Peraza

chop2chip said:
That doesn't disprove my point, since it's Tango's work... But the first part about not having the resources to extract data like the clubs is the important part.
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I would agree with that. If they had the resources maybe we would have better data. However I tend to think most of the data that teams use is based on creating an on field advantage. Shifts, where to pitch, who to use, etc. I don't feel the actual performance is going to differ all that much to really matter. I think most models will show Ender as a plus defender in center. Neck being an average hitter this year, Freeman being really good, etc. Where things will differ is exactly how good that player is and how they value it. What is there value on left field defense compared to short or center, etc.
 
yeezus said:
I agree. I just found the use of the word "moronic" humorous. As if zito isn't a moron because he was able to go to fangraphs and look at WAR, which the moronic FO isn't capable of doing. I'm sure they understand where fangraph's WAR puts Kemp's salary at. Disagree with valuation? Sure. Calling them moronic and proving it by going to a website anyone can go to for free? Na.
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I agree to a point. But should have we all not laughed at the Phillies for their Howard contract? They could have had a model that suggested he was worth that money (he hits lots of homers and rbi). That was a moronic deal and fangraphs told me that too.
 
gilesfan said:
Im just asking because I do not know. I just assumed it was small.
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Teams would never make the information publicly available, but I promise you that it's a lot and growing. From Lindbergh:

In fact, the recent expansion of analytics staffing doesn’t seem to have squeezed out other kinds of employees. By our count, big-league teams employed 1,246 full-time scouts in the first year of our sample, across all levels and specialties — pro, amateur, advance and international. This year’s media guides list 1,539 scouts — an average increase of almost 10 per team. Only five teams employ fewer scouts than they did in 2009, and of those, four were previously among the top five scout employers. No team has downsized by more than six total scouts or 12 percent of its previous force.
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That's not even factoring all of the money that goes into building out the database, like say Ground Control for the Astros, hiring full time analytics staff, paying for database access from MLB for things like PitchFX, statcast, etc.

Teams wouldn't be investing that much money into this if they could just rely upon Fangraphs as a resource.
 
thewupk said:
I agree to a point. But should have we all not laughed at the Phillies for their Howard contract? They could have had a model that suggested he was worth that money (he hits lots of homers and rbi). That was a moronic deal and fangraphs told me that too.
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Isn't it common knowledge that the Amaro led Phillies didn't have an analytics department? Surely they didn't rely on any model at all.
 
thewupk said:
I agree to a point. But should have we all not laughed at the Phillies for their Howard contract? They could have had a model that suggested he was worth that money (he hits lots of homers and rbi). That was a moronic deal and fangraphs told me that too.
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I don't think most needed fangraphs for that. He was clearly on the decline, or his prime wasn't going to last much longer. He's a guy I personally feel is undervalued by WAR in his career tho. The potential to turn a game upside down with one swing the way he could far outweighed his poor defense at a position like first base. But I think that contract was a combination of desperation, pressure, and wishful thinking.
 
Im sure you are right for the most part. I will make note though on the number of scouts because I have interacted with many. A lot of them are just low paid part time guys. One I know in particular was just a local high school coach. Another one (Braves scout) was just an old guy that went to about 50% of our high school games. I don't even remember his name.
 
gilesfan said:
Im sure you are right for the most part. I will make note though on the number of scouts because I have interacted with many. A lot of them are just low paid part time guys. One I know in particular was just a local high school coach. Another one (Braves scout) was just an old guy that went to about 50% of our high school games. I don't even remember his name.
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Most of the bottom-tier scouts are part-time guys. Sometimes they are coaches who simply submit reports on players in their league/area. I think the guys who go to the showcases and do the cross-checking are all paid.
 
gilesfan said:
Im sure you are right for the most part. I will make note though on the number of scouts because I have interacted with many. A lot of them are just low paid part time guys. One I know in particular was just a local high school coach. Another one (Braves scout) was just an old guy that went to about 50% of our high school games. I don't even remember his name.
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Lindbergh's study excluded part time scouts, which means the costs are even higher when they are factored in. This is the full time employees, which means employee benefits as well on top of salary (which I've read is around 30-40K for inexperienced and 80K for experienced).
 
chop2chip said:
Lindbergh's study excluded part time scouts, which means the costs are even higher when they are factored in. This is the full time employees, which means employee benefits as well on top of salary (which I've read is around 30-40K for inexperienced and 80K for experienced).
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Ah, gotcha. I didn't realize the top guys didn't make dick.
 
chop2chip said:
Isn't it common knowledge that the Amaro led Phillies didn't have an analytics department? Surely they didn't rely on any model at all.
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And I'm sure there are other teams that still don't rely on it that much. And other teams rely on it at varying degrees. The DBacks are a team that I don't rely on analytics much if any at all. There are some cases where we can look at a move and call it dumb. They happen..all the time. And for whatever reason the team making the move wouldn't think it was dumb at the time of the deal. Still doesn't make it not dumb. I don't see an issue with calling a FO out on it if it's your opinion.
 
yeezus said:
I don't think most needed fangraphs for that. He was clearly on the decline, or his prime wasn't going to last much longer. He's a guy I personally feel is undervalued by WAR in his career tho. The potential to turn a game upside down with one swing the way he could far outweighed his poor defense at a position like first base. But I think that contract was a combination of desperation, pressure, and wishful thinking.
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I wouldn't say he was on a decline when that extension was signed. He was coming off a 45 homer 4.5 WAR season when he signed it. The main problem was that he was already signed for 2 more years and then proceeded to decline hard the same year he signed the deal. And I wouldn't say WAR undervalued him. He had 16.4 fWAR in his 4 year prime with a single year high of 5.9.
 
thewupk said:
I don't see an issue with calling a FO out on it if it's your opinion.
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I agree with your overall point up until this. You can't assume to understand the data that you don't have.

Now I fully support calling the FO out when they make errors in the decision making process. It made sense to question the logic behind the Markakis and HO moves.
 
thewupk said:
I wouldn't say he was on a decline when that extension was signed. He was coming off a 45 homer 4.5 WAR season when he signed it. The main problem was that he was already signed for 2 more years and then proceeded to decline hard the same year he signed the deal. And I wouldn't say WAR undervalued him. He had 16.4 fWAR in his 4 year prime with a single year high of 5.9.
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Does the WAR movement get sole credit for being right with Howard? I think that extension was universally panned.
 
Enscheff said:
I can't speak to the scouting departments, but when I looked into it they didn't pay their analytic people well at all. I would have had to take a 60%-70% pay cut and worked insane hours. Baseball nerd jobs are only for young guys with no family haha!
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You sound amazing.
 
chop2chip said:
I agree with your overall point up until this. You can't assume to understand the data that you don't have.

Now I fully support calling the FO out when they make errors in the decision making process. It made sense to question the logic behind the Markakis and HO moves.
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While true you can disagree with player valuations based on it even if you don't have access to it. I don't see an issue with someone not thinking Kemp has been worth 8 million a year or that he will be in the future. I would tend to agree with that but at the same time I don't really care because I doubt the Braves compete in the next couple of years and money doesn't carry over so it's a non issue to me.
 
chop2chip said:
Does the WAR movement get sole credit for being right with Howard? I think that extension was universally panned.
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Sure.....Howard came up late so he was already old when hitting the FA years. He's a classic case of paying for what you did and not what you will do. These are mistakes made by all types of FO's.
 
yeezus said:
I don't think most needed fangraphs for that. He was clearly on the decline, or his prime wasn't going to last much longer. He's a guy I personally feel is undervalued by WAR in his career tho. The potential to turn a game upside down with one swing the way he could far outweighed his poor defense at a position like first base. But I think that contract was a combination of desperation, pressure, and wishful thinking.
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It's called he doesn't hit breaking balls well. When pitchers realized they could throw him slop and he'd chase it, he was cooked. Add to that his injuries that sapped his power, he was lost. In a way he had a longer more interesting fall than our own Failcoeur. Who was on fire at first (like Howard) then people realized his flaws and he became an effective but flawed hitter, a coach changed his approach from an all or nothing hitter to try to put it the other way and found some moderate success, then that went and it was over.
 
zitothebrave said:
It's called he doesn't hit breaking balls well. When pitchers realized they could throw him slop and he'd chase it, he was cooked. Add to that his injuries that sapped his power, he was lost. In a way he had a longer more interesting fall than our own Failcoeur. Who was on fire at first (like Howard) then people realized his flaws and he became an effective but flawed hitter, a coach changed his approach from an all or nothing hitter to try to put it the other way and found some moderate success, then that went and it was over.
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I don't think so. I think Ryan Howard was just like Dan Marino.

He was never the same after he blew out his Achilles.
 
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