The Don

Runnin said:
If Trump loses by more than a percentage point or two, who cares whether he accepts the defeat or not? No one expects him to be gracious and the show will go on. Any of his supporters dumb enough to cause trouble will most likely get exactly what they deserve.
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Get ready for Trump TV.
 
One good thing we can take out of all of this - even if Trump wins - is that the seedy old guard of the Republican party is toast after these elections.

Please watch Bill Kristol literally be brought to the verge of tears calling Trump's nomination a 'fluke'.

 
Either you people are living in a bubble or I'm the one living in a bubble.. because it sure does feel like an imminent landslide victory for Trump over here.
 
I also think he'll win too.

My hope is that it creates a ripple effect and gets some of the lifetime establishment politicians out of office and brings in some new blood.
 
I'm more likely to believe Clinton will snag 400 electoral votes than I am to believe Trump will win.
 
bravesnumberone said:
If there's a surge in turnout for Trump that isn't being captured by polls like I suspect there is, it might make enough of a difference in all or a lot of the swing states.
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What makes you see a surge? He has a terrible ground game which doesn't coincide with unexpected voters. 538 has his chances at 13%. He's basically sunk if he doesn't win Florida, and he isn't polling well there at all. He isn't winning PA. He isn't winning CO. He may even lose Arizona. I'd like to hear rationale for why he may win other than people's "feelings." Because basically nothing suggests he'll win.
 
Forever Fredi said:
I also think he'll win too.

My hope is that it creates a ripple effect and gets some of the lifetime establishment politicians out of office and brings in some new blood.
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Politicians are politicians. The DNA of their "new blood" automatically reconfigures into Old Boss blood when they take office, if not before.
 
Hawk said:
One good thing we can take out of all of this - even if Trump wins - is that the seedy old guard of the Republican party is toast after these elections.

Please watch Bill Kristol literally be brought to the verge of tears calling Trump's nomination a 'fluke'.

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I pay no attention to Morning Joe, but I heard about this while browsing the internet. I find it so ironic that eight years ago, Kristol was extolling the virtues of Sarah Palin and now he's fleeing from Palin's political love child. Kristol has to be the king of pseudo-intellectual dingbats.
 
yeezus said:
What makes you see a surge? He has a terrible ground game which doesn't coincide with unexpected voters. 538 has his chances at 13%. He's basically sunk if he doesn't win Florida, and he isn't polling well there at all. He isn't winning PA. He isn't winning CO. He may even lose Arizona. I'd like to hear rationale for why he may win other than people's "feelings." Because basically nothing suggests he'll win.
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Agreed. It was the same story the past two cycles. My money is on whatever 538 says is most likely to happen.
 
yeezus said:
What makes you see a surge? He has a terrible ground game which doesn't coincide with unexpected voters. 538 has his chances at 13%. He's basically sunk if he doesn't win Florida, and he isn't polling well there at all. He isn't winning PA. He isn't winning CO. He may even lose Arizona. I'd like to hear rationale for why he may win other than people's "feelings." Because basically nothing suggests he'll win.
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Would you accept the opinion of the DNC? In their emails they said polls could be worthless and that they expect Trump to poll 3-4% better than what the polls show.

Trump has a strong base of supporters and the Democrats did him a favor by nominating such a hated figure on the right that Trump will get a lot of Never Hillary people. I also won't be surprised if a lot of GJ voters turn to someone else. I know the prospect of prosecuting Hillary is a strong lure.
 
cajunrevenge said:
Would you accept the opinion of the DNC? In their emails they said polls could be worthless and that they expect Trump to poll 3-4% better than what the polls show.

Trump has a strong base of supporters and the Democrats did him a favor by nominating such a hated figure on the right that Trump will get a lot of Never Hillary people. I also won't be surprised if a lot of GJ voters turn to someone else. I know the prospect of prosecuting Hillary is a strong lure.
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I believe they want to keep their foot on the gas. Thinking you've already won and taking it off is a good way to slip up. Even a 3-4% increase for Trump is still a 3-4% loss for trump, considering Hillary is up about 7% right now.

I don't see a path to EC victory. He has to have almost every swing state, and every pretty much every recent poll has him down in every single swing state. That stuff doesn't tend to magically change on election day. And again, his lack of ground game is a killer, and his whining of a rigged election is more likely to suppress vote rather than the opposite.
 
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