2016-2017 Off-Season Thread

Food for thought regarding Sale and Archer trade values:

Matt
12:12 Would Jorge Soler, Eloy Jimenez, Jeimer Candelario, and a Low A pitcher be enough for Chris Archer?
Dave Cameron
12:12 No.

CT
12:17 Would Moncada, ERod, Devers plus low level prospects be close for Sale?
Dave Cameron
12:18 Depends on what low level prospects mean, but that probably gets the conversation going, at the minimum.
But yeah, that's the kind of package it would take, probably.

Kris
12:28 Should the Braves be going after Sale, Gray, Archer etc.? Those are gut the farm system type trade targets...why would they do that given their current spot on the rebuild curve?
Dave Cameron
12:29 They clearly want to move up their timetable to win, but also, I wouldn't take these rumors too seriously. It costs them nothing to make a phone call and find out what the asking price is. I don't think we'll actually see them make that kind of win-now trade this winter.

TJ
1:06 Puig, Pederson, De Leon and Verdugo for Chris Sale?
Dave Cameron
1:06 CHW does that. LA does not.

Guest
1:08 If you're the Astros, do you dangle Alex Bregman in a deal for Sale or Archer? I love the guy, but it seems like it'd be real easy to just slide Gurriel over to 3B
Dave Cameron
1:08 No, I'd hang on to Bregman.
 
Enscheff said:
Food for thought regarding Sale and Archer trade values:

Matt
12:12 Would Jorge Soler, Eloy Jimenez, Jeimer Candelario, and a Low A pitcher be enough for Chris Archer?
Dave Cameron
12:12 No.

CT
12:17 Would Moncada, ERod, Devers plus low level prospects be close for Sale?
Dave Cameron
12:18 Depends on what low level prospects mean, but that probably gets the conversation going, at the minimum.
But yeah, that's the kind of package it would take, probably.

Kris
12:28 Should the Braves be going after Sale, Gray, Archer etc.? Those are gut the farm system type trade targets...why would they do that given their current spot on the rebuild curve?
Dave Cameron
12:29 They clearly want to move up their timetable to win, but also, I wouldn't take these rumors too seriously. It costs them nothing to make a phone call and find out what the asking price is. I don't think we'll actually see them make that kind of win-now trade this winter.

TJ
1:06 Puig, Pederson, De Leon and Verdugo for Chris Sale?
Dave Cameron
1:06 CHW does that. LA does not.

Guest
1:08 If you're the Astros, do you dangle Alex Bregman in a deal for Sale or Archer? I love the guy, but it seems like it'd be real easy to just slide Gurriel over to 3B
Dave Cameron
1:08 No, I'd hang on to Bregman.
Click to expand...

I'm not really advocating going after anyone as it's all relative to the package required. However, I'm not a fan of the terms like "go for it" "gut the farm system". I don't think it's that cut and dry. You should always be looking to deal from an area of surplus for an area of need.

If we had 3 pitchers who could anchor our rotation for the next 3 years that would allow us a lot of flexibility. We could cherry pick the arms coming up since we'd only need 2 spots to fill (maybe even one if you're ok with a swingman or reclomation project vet as the #5) and you'd be able to trade the rest for hitting. In 2-3 years when the meat of our SP prospect depth is ready we'd be able to trade away guys like Julio/Folty/acquired young starter for prospects to replenish your depth. Tampa Bay has mastered this and that's with no budget.

We're also going to continue to draft more pitching and make trades like flipping Colon and Dickey in July for even more young pitching.

Once again, I'm not advocating anything without knowing the details, but I don't agree with the sentiment that you stop building the farm when you start trying to win. It takes a little more outside of the box thinking and more work like trading hitting for pitching and then trading pitching for hitting, but it can be done. I like how Coppy said "We're buying and selling". That's a stockbroker attitude and that's essentially what this is in it's simplest terms.
 
Just something to think about...

This is the same guy that the Astros up and decided to convert Evan Gattis back to catcher mid-season to replace.

He sucks. There has to be better options out there unless we are getting him for pennies on the dollar.
 
Enscheff said:
Right. The point of Castro is that he is a cheap 1-2 WAR player with additional framing value. As soon as he ceases to be cheap he is no longer desirable.
Click to expand...

While good framers are obviously better than bad framers there is some data going around that suggests umps have gotten better and aren't as influenced by catchers as they used to be. Could be a situation where that hidden value is going to start to decrease. Still, if Castro is a cheap pickup then it's a good move.
 
Chico said:
I don't think we'll get Sale, but one thing that increases the likelihood is if we knew he'd sign a pseudo extension..He's vastly underpaid with 3 years left on his deal. There's a chance he could be open to adding on 2-3 years at market price. Maybe a team could tear up that 3/38 contract he has left and offer him something like 6/125. The reason you don't go after free agent pitchers is you only get a few good years and overpay. This could be a situation where it's worth it....if you knew he and his agent were open to that kind of deal.
Click to expand...

Why would an extension increase the likelihood of acquiring him? Unless he has a NTC with the Braves on it, or has made some negative statement against Atlanta, it has zero bearing. Ditto for ripping up a team-friendly contract, which is kind of an important selling point for the interest. Plus, it would make sense to benefit from his contract year. By then, the system could develop somebody capable of replacing him, while his career starts to arc (thinking that he's not remain perennial ASG selection forever).
 
Screen_Shot_2016_11_16_at_4.08.39_PM.png
 
22-4, 223 innings, 3.15 era, 3.40 fip, 5.2 fWAR
16-9, 227 innings, 3.04 era, 3.48 fip, 5.2 fWAR

Both had great seasons and were deserving of the Cy Young.
 
thewupk said:
22-4, 223 innings, 3.15 era, 3.40 fip, 5.2 fWAR

16-9, 227 innings, 3.04 era, 3.48 fip, 5.2 fWAR

Both had great seasons and were deserving of the Cy Young.
Click to expand...

Kate's problem was two voters not having him on their ballot - meaning they didn't have her boy in their top five. And she's right.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Kate's problem was two voters not having him on their ballot - meaning they didn't have her boy in their top five. And she's right.
Click to expand...

Oh I agree with that. It likely cost him the Cy Young unless both of those were 5th place votes. But both were deserving of the award (along with Sale).
 
Chico said:
I'm not really advocating going after anyone as it's all relative to the package required. However, I'm not a fan of the terms like "go for it" "gut the farm system". I don't think it's that cut and dry. You should always be looking to deal from an area of surplus for an area of need.

If we had 3 pitchers who could anchor our rotation for the next 3 years that would allow us a lot of flexibility. We could cherry pick the arms coming up since we'd only need 2 spots to fill (maybe even one if you're ok with a swingman or reclomation project vet as the #5) and you'd be able to trade the rest for hitting. In 2-3 years when the meat of our SP prospect depth is ready we'd be able to trade away guys like Julio/Folty/acquired young starter for prospects to replenish your depth. Tampa Bay has mastered this and that's with no budget.

We're also going to continue to draft more pitching and make trades like flipping Colon and Dickey in July for even more young pitching.

Once again, I'm not advocating anything without knowing the details, but I don't agree with the sentiment that you stop building the farm when you start trying to win. It takes a little more outside of the box thinking and more work like trading hitting for pitching and then trading pitching for hitting, but it can be done. I like how Coppy said "We're buying and selling". That's a stockbroker attitude and that's essentially what this is in it's simplest terms.
Click to expand...

You definitely don't stop building the farm once you start trying to win, you're right about that. We've built our scouting department to hopefully sustain a strong minor-league system long-term.

But I disagree that getting 3 rotation 'anchors' guarantees you flexibility. Look at the Mets; at all times, you're basically a couple months away from potentially having nobody. It's just the way pitching is, it's a big risk. Part of the reason I like our strategy so much to this point is for precisely that reason: the more young pitching you have, the better chance you have of avoiding disaster because of injuries/regression, etc. Once you start packaging multiple pitchers for one guy, no matter who it is, you increase your risk quite a bit.
 
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