John Schuerholz on Braves Banter Podcast

[Horsehide Harry]

Here's the thing. Freeman has broken out this year and has turned into an elite first baseman instead of a very good first baseman. This is a team that desperately needs an elite player and now we have it for a very cheap price for several more years. You're trading a big power guy for a prospect who may or may not have power in the end (Bregman was never supposed to be a big power guy... more of a contact guy with some pop)... and with the rest of your package, you are replacing FF at first with a guy who has failed miserably at the MLB level and has shown no promising signs of getting it, and another prospect who may or may not pan out. You're trading a sure thing, elite player at a cornerstone position as a cheap price for a bunch of question marks when we're really not that far off from competing with better pitching and a FA/trade or two. If you trade Freeman and Kemp for those 3 players, you are setting the rebuild back about 3-4 more years.

I think where we differ most is the idea that the team isn't that far away from competing. I agree completely that Freeman has turned himself into an elite level player (or at least exhibited a season where he is an elite level player, hopefully to sustain that level). But, he is likely at his peak now. As is Teheran and Inciarte. And the team is still going to lose close to 100 games (19 or so games just to get to .500, which is still not really competing). So, IMO, you can't count on any real improvement in terms of wins coming from those three players, they already are doing all they can. The other veterans on the team are just as likely to go backwards as forwards in terms of quality of play (Markakis, Flowers, Kemp). That means that the improvement needed will have to come from internal sources or external sources (FA, Trades). Internally, if they young guys progress well as we hope, there will be some level of improvement, but I think not a huge amount yet. The FA market isn't likely to provide much help because there isn't much to be had. And the Braves aren't likely to trade for guys who will be big help because of cost in return prospects.

Could the Braves challenge for a WC spot next year? Anything is possible. Is it likely? IMO, it is very unlikely and the small chance is not worth changing the long term foundation building that continuing the rebuild should bring.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

didn't see the tropic thunder reference.. but really wasn't pointing you out. Just saying, even when HH post retardedly, we should be nice to him because we are not sure if he really is..

That's right. I could be the mailman, bugman, waiter, driver or ice cream truck guy.

The first rule about Fight Club is that you do not talk about fight club. BTW, don't order the soup.

 

[yeezus]

I think where we differ most is the idea that the team isn't that far away from competing. I agree completely that Freeman has turned himself into an elite level player (or at least exhibited a season where he is an elite level player, hopefully to sustain that level). But, he is likely at his peak now. As is Teheran and Inciarte. And the team is still going to lose close to 100 games (19 or so games just to get to .500, which is still not really competing). So, IMO, you can't count on any real improvement in terms of wins coming from those three players, they already are doing all they can. The other veterans on the team are just as likely to go backwards as forwards in terms of quality of play (Markakis, Flowers, Kemp). That means that the improvement needed will have to come from internal sources or external sources (FA, Trades). Internally, if they young guys progress well as we hope, there will be some level of improvement, but I think not a huge amount yet. The FA market isn't likely to provide much help because there isn't much to be had. And the Braves aren't likely to trade for guys who will be big help because of cost in return prospects.

Could the Braves challenge for a WC spot next year? Anything is possible. Is it likely? IMO, it is very unlikely and the small chance is not worth changing the long term foundation building that continuing the rebuild should bring.

I certainly don't think Inciarte has definitely reached his peak. If Teheran and Freeman can maintain theirs (or around it) for 4-5 years, we'll be in good shape.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

I think us Braves fans are enamored with prospects right now because that is the future of our org... it is easy to get caught up in potential over production.. Where the hell is Niner when you really need him?!:?

I am enamored with having the most and best talent available at a time when the team really has a chance to be successful. Having Freddie now is like having Dale Murphy in 1987. Yeah, he was awesome, the Trout of 1987. But the team still lost 92 games and finished 11th of 12 in attendance in the NL. Having him really made no difference because the rest of the team wasn't good enough and wouldn't be until 1991, even with Ted's checkbook willing to be opened at any time.

You could argue that Murphy was 31 and Freeman is 26, and that certainly is valid. I would counter that there is no guarantee that Freeman will remain as good as he is today even through next season, since he has never really shown this level of play before. Could Freeman hit .997 with 44 HR when he is 31? It's certainly possible. But, if you could turn him into Bregman, Tucker and Reed in trade then use the $20+M per year that you free up to add 1-2 more significant pieces what would be more valuable in 2018,19,20?

 

[yeezus]

I am enamored with having the most and best talent available at a time when the team really has a chance to be successful. Having Freddie now is like having Dale Murphy in 1987. Yeah, he was awesome, the Trout of 1987. But the team still lost 92 games and finished 11th of 12 in attendance in the NL. Having him really made no difference because the rest of the team wasn't good enough and wouldn't be until 1991, even with Ted's checkbook willing to be opened at any time.

You could argue that Murphy was 31 and Freeman is 26, and that certainly is valid. I would counter that there is no guarantee that Freeman will remain as good as he is today even through next season, since he has never really shown this level of play before. Could Freeman hit .997 with 44 HR when he is 31? It's certainly possible. But, if you could turn him into Bregman, Tucker and Reed in trade then use the $20+M per year that you free up to add 1-2 more significant pieces what would be more valuable in 2018,19,20?

There's also no guarantee Bregman, Reed, or Tucker approach what Freddie has been consistently. Lots of young players flame out, or even don't live up to expectations. Bregman is the only one who doesn't have a lot to prove. So if those guys take a long time to develop, or a long time to become consistent contributors, or flame out, or become merely OK players, you just traded a 27-year old in his prime, who should remain in his prime for a few more years at least, for that. At some point, you need to hold onto some veterans that are consistent and have experience.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

I certainly don't think Inciarte has definitely reached his peak. If Teheran and Freeman can maintain theirs (or around it) for 4-5 years, we'll be in good shape.

IF. I would say it's certainly possible, maybe even likely, Freeman will maintain. I say it's unlikely Teheran will be as the odds are very much against him.

As for Inciarte, the only area where I think he could improve is likely power production and he really isn't built for that. His OBP right now is .348. He could steal more bases (14 so far, 21 last year) but I don't ever see him being a 50sb guy. His defense is as good as it's likely to get. There just isn't a lot of room left for him to be better than he is now, unless he becomes a more powerful player and slugs more which is unlikely IMO.

 

[thewupk]

I am enamored with having the most and best talent available at a time when the team really has a chance to be successful. Having Freddie now is like having Dale Murphy in 1987. Yeah, he was awesome, the Trout of 1987. But the team still lost 92 games and finished 11th of 12 in attendance in the NL. Having him really made no difference because the rest of the team wasn't good enough and wouldn't be until 1991, even with Ted's checkbook willing to be opened at any time.

You could argue that Murphy was 31 and Freeman is 26, and that certainly is valid. I would counter that there is no guarantee that Freeman will remain as good as he is today even through next season, since he has never really shown this level of play before. Could Freeman hit .997 with 44 HR when he is 31? It's certainly possible. But, if you could turn him into Bregman, Tucker and Reed in trade then use the $20+M per year that you free up to add 1-2 more significant pieces what would be more valuable in 2018,19,20?

While not to this level exactly he has still shown a strong level of production the last 4 years and is entering his prime. So having a career year at age 26 is not a surprise. It's a quite normal progression path for a hitter. He should still be very productive through age 30 and hopefully longer.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

There's also no guarantee Bregman, Reed, or Tucker approach what Freddie has been consistently. Lots of young players flame out, or even don't live up to expectations. Bregman is the only one who doesn't have a lot to prove. So if those guys take a long time to develop, or a long time to become consistent contributors, or flame out, or become merely OK players, you just traded a 27-year old in his prime, who should remain in his prime for a few more years at least, for that. At some point, you need to hold onto some veterans that are consistent and have experience.

There is always risk. You mitigate that by hiring good scouts. Obviously you don't believe that the prospects flame out or you wouldn't do the deal to begin with. But, the $20+M saved is also important in mitigating risk for a team with a limited budget because you would use that money elsewhere. There's no guarantee that Freddie will continue at the same level, won't get hurt (Murphy, Esasky) or have a recurrence of the wrist issues robbing his power which would make him a useless 1B. That risk comes with payroll risk as well getting stuck on a limited budget with a player who can't perform or simply underperforms.

I think there is an argument to be made either way. If the young pitching had performed better this year and there were 1-2 FA possibilities that I thought could really help the Braves and the Braves were on pace to win72 games this year instead of 62, then I might feel differently.

 

[yeezus]

IF. I would say it's certainly possible, maybe even likely, Freeman will maintain. I say it's unlikely Teheran will be as the odds are very much against him.

As for Inciarte, the only area where I think he could improve is likely power production and he really isn't built for that. His OBP right now is .348. He could steal more bases (14 so far, 21 last year) but I don't ever see him being a 50sb guy. His defense is as good as it's likely to get. There just isn't a lot of room left for him to be better than he is now, unless he becomes a more powerful player and slugs more which is unlikely IMO.

I definitely think he could hit 10+ homers. I also could see him approaching an OPS of .800 some years. Maybe not consistently, but here and there. Plus his walk rates keep improving.

 

[yeezus]

I think there is an argument to be made either way. If the young pitching had performed better this year and there were 1-2 FA possibilities that I thought could really help the Braves and the Braves were on pace to win72 games this year instead of 62, then I might feel differently.

See, I think a lot of the young pitching performed very well. Maybe not the guys who we saw in the majors (save for the IMO encouraging signs from Folty), but they aren't our highest-ceiling guys, for the most part. I suppose it depends a lot on how far away one feels the team is.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

While not to this level exactly he has still shown a strong level of production the last 4 years and is entering his prime. So having a career year at age 26 is not a surprise. It's a quite normal progression path for a hitter. He should still be very productive through age 30 and hopefully longer.

I agree it's certainly possible. In no way am I saying I don't like Freeman or don't think he's a good player. I do think he's a good player but his value is wasted on the Braves right now. IMO, he is more valuable for 2018,19 and 20 in terms of what he could bring in trade and FA signing (with the $20M trading him frees up) than the value he would bring to the team during those seasons. Could that be wrong? Certainly. The prospects could crash and burn. The FA signing could bust.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

I definitely think he could hit 10+ homers. I also could see him approaching an OPS of .800 some years. Maybe not consistently, but here and there. Plus his walk rates keep improving.

But even so, how much would that incremental improvement move the needle for the team as a whole? My argument is that the big improvement has to come from others outside of Freeman, Inciarte and Teheran if you want to compete next year and I don't see where that big improvement comes from UNLESS they make some big trades which would require trading away a chunk of the minor league talent which is a short circuit of the rebuild. Kemp and Markakis are at least as likely to go get worse than improve simply because of age. Flowers has never been this good before. Will Albies in his first year be significantly better that what Peterson has provided? I would say Swanson has a good chance to significantly improve on what was seen in 2016 at SS. The young pitching looks to be 1.5-2 years away in reality unless you believe that Folty and Wisler will become consistent 7 inning guys with 3.5 era and 1-2 of the Gant, Whelan, Blair, Ellis, etc. near term crowd can be more that cup of coffee fodder.

 

[zbhargrove]

I think where we differ most is the idea that the team isn't that far away from competing. I agree completely that Freeman has turned himself into an elite level player (or at least exhibited a season where he is an elite level player, hopefully to sustain that level). But, he is likely at his peak now. As is Teheran and Inciarte. And the team is still going to lose close to 100 games (19 or so games just to get to .500, which is still not really competing). So, IMO, you can't count on any real improvement in terms of wins coming from those three players, they already are doing all they can. The other veterans on the team are just as likely to go backwards as forwards in terms of quality of play (Markakis, Flowers, Kemp). That means that the improvement needed will have to come from internal sources or external sources (FA, Trades). Internally, if they young guys progress well as we hope, there will be some level of improvement, but I think not a huge amount yet. The FA market isn't likely to provide much help because there isn't much to be had. And the Braves aren't likely to trade for guys who will be big help because of cost in return prospects.

Could the Braves challenge for a WC spot next year? Anything is possible. Is it likely? IMO, it is very unlikely and the small chance is not worth changing the long term foundation building that continuing the rebuild should bring.

Freddie is only 27 and still has quite a few peak years left. First basemen also usually last longer than most positions. Inciarte is 25 and Teheran is 25... how in the world are they at their peak?? They are the same age as some college prospects getting their first look. They have a ton of peak years left with even some room to still grow.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

See, I think a lot of the young pitching performed very well. Maybe not the guys who we saw in the majors (save for the IMO encouraging signs from Folty), but they aren't our highest-ceiling guys, for the most part. I suppose it depends a lot on how far away one feels the team is.

I am talking short term vs long term. The short term help with pitching (Folty - inconsistent, Wisler - inconsistent, Blair - horrible, Gant - inconsistent, Whalen - overmatched, Ellis - overmatched) hasn't really stepped up enough for me to be able to say I can see 2-3 developing into really good, stable rotation presences next year. I have hopes.

But, I think the real piching, the pitching that the Braves will ultimately build around, is at AA and below, likely 1.5-2 years away.

 

[zbhargrove]

I think where we differ most is the idea that the team isn't that far away from competing. I agree completely that Freeman has turned himself into an elite level player (or at least exhibited a season where he is an elite level player, hopefully to sustain that level). But, he is likely at his peak now. As is Teheran and Inciarte. And the team is still going to lose close to 100 games (19 or so games just to get to .500, which is still not really competing). So, IMO, you can't count on any real improvement in terms of wins coming from those three players, they already are doing all they can. The other veterans on the team are just as likely to go backwards as forwards in terms of quality of play (Markakis, Flowers, Kemp). That means that the improvement needed will have to come from internal sources or external sources (FA, Trades). Internally, if they young guys progress well as we hope, there will be some level of improvement, but I think not a huge amount yet. The FA market isn't likely to provide much help because there isn't much to be had. And the Braves aren't likely to trade for guys who will be big help because of cost in return prospects.

Could the Braves challenge for a WC spot next year? Anything is possible. Is it likely? IMO, it is very unlikely and the small chance is not worth changing the long term foundation building that continuing the rebuild should bring.

Looking at how we have played in the second half this year, I don't see how you could discount us being close to competing adding 2-3 pieces which we easily have the resources to do. Not to mention, long term we are still looking fantastic with the gobs of talent we have in the lower minors.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Freddie is only 27 and still has quite a few peak years left. First basemen also usually last longer than most positions. Inciarte is 25 and Teheran is 25... how in the world are they at their peak?? They are the same age as some college prospects getting their first look. They have a ton of peak years left with even some room to still grow.

I provided explanation regarding Freeman and Inciarte in other posts.

As for Teheran how do you expect him to get better than he already is? Do you expect his K rate to improve? His BB rate to improve? His era to improve? And how much? Enough were it makes any kind of statistical difference from where he is now?

It's not like he's walking 5 per 9 and would potentially hugely improve by cutting it to 2 per 9. It's not like he's got a huge fastball where better control would raise his k/9 from mid 7's up to 10.

He's about as good as he's going to be right now and odds are that he will get worse not better.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Looking at how we have played in the second half this year, I don't see how you could discount us being close to competing adding 2-3 pieces which we easily have the resources to do. Not to mention, long term we are still looking fantastic with the gobs of talent we have in the lower minors.

Everyone talks about SSS except when it doesn't fit the dialog. The Braves are still below .500 since the break. They have had a losing record every full month. Are they improved in the second half? Incrementally. Have they turned some mystical corner? I don't see it.

 

[mfree80]

Looking at how we have played in the second half this year, I don't see how you could discount us being close to competing adding 2-3 pieces which we easily have the resources to do. Not to mention, long term we are still looking fantastic with the gobs of talent we have in the lower minors.

This>>> Say you replace the worst 4-6 players on the team with 1-2 really good players and a few guys who are a good fit for the needs of the team. Given the emergence of a few guys in the 2nd half, and some guys that we know are coming soon, it only takes 1-2 really good additions to envision a team that competes for a playoff spot next year, and then takes an additional step up the competitiveness ladder the following year.

 

[yeezus]

But even so, how much would that incremental improvement move the needle for the team as a whole? My argument is that the big improvement has to come from others outside of Freeman, Inciarte and Teheran if you want to compete next year and I don't see where that big improvement comes from UNLESS they make some big trades which would require trading away a chunk of the minor league talent which is a short circuit of the rebuild. Kemp and Markakis are at least as likely to go get worse than improve simply because of age. Flowers has never been this good before. Will Albies in his first year be significantly better that what Peterson has provided? I would say Swanson has a good chance to significantly improve on what was seen in 2016 at SS. The young pitching looks to be 1.5-2 years away in reality unless you believe that Folty and Wisler will become consistent 7 inning guys with 3.5 era and 1-2 of the Gant, Whelan, Blair, Ellis, etc. near term crowd can be more that cup of coffee fodder.

I think we could see big improvements at SS and 2B next year. As in 2-3 WAR improvement, maybe more. I guess Kemp won't improve the WAR, but with Inciarte healthy and Swanson there every day, hitting behind those two and Freddie is a good 1-4, IMO. Coppy said today that 2 pitchers and catcher are their focus this offseason. I think in two years, Freddie, Ender, and Julio will still be very good, and we'll have a lot of influx of talent coming in,

 

[thewupk]

Everyone talks about SSS except when it doesn't fit the dialog. The Braves are still below .500 since the break. They have had a losing record every full month. Are they improved in the second half? Incrementally. Have they turned some mystical corner? I don't see it.

Position player wise they should look to upgrading 3B and possibly catcher. Pitching is where the improvement need to come if they want to contend next season.