2016-2017 Off-Season Thread

[dak]

Ain't that the truth. I think there will be options out there, but I'm not that high on any of the top-tier guys available.

Yeah, we should be cautious on Wieters and Ramos. I'd prefer not to aggressively pursue either right now. If one of them loses the game of musical chairs and is left without a realistic market in 4-6 weeks, then you engage and offer them a way out. For example, if the O's get Hundley (really hoping they do) and the Nats get Ramos / Wieters, who is left to that would be willing to overpay the top remaining player? The Rays have a need, but are stingy. The White Sox have a need, but seem focused on a rebuild. We could be left as the only team with money and with 400 - 450 ABs to offer.

 

[smootness]

I'm coming around on the idea of acquiring Longoria. The Johns keep saying they want roster options. If we acquired Longo it could create some further trading options. By all accounts he's a good clubhouse and team first guy. That would allow us to make Nick more expendable as the defacto positional player captain. He has enough right handed pop that he could slide in to the 4 hole and protect Freeman. That makes Kemp more expendable. He'd make Adonis/Ruiz/Riley all expendable to be used in trades this offseason.

But would you be ok giving up a package of something like: Albies, Newcomb, Riley, Wentz? Because it would probably take something similar.

 

[thethe]

I don't believe the Braves have any interest in trading Kemp. Especially not after the productio he showed since acquired. Money is not an issue longterm for the organziation IMO.

 

[Chico]

But would you be ok giving up a package of something like: Albies, Newcomb, Riley, Wentz? Because it would probably take something similar.

I don't think it would take that kind of package for Longoria. That's a Longoria and Odorrizi package.

 

[clvclv]

I know most aren't big on him, but listening to Bowden this morning on XM - he seems to think we're going to get Wieters. He projected contract numbers, but I didn't hear them.

If that's not the case, I really wonder if passing on Castro could be a sign that they're at least quietly considering Turner. Garcia obviously isn't a long-term consideration (and has been struggling this winter for whatever little that's worth), there are still questions about Ruiz' power and Riley's defense, and Maitan can likely play pretty much wherever they put him.

Turner's known for being the type of vocal clubhouse leader that we don't have - everyone else we have are lead-by-example guys. He's better defensively than anyone we have (excluding Maitan probably), offers the pop we haven't had there in awhile (even Chipper wasn't near the threat he had been in his last few seasons), and fits the mold of that team "spokesman". I think we all understand that you don't want to give up a draft pick, but Turner fits every bit as well as Longoria (IMO) for similar money - PLUS giving up a second rounder that we don't even have yet is much more palatable to me than giving up what it will take to pry Longoria away from the Rays.

I look at it this way - every prospect saved by not dealing for a 3B can be used in the event we do decide to trade for an "Ace". Longoria's a year younger and under contract for through 2022 for $99 million. Offering Turner the fifth year at $16-$17 million (probably what it will take) would give you control over him for the same period - while saving $15-$20 million PLUS all those prospects.

Turner (162 game averages) - .282/.348/.439/.787, 118 OPS+

Longoria (162 game averages) - .272/.341/.490/.834, 128 OPS+

 

[clvclv]

I don't think it would take that kind of package for Longoria. That's a Longoria and Odorrizi package.

Maybe not quite that much, but it will take a substantial package - much higher than most here would be willing to pay.

 

[Chico]

I don't believe the Braves have any interest in trading Kemp. Especially not after the productio he showed since acquired. Money is not an issue longterm for the organziation IMO.

I don't think we plan on it either, but if we have options and we get an offer we can't refuse then I can see us trading anyone not named Swanson or Freeman.

I think the plan is to have options come July to straight up sell or buy and sell if we're in it.

 

[UNCBlue012]

I know most aren't big on him, but listening to Bowden this morning on XM - he seems to think we're going to get Wieters. He projected contract numbers, but I didn't hear them.

If that's not the case, I really wonder if passing on Castro could be a sign that they're at least quietly considering Turner. Garcia obviously isn't a long-term consideration (and has been struggling this winter for whatever little that's worth), there are still questions about Ruiz' power and Riley's defense, and Maitan can likely play pretty much wherever they put him.

Turner's known for being the type of vocal clubhouse leader that we don't have - everyone else we have are lead-by-example guys. He's better defensively than anyone we have (excluding Maitan probably), offers the pop we haven't had there in awhile (even Chipper wasn't near the threat he had been in his last few seasons), and fits the mold of that team "spokesman". I think we all understand that you don't want to give up a draft pick, but Turner fits every bit as well as Longoria (IMO) for similar money - PLUS giving up a second rounder that we don't even have yet is much more palatable to me than giving up what it will take to pry Longoria away from the Rays.

I look at it this way - every prospect saved by not dealing for a 3B can be used in the event we do decide to trade for an "Ace". Longoria's a year younger and under contract for through 2022 for $99 million. Offering Turner the fifth year at $16-$17 million (probably what it will take) would give you control over him for the same period - while saving $15-$20 million PLUS all those prospects.

Turner (162 game averages) - .282/.348/.439/.787, 118 OPS+
Longoria (162 game averages) - .272/.341/.490/.834, 128 OPS+

Dude, I'd LOVE to get Turner -- even with the pick. I've said it from the beginning. I think he should be a prime target.

 

[Enscheff]

And the Twins wonder why they are spinning their wheels. I wonder where Suzuki lands. I wasn't in on Castro because I don't think he's going to hit at all wherever he goes.

Actually, signing Castro is a clear sign the Twins are finally stepping out of the dark ages when it comes to valuing the catcher position. Pitch framing was one of the last places savvy teams could go for undervalued players.

A quote from BP on this transaction:

"Minnesota's front office regime change was all about bringing the Twins into the modern era of baseball decision-making and the first signing of the Derek Falvey/Thad Levine era is a perfect example of just how much things have changed compared to Terry Ryan's two decades at the helm.
Jason Castro is a poor-hitting catcher--low average, OK walk rate, decent power--with mediocre caught-stealing totals, but he's emerged as one of the best in baseball at framing pitches. He's very much a new-school target--a player whose perceived value is tied almost entirely to whether you're aware of and buy into a relatively new measure of defense. He's a backup-caliber catcher if you're a not believer and a good starting catcher--worth about, say, $24.5 million for three years--if you're a believer. Falvey and Levine are believers, and now so are the Twins."

And the guys at FG also explained it:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jason-castro-is-a-step-in-the-right-direction-for-the-twins/

If the Braves sign a catcher like Wieters or Ramos while failing to go 3/25 on Castro, it is a clear sign they are moving backwards in terms of baseball thinking. They missed the boat on Castro, and it would be foolish to compound the error by signing a relatively useless player like Wieters, or a huge injury risk like Ramos.

Hopefully they are smarter than that.

Now that Castro and Mac are off the table, the correct value move is to stick with a Flowers/Recker tandem.

 

[Carp]

But would you be ok giving up a package of something like: Albies, Newcomb, Riley, Wentz? Because it would probably take something similar.

While obviously the markets are different, the Donaldson trade is a pretty good comp on what to expect to give up.

I don't think it'd be as much as you think.

 

[Enscheff]

I don't believe the Braves have any interest in trading Kemp. Especially not after the productio he showed since acquired. Money is not an issue longterm for the organziation IMO.

The FA market is literally flooded with bat-first guys that fake it in corner positions. There couldn't be a worse time to trade Kemp.

Folks are still holding out hope for some huge roster shake up, but fact of the matter is that the roster is likely set. The Braves will bring in some fungible bench parts like KJ and Frenchy, but what we see now is likely the roster we see on opening day.

The only caveat is a potential huge deal involving Inciarte. I could definitely see a trade going down where Inciarte brings back a controllable SP or 3B.

Outside of that, these are your 2017 Atlanta Braves! Try not to get too excited.

 

[thethe]

The FA market is literally flooded with bat-first guys that fake it in corner positions. There couldn't be a worse time to trade Kemp.

Folks are still holding out hope for some huge roster shake up, but fact of the matter is that the roster is likely set. The Braves will bring in some fungible bench parts like KJ and Frenchy, but what we see now is likely the roster we see on opening day.

The only caveat is a potential huge deal involving Inciarte. I could definitely see a trade going down where Inciarte brings back a controllable SP or 3B.

Outside of that, these are your 2017 Atlanta Braves! Try not to get too excited.

I'm just wondering why we shouldn't be excited to have Kemp in the middle of the order the next few years.

 

[thethe]

I agree a roster shakeup for the everyday players is unlikely as well. The only big move left if there is one to make is a top of the rotation pitcher. Obviously I'm optimistic but I think at worst we have a top 5 offense in the NL next year.

 

[Enscheff]

I'm just wondering why we shouldn't be excited to have Kemp in the middle of the order the next few years.

Middle of the order? Great!

1300+ innings in LF? A disaster.

There is this fallacy out there that Kemp will lose 10-15 pounds and suddenly be a capable defender. The facts are that he was a terrible defender in his mid-20s before he got fat. He was a terrible defender before the injuries. Losing a few pounds isn't going to change either of those facts.

Quite simply, there is no way Kemp is anything but bad defensively next year. The only question is how bad? Is he so bad that he is essentially a 0 win player overall? Or is he only bad enough that he is a 1+ win player overall? I'm guessing he is a 1 win player, which is nothing to be excited about.

Now let's take a look at "top 5 offense in the NL next year"...

The Braves scored 649 runs last year (29th in MLB). The 5th ranked offense in the NL last year (Arizona) scored 752 runs. I'm having a hard time seeing where a 100 run improvement comes from with the current roster. I'm thinking they will be lucky to break 700 runs next year and be middle of the pack in the NL.

 

[thethe]

Middle of the order? Great!

1300+ innings in LF? A disaster.

There is this fallacy out there that Kemp will lose 10-15 pounds and suddenly be a capable defender. The facts are that he was a terrible defender in his mid-20s before he got fat. He was a terrible defender before the injuries. Losing a few pounds isn't going to change either of those facts.

Quite simply, there is no way Kemp is anything but bad defensively next year. The only question is how bad? Is he so bad that he is essentially a 0 win player overall? Or is he only bad enough that he is a 1+ win player overall? I'm guessing he is a 1 win player, which is nothing to be excited about.

Now let's take a look at "top 5 offense in the NL next year"...

The Braves scored 649 runs last year. The 5th ranked offnse in the NL last year (Arizona) scored 752 runs. I'm having a hard time seeing where a 100 run improvement comes from with the current roster. I'm thinking they will be lucky to break 700 runs next year and be middle of the pack in the NL.

And I don't believe full season numbers are relevant to what the 2017 braves offense will produce.

You may disagree but I do know that Aybar will have 0 ABS for the braves next year along with the disaster in LF prior to Kemp.

 

[striker42]

I think we'll make one big addition. Even though we checked in on the top line starters, I don't see us emptying the cupboard for them.

I get the feeling we're going to upgrade at third. I know there hasn't been much in the way of actual rumors about us looking for a third baseman but I don't think the team is sold on Garcia. After all, they sent him down to AAA and tried to make him an outfielder at one point.

I think someone will be available that fits there and we'll pounce. If the Cubs dangle Baez I think we'd be all over him. Not sure we match up well with the Cubs though.

The other spot I could see a big upgrade being made is the closer role. The last this the front office will want is to see lots of late inning leads slipping away the first year in the new park. If we grab a solid closer then everyone slides down a spot and your pen gets much, much deeper.

 

[50PoundHead]

I think we'll make one big addition. Even though we checked in on the top line starters, I don't see us emptying the cupboard for them.

I get the feeling we're going to upgrade at third. I know there hasn't been much in the way of actual rumors about us looking for a third baseman but I don't think the team is sold on Garcia. After all, they sent him down to AAA and tried to make him an outfielder at one point.

I think someone will be available that fits there and we'll pounce. If the Cubs dangle Baez I think we'd be all over him. Not sure we match up well with the Cubs though.

The other spot I could see a big upgrade being made is the closer role. The last this the front office will want is to see lots of late inning leads slipping away the first year in the new park. If we grab a solid closer then everyone slides down a spot and your pen gets much, much deeper.

Maddon loves guys like Baez and I don't see them wanting to move him. A lot depends on Fowler. If he goes somewhere else, I could see them being interested in Inciarte or Mallex.

 

[thethe]

Maddon loves guys like Baez and I don't see them wanting to move him. A lot depends on Fowler. If he goes somewhere else, I could see them being interested in Inciarte or Mallex.

Would you be in favor of trading Iciarte and putting Mallex in CF?

 

[Chico]

The FA market is literally flooded with bat-first guys that fake it in corner positions. There couldn't be a worse time to trade Kemp.

Folks are still holding out hope for some huge roster shake up, but fact of the matter is that the roster is likely set. The Braves will bring in some fungible bench parts like KJ and Frenchy, but what we see now is likely the roster we see on opening day.

The only caveat is a potential huge deal involving Inciarte. I could definitely see a trade going down where Inciarte brings back a controllable SP or 3B.

Outside of that, these are your 2017 Atlanta Braves! Try not to get too excited.

Nothing about this front office makes me think we're set this early in the offseason. They couldn't sit on their hands all offseason if they tied them down.

 

[Enscheff]

Food for thought from Dave Cameron:

CarrotJuice
12:03 Give me your hottest take on Castro signing!
Dave Cameron
12:04 If the team that employs Mike Fast isn't interested in bringing you back, maybe your framing value isn't as likely to continue as the Twins are hoping.

Sam
12:05 Assume: 1) Braves don't make any silly moves, 2) several of their top prospects develop as predicted. Playoffs in 2018?
Dave Cameron
12:07 Let's say they're about a ~75 win team now. If we give them real improvements from Swanson and Albies along with a couple of the arms, okay, now they're at ~80? Because it's not like those improved arms are replacing zeros; Colon and Dickey project for ~+3 WAR in 2017, so swapping in young kids for those two isn't going to be some massive upgrade.
Now, if they take the Colon/Dickey money and spend big on a premium FA next year, okay, that could get them to the mid-80s.
But they're not that close.

JohnJahaFan93
12:35 In terms of a guy like Chris Archer, with that much control and surplus value, are there scenarios where it makes sense for a probable non-contending team to trade for him? Especially if they have a high pick in the 2017 draft.
Dave Cameron
12:35 Not really. With any pitcher, the value is still almost all in the short term, because there's so much risk of long-term breakdown, that having a non-contender outbid contenders who could use the 2017 value doesn't make sense.