Notes from today's AskCoppy event

TheBravos said:
numbers don't lie and proves WAR isn't always the best indicator.
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This recent stretch by the Braves doesn't prove Kemp is extremely valuable.

WAR is not a perfect stat, but it's also not unreliable in general terms. They take into account everything you've talked about. They've looked at things like lineup protection extensively and have discovered it's mostly myth.

If WAR considers Kemp to be worth 1 win consistently, you can make a pretty safe bet that he's not actually worth 3-4 wins.
 
nsacpi said:
The thought of Greinke as a possible trade target has also crossed my mind. 6 years remaining on the contract makes me less interested. Very different risk profile from Kemp with three years remaining.
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5 years remaining. We shouldnt have to take on his whole contract. No one else will and give up anything. Maybe we pawn Markakis off on them, thats 22 million over the first 2 years. He might do well in a good offensive park that pushes a few doubles into homers. I think we could also leverage some players in exchange for cash kind of like the Renteria/Marte deal. Wellington Castillo would be a decent/cheap catcher to pair with Flowers. I would love to see what Randall Delgado could do outside Arizona. And I think Brandy Drury would be a good fit for our team too.
 
smootness said:
This recent stretch by the Braves doesn't prove Kemp is extremely valuable.

WAR is not a perfect stat, but it's also not unreliable in general terms. They take into account everything you've talked about. They've looked at things like lineup protection extensively and have discovered it's mostly myth.

If WAR considers Kemp to be worth 1 win consistently, you can make a pretty safe bet that he's not actually worth 3-4 wins.
Click to expand...

That's' why we traded away our two highest WAR players I guess. It's a great tool in grading a player's talents that's it. Many big home run hitters have terrible WARs, and many average offensive players have good WARs. Yet....home run hitters are in high demand. I'll be the first to say, I thought big ole Kemp would make very little difference. If you watch the games...it's really an impossible argument to say he hasn't. He has made a huge impact on the offense and has produced. Yes, I gulp every time a ball is hit out there...he is UGLY. He still (with very little style), makes the play on most balls hit his way. I would rather have Kemp making $30 mil the next THREE years hitting 30+ HR & 100+ RBI a year than Heyward making $24 mil a YEAR hitting 10 HR & 50 RBI with a nice big WAR. How about the GREAT WAR stud Andrelton Simmons for 10 mil a YEAR hitting 3 HR & 36 whooping RBI this year. If you want to argue that we took on Kemp to cover a mistake...I give you that no problem. This WAR shamokery crap has to end as the end all be all player measurement tool. It's only one of MANY ways to grade a player.
 
TheBravos said:
Of course he is?? Our offense is completely different since he has arrived. I was really surprised at how much of a difference he has made, but numbers don't lie and proves WAR isn't always the best indicator. He might cost us a run on D every couple of weeks, but he consistently drives in a run most nights. He also gives guys like Freddie protection and he is killing it. Although Prado has a higher average, he has less RBI's and HR's than Markakis who is dogged relentlessly for his lack of power. Prado will sign for the same money OR more. Prado has great D and is a clutch professional player, but offensively his numbers are about the same as Gacia's and now that he is playing better defense...it's really only a marginal improvement for a lot more money.
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You lost me when you said Prado is only a marginal improvement over Garcia. That's just flat out silly.
 
Prado AB550 HR9 RBI63 R52 Hits170

SLG .411

Garcia AB467 HR13 RBI55 R57 Hits126

SLG .416

You are right...I'm an idiot to use the word marginal. Especially when you are paying one guy about 10 mil and the other guy is under control (and you also have another 3rd baseman in AAA who needs MLB time). Again, I like Prado...he will not make a huge difference.
 
this 3rd base debate has been done already. Basically two trains of thought.. will Prado be enough to justify the pay increase.. money spent on Prado won't be available for other upgrades. the other is Prado should be better than Adonis and the pay is not crippling enough to not want to improve that position.

I personally would rather use the money else where and platoon Rio and Adonis next season. I still think 17 is a season of discovery and not a season of contention.
 
TheBravos said:
Prado AB550 HR9 RBI63 R52 Hits170
SLG .411
Garcia AB467 HR13 RBI55 R57 Hits126
SLG .416

You are right...I'm an idiot to use the word marginal. Especially when you are paying one guy about 10 mil and the other guy is under control (and you also have another 3rd baseman in AAA who needs MLB time). Again, I like Prado...he will not make a huge difference.
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1. I never called you an idiot... I called you silly.

2. The difference between 170 and 126 hits is HUGE especially when you consider they are both slugging about the same. That's almost 50 more hits dude.
 
If you factor in almost 100 more at bats by Prado...it turns out to be only 20 or so more. Add that difference to his other stats also and Adonis would have more RBI, way more HRs and runs.
 
zbhargrove said:
1. I never called you an idiot... I called you silly.

2. The difference between 170 and 126 hits is HUGE especially when you consider they are both slugging about the same. That's almost 50 more hits dude.
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44 more hits 83 more ABs.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
this 3rd base debate has been done already. Basically two trains of thought.. will Prado be enough to justify the pay increase.. money spent on Prado won't be available for other upgrades. the other is Prado should be better than Adonis and the pay is not crippling enough to not want to improve that position.

I personally would rather use the money else where and platoon Rio and Adonis next season. I still think 17 is a season of discovery and not a season of contention.
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I'm with you on all accounts.
 
TheBravos said:
Prado AB550 HR9 RBI63 R52 Hits170
SLG .411
Garcia AB467 HR13 RBI55 R57 Hits126
SLG .416

You are right...I'm an idiot to use the word marginal. Especially when you are paying one guy about 10 mil and the other guy is under control (and you also have another 3rd baseman in AAA who needs MLB time). Again, I like Prado...he will not make a huge difference.
Click to expand...

Wow...

You are missing the monumental difference between their OBP (.360 vs .313) and Prado's immensely better defense. You are stuck in the dark ages of player evaluation. I recommend educating yourself a bit. Or stay ignorant, up to you.

Prado is easily worth 2-3 more wins than Garcia, and it isn't really debatable unless you are completely clueless about player evaluation (which it appears you are).
 
I'd still like to get Danny Valencia personally. I'm not sold on Prado and don't really want him, but I think he's still significantly better than Garcia.

Edit: Didn't realize that Valencia was already 31... so maybe not.
 
Enscheff said:
Wow...

You are missing the monumental difference between their OBP (.360 vs .313) and Prado's immensely better defense. You are stuck in the dark ages of player evaluation. I recommend educating yourself a bit. Or stay ignorant, up to you.

Prado is easily worth 2-3 more wins than Garcia, and it isn't really debatable unless you are completely clueless about player evaluation (which it appears you are).
Click to expand...

I love how everyone takes his best year in the last four and considers that year for his production. At least I'm not clueless about that.
 
zbhargrove said:
I'd still like to get Danny Valencia personally. I'm not sold on Prado and don't really want him, but I think he's still significantly better than Garcia.

Edit: Didn't realize that Valencia was already 31... so maybe not.
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Also, apparently no one wanted him at the trade deadline. Which is kinda odd. But supposed to be a bit of a clubhouse headache.
 
In that case... I think I'd like to see a cheap trade for McCann, and for us to sign Turner for 3rd on a 3 or 4 year deal... Don't love having McCann, but he's pretty much the option that makes the most sense at C that is available. Turner, McCann, Swanson, Albies, and a full year of Kemp immediately makes the lineup quite a bit better. Especially if Neck keeps improving his XBH numbers.

I'd like to see Ruiz make it next year, but I think he needs another year in AAA personally. I don't have much confidence in him being a very good MLB player next year.
 
zbhargrove said:
I'd still like to get Danny Valencia personally. I'm not sold on Prado and don't really want him, but I think he's still significantly better than Garcia.

Edit: Didn't realize that Valencia was already 31... so maybe not.
Click to expand...

If the Marlins are short-sighted enough to not make a QO to Martin, I don't think the Braves will be able to resist pursuing him heavily. Even if it means a lower spending pool for SP and C. The Marlin's FO is competent enough to know that a QO is the right choice, but you never know if Loria will veto a decision that heavily ways on his wallet.
 
TheBravos said:
That's' why we traded away our two highest WAR players I guess. It's a great tool in grading a player's talents that's it. Many big home run hitters have terrible WARs, and many average offensive players have good WARs. Yet....home run hitters are in high demand. I'll be the first to say, I thought big ole Kemp would make very little difference. If you watch the games...it's really an impossible argument to say he hasn't. He has made a huge impact on the offense and has produced. Yes, I gulp every time a ball is hit out there...he is UGLY. He still (with very little style), makes the play on most balls hit his way. I would rather have Kemp making $30 mil the next THREE years hitting 30+ HR & 100+ RBI a year than Heyward making $24 mil a YEAR hitting 10 HR & 50 RBI with a nice big WAR. How about the GREAT WAR stud Andrelton Simmons for 10 mil a YEAR hitting 3 HR & 36 whooping RBI this year. If you want to argue that we took on Kemp to cover a mistake...I give you that no problem. This WAR shamokery crap has to end as the end all be all player measurement tool. It's only one of MANY ways to grade a player.
Click to expand...

Goodness, man. We traded away our two 'highest WAR' players because they had one year left on their contracts, not because they weren't good.

And if you don't think Simmons is worth every bit of his contract, I don't know what to tell you.

Do you not think it's possible to hit a good number of HR and not be very valuable? Or to not hit many HR and actually be very valuable? Or is your player analysis tied almost exclusively to HR totals and errors?
 
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