree with that. If we can add a couple of legit pieces, then it could be better - but that seems about right. We will probably be decent enough to compete, but it won't be anything spectacular next year... but 2018 could be fun.
 
We will be like the girl who isn't the prettiest and most fun to dance with about a year before she becomes the prettiest and most fun. Maybe two years. Maybe three. But who cares. The whole scenario will get the fans excited.
 
nsacpi said:
Where are we on the expected win curve for 2017?

We start with 48 wins (what a team of replacement players gets you) and add as follows:

Catcher McCann (2.0)

1B Freeman (4.5)

2B Albies (1.5)

SS Swanson (1.5)

3B Freese (2)

LF Kemp (1)

CF Inciarte (2.5)

RF Markakis (1.5)

Total from lineup: (15.5) Running total: 63.5 (48+15.5)

Teheran (3.5)

Folty (1.5)

Wisler (1.5)

Gant (1)

Fifth start (0.5)

Total from rotation (8) Running total 71.5

Bench (2) plus Pen (4): 6

Grand total 77.5

As I currently see it we are a 75-80 win team in 2017.
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I would agree with that. And by looking at it that way you can see why the FO initially thought 2017 was the time frame to start competing if the rotation came around better than it has. If Folty/Wisler did what they had initially envisioned we'd be farther along in the win curve. Still could happen as pitchers can seemingly 'get it' overnight.
 
thewupk said:
If Folty/Wisler did what they had initially envisioned we'd be farther along in the win curve. Still could happen as pitchers can seemingly 'get it' overnight.
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Yup. The young unproven starting pitching is probably our best hope for significantly out-performing current projections. Not just Folty and Wisler, but also others who might start the season in the minors. I hope the front office is patient with them. I want to see them given every opportunity possible, rather than bringing in guys like Bud Norris.
 
nsacpi said:
Grand total 77.5

As I currently see it we are a 75-80 win team in 2017
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I think this is close to where we will be, but your grand total is few WAR off due to you being overly optimistic about a number of our players.

You are plugging in improvements from players that have shown no signs of it or haven't hit those numbers this year at all. Assuming 2.5 WAR from Nick and Kemp when they've produced slightly less than 1 WAR so far this year is a stretch, particularly as they are more likely to get worse due to aging rather than better. Mac is on track for less than 2 WAR this season as well.

At this moment in time I don't think any of our starting pitchers (outside Julio) are reasonable bets for 1.5 WAR. The only one I would even think is a definitely a good bet for 1 WAR is Folty.

I think we are better bets for low to mid 70s wins due to our starting pitching in your expected lineup. We'd need big jumps from someone like Folty or Newcomb to hit 80ish wins I think. It's certainly possible for us to hit .500ish if a couple pitchers turn a switch, but we'd have to get lucky to have that happen with their performances so far.
 
We could jump start if the young starters take a step forward. I also think a pen based around viz Simmons winkler paco and minter could be very good.

I think kemp could be a 1 war player. Moving to lf helps. I think he will walk more.

I could see inciarte albies and Swanson out performing those numbers just based on defense.

I worry that we are going to go all in and get 2-3 4 plus year contract free agents. But maybe it works out

I'm thinking 75 wins. But I could see better if we spend well and a young stud potential player hits the ground running
 
auyushu said:
Before the Kemp trade that was a bit of a concern of mine, but I think the Kemp trade signals the FO is unlikely to go that route.
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Trading for guys like Kemp and McCann has the advantage of limiting the years of exposure. Better having those two on a three year deal than a 30something FA on a 5 or 6 year deal.
 
nsacpi said:
Trading for guys like Kemp and McCann has the advantage of limiting the years of exposure. Better having those two on a three year deal than a 30something FA on a 5 or 6 year deal.
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Yep, exactly. If we are giving a FA big money 4-6 year deal I think it needs to be that one missing piece that pushes us from a playoff type team to a legit WS contender. Otherwise we should concentrate on spending our money on extending young guys to reasonable first deals or signing short term deal FA contracts.
 
nsacpi said:
We will be like the girl who isn't the prettiest and most fun to dance with about a year before she becomes the prettiest and most fun. Maybe two years. Maybe three. But who cares. The whole scenario will get the fans excited.
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Pretty girls don't necessarily make the best dance partners. They are too concerned with looking pretty. Your best bet is finding one who knows how to dance and the pretty will grow on you.
 
That is probably the most optimistic chance.

Mccann, Markakis, Wisler are all under 1 this year i believe. A couple injuries and a couple guys overperform, im sure.

Bullpen of 4 is one of the best in MLB. Bench of 2 is probably one of the best benches.
 
9 bullpens generated WAR of over 4 in 2015. 5 of those generated WAR of 5 or more. And 1 was over 6.
 
Oklahomabrave said:
I don't think our current offense or SP is great, but our RP could be pretty great. Viz, Cabrera, Minter, Paco, Simmons. Health and inexperience will factor in, but we have 4 guys with back of the pen potential.
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Also Krol has been solid and Winkler before he got hurt was outstanding. And I think we'll sign a veteran guy to provide some leadership and help out with the high leverage innings. I don't think its a stretch to project an above-average pen in 2017.
 
I think you are a little high on the OF total and C, and a little low on Swanson, Albies and Folty. Overall it seems about right though.
 
Enscheff said:
and a little low on Swanson, Albies and Folty. Overall it seems about right though.
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I think nsacpi is on target for those two if they get called up June or later, and I think he is assuming we are using stopgap 2B and SS for a bit in those predictions. They probably put up much better numbers if they start the year in the majors or come up in April of course. I'm hoping they spend a month or two in AAA at least.
 
auyushu said:
I think nsacpi is on target for those two if they get called up June or later, and I think he is assuming we are using stopgap 2B and SS for a bit in those predictions. They probably put up much better numbers if they start the year in the majors or come up in April of course. I'm hoping they spend a month or two in AAA at least.
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Yeah. The assumption I'm making is they get called up in June, with guys like Peterson, D'Arnaud and Castro filling in until then. The 1.5 is how many wins I'm expecting from whoever is starting at short and second over the course of the whole season.
 
Fair enough, for what it's worth though, I expect Folty to be a 3+ WAR guy next year and take over as the defacto "ace" starting in 2018.
 
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