Making the MiLB rotations work with our current depth

dak

dak

Well-known member
As we've pondered trades in the post couple weeks, I've been wondering . . . do the Braves have adequate innings to give their MiLB SPs in light of current depth? Below is the best scenario I could come up with, which leads to 6 arms at each level. I'm sure I've managed to forget someone. This assumes Collmenter or another addition is the 5th starter in Atlanta and that Jesse Biddle is on an innings limit and goes to the instructional league at the outset.

Initial conclusion . . . we could make it work with some initial piggybacking until attrition arrives, but it wouldn't seem ideal for development. Several guys would need to start at lower levels than would seem to make sense. If the Braves are looking to make a trade, something involving one or more guys in that AAA group would help things to fall in place.

AAA

Wisler, Blair, Whalen, Perez, Gant, Jenkins

AA

Newcomb, Sims, Ellis, Mader, Weigel, Povse

A+

Fried, Toussaint, Soroka, Allard, Sanchez, Withrow

A

Anderson, Wentz, Muller, Wilson, Harrington, Walker
 
Geez, we have SOOOO much top shelf pitching talent in our lower levels. I know attrition will take its toll, but Fried, Touki, Soroka, Allard, Anderson, Wentz, and Muller all project as number 3's or better.
 
I think the time has come to transition some of them to the pen. We started to do this with Jenkins last season. I think someone like him might be able to boost his fastball a couple mph if pitching only an inning or two. His peripherals both at the major league and minor league level last year suggest he isn't a strong candidate for a major league rotation. Moving him to the pen would also allow the manager to control the kinds of hitters he faces.

Chris Ellis and Williams Perez to me profile as long relievers if anything at the major league level. Why not use one of them in that role in AAA.

Part of the solution to this "logjam" will be to shift some of these guys to the pen, which is where their best chances for success in the majors lies.

As things currently stand this is what I'm looking at:

Majors: Teheran, Dickey, Folty, Colon, Wisler with Collmenter as the long reliever.

AAA: Newcomb, Perez, Gant, Whalen, Blair with Jenkins and Ellis shifted to the pen

AA: Povse, Withrow, Mader, Weigel, Sims

High A: Allard, Soroka, Toussaint, Fried, Sanchez

Low A: Anderson, Wentz, Muller, Wilson, Walker with Harrington fast-tracked like Minter for a bullpen role

Povse and Sims are almost ready for AAA and I think those openings will come via promotions of the AAA guys to the majors and injuries/attrition. This in turn will open up a spot in AA for Fried, who hopefully will blow through High A.
 
You're right about moving guys to the pen soon. I think Sims would be high on that list if he struggles again to start the year. Plus fastball and curveball, questionable control. Seems like the ideal profile for a reliever anyway, and with those two pitches, he could end up being a good one.
 
dak said:
As we've pondered trades in the post couple weeks, I've been wondering . . . do the Braves have adequate innings to give their MiLB SPs in light of current depth? Below is the best scenario I could come up with, which leads to 6 arms at each level. I'm sure I've managed to forget someone. This assumes Collmenter or another addition is the 5th starter in Atlanta and that Jesse Biddle is on an innings limit and goes to the instructional league at the outset.

Initial conclusion . . . we could make it work with some initial piggybacking until attrition arrives, but it wouldn't seem ideal for development. Several guys would need to start at lower levels than would seem to make sense. If the Braves are looking to make a trade, something involving one or more guys in that AAA group would help things to fall in place.

AAA

Wisler, Blair, Whalen, Perez, Gant, Jenkins

AA

Newcomb, Sims, Ellis, Mader, Weigel, Povse

A+

Fried, Toussaint, Soroka, Allard, Sanchez, Withrow

A

Anderson, Wentz, Muller, Wilson, Harrington, Walker
Click to expand...

Your A+ is sick
 
dak said:
As we've pondered trades in the post couple weeks, I've been wondering . . . do the Braves have adequate innings to give their MiLB SPs in light of current depth? Below is the best scenario I could come up with, which leads to 6 arms at each level. I'm sure I've managed to forget someone. This assumes Collmenter or another addition is the 5th starter in Atlanta and that Jesse Biddle is on an innings limit and goes to the instructional league at the outset.

Initial conclusion . . . we could make it work with some initial piggybacking until attrition arrives, but it wouldn't seem ideal for development. Several guys would need to start at lower levels than would seem to make sense. If the Braves are looking to make a trade, something involving one or more guys in that AAA group would help things to fall in place.

AAA
Wisler, Blair, Whalen, Perez, Gant, Jenkins

AA
Newcomb, Sims, Ellis, Mader, Weigel, Povse

A+
Fried, Toussaint, Soroka, Allard, Sanchez, Withrow

A
Anderson, Wentz, Muller, Wilson, Harrington, Walker
Click to expand...

I think some of the AAA guys will be in the pen.

I see AAA as: Wisler, Blair, Whalen, Sims, Ellis with Perez cut and Gant & Jenkins in the pen

AA: Newcomb, Mader, Weigel, Povse, Fried

A+: Toussaint, Soroka, Allard, Sanchez, Withrow

A: Anderson, Wentz, Muller, Wilson, Harrington, Walker
 
Mine is a little different, but either way you slice it there is a lot of depth there. We are definitely going to trade from some of this depth. We like the smaller deals for buy low arms, and as it stands right now we'd have no room to make those kind of moves.
 
I think Jenkins and Perez to the pen is reasonable, though I wouldn't prefer it to an alternative of trading from AAA depth. Gant is one of my personal favorites, but he may be the best one to trade. The Braves seem to view him as a reliever, but I could see some of the more statistically oriented teams wanting to try him as a back end SP this year and valuing him more than the Braves.
 
IMO, there is no way Newcomb is in AA. This is not targeting you at all DAK but for some reason Newcomb has become underrated in the community from what I've read the past couple of days.
 
dak said:
I think Jenkins and Perez to the pen is reasonable, though I wouldn't prefer it to an alternative of trading from AAA depth. Gant is one of my personal favorites, but he may be the best one to trade. The Braves seem to view him as a reliever, but I could see some of the more statistically oriented teams wanting to try him as a back end SP this year and valuing him more than the Braves.
Click to expand...

I like Gant too. Assuming normal attrition, we are going to call on two or three starters from AAA to make a significant number of major league starts. Having some depth in AAA is a good thing.
 
thethe said:
IMO, there is no way Newcomb is in AA. This is not targeting you at all DAK but for some reason Newcomb has become underrated in the community from what I've read the past couple of days.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I agree that Newcomb to AA is not preferred. Same could be said for Sims, but maybe to a lesser degree. I'd also be interested in seeing Fried at AA. Part of my intent was to show that AAA would be the level of pitching to trade from in order to give everyone the right development opportunities. Also, I see our AAA depth needs for SP as in the normal range this year given our veteran acquisitions. Last year our AAA depth needs were obviously way above normal. We could trade multiple AAA-level SPs and still have adequate depth, IMO. If the goal is to trade non-core players from positions of depth (and I think it should be), MLB-ready pitching that projects somewhere between mid / back of the rotation is where we have depth.
 
nsacpi said:
So what do we get for a package of Perez, Jenkins and Ellis?
Click to expand...

Room for others to develop, for one thing. You can't tell me they can't come up with a more-than-adequate catcher to fill that need without (shudder) Tuffy Gosewich being in the mix.
 
rico43 said:
Room for others to develop, for one thing. You can't tell me they can't come up with a more-than-adequate catcher to fill that need without (shudder) Tuffy Gosewich being in the mix.
Click to expand...

Give a player you want that you think a package of Perez, Ellis and Jenkins might get us.
 
nsacpi said:
See above post.
Click to expand...

I'm sure he wouldn't approve the deal and I wouldn't do it, but I think Brandon Phillips is the kind of player we'd be settling for in a deal of those players. Maybe we can trade them to ourselves for Nick Markakis.
 
The types of players I'd target would be average regulars with around 2 years of control, ideally. Drew Smyly and Derek Norris are a couple of names. Vets signed to contracts with lesser surplus value would also be a good approach. These types of deals should be do-able without including prospects we see as future core players. I'd prefer to keep our depth at the low minors, and just use 45 FV - 50 FV guys at the AAA and maybe AA levels. Depending on one's evaluation, that is a pretty long list of names: Wisler, Blair, Gant, Whalen, Povse, Ellis, Smith, Ruiz, Peterson, etc. As I've noted previously, my preference is still adding through free agency. But if the FO feels a trade needs to be made, I prefer this more modest approach and think it's a better fit for the current state of the organization.
 
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