Unintended Result Of The New CBA

nsacpi said:
The information I'm seeing with respect to teams losing a QO FA is as follows:

In terms of compensation, an organization which loses a QO-declining player who signs for $50MM or more will pick up a draft choice “after the first round.” If a QO-declining player inks for under $50MM with another organization, the draft compensation slides to “after competitive balance round B.” There’s a different set of rules for teams that are over the luxury tax line; any compensatory picks they receive will take place after the draft’s fourth round.

I believe almost all FA with QO will be able to get deals over 50MM under the new rules. No?
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Yes, there is no incentive for teams to hand out $49M contracts.
 
Most interesting with respect to the Braves is this:

"And all other teams would stand to give up their second-highest pick along with $500K in international bonus funds."

There is no talk about protected picks that I have seen. A team like the Braves (with a top 10 pick) will still lose the same pick for signing a FA that they would have lost under the old CBA. The penalty for the Braves signing a QO FA next offseason has NOT changed under this new CBA. This likely means the Braves will NOT be signing FAs with a QO attached next offseason either.

If the plan was to forego signing Castro this season in favor of holding out to sign Lucroy next offseason with the hopes of the draft pick penalty being gone, it was a huge miscalculation by the Braves.
 
Enscheff said:
The new rules are pretty confusing. The compensation for losing a QO FA is related to how much the player signs for, and whether or not the team is above or below the luxury tax threshold:

"In terms of compensation, an organization which loses a QO-declining player who signs for $50MM or more will pick up a draft choice “after the first round.” If a QO-declining player inks for under $50MM with another organization, the draft compensation slides to “after competitive balance round B.” There’s a different set of rules for teams that are over the luxury tax line; any compensatory picks they receive will take place after the draft’s fourth round."

The amount of the contract signed by the FA has nothing to do with how the signing team is penalized. The penalty for signing a QO FA is determined by the team's revenue sharing status:

"Revenue-sharing recipients would lose their third-highest selection (not necessarily a third-round choice). Revenue-sharing contributors would lose their second and fifth-highest selections and also sacrifice $1MM in international signing availability. And all other teams would stand to give up their second-highest pick along with $500K in international bonus funds."
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It seems to me they have found a way to continue compensating teams that lose highly productive free agents while reducing the negative effects on the market for some of the guys with qualifying offers. On top of that they have differentiated both the penalty and the compensation sides of the equations between high revenue and low revenue teams. Those changes will work to further increase parity between small and big market teams.

I also saw somewhere that free agents traded during the season will no longer be treated differently when it comes to qualifying offers. I haven't seen confirmation of this. But it seems to me this is a move that would increase the attractiveness of short-term rentals at the deadline. If you can a draft pick and half a season's worth of games from them, that would have a significant effect on their trade value.
 
Enscheff said:
Most interesting with respect to the Braves is this:

"And all other teams would stand to give up their second-highest pick along with $500K in international bonus funds."

There is no talk about protected picks that I have seen. A team like the Braves (with a top 10 pick) will still lose the same pick for signing a FA that they would have lost under the old CBA. The penalty for the Braves signing a QO FA next offseason has NOT changed under this new CBA. This likely means the Braves will NOT be signing FAs with a QO attached next offseason either.

If the plan was to forego signing Castro this season in favor of holding out to sign Lucroy next offseason with the hopes of the draft pick penalty being gone, it was a huge miscalculation by the Braves.
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Well if we do not have a top 10 pick then the new rules do make a difference. No? Under the old rules signing Lucroy next off-season would cost us our #1 assuming it was not a protected pick.
 
nsacpi said:
The information I'm seeing with respect to teams losing a QO FA is as follows:

In terms of compensation, an organization which loses a QO-declining player who signs for $50MM or more will pick up a draft choice “after the first round.” If a QO-declining player inks for under $50MM with another organization, the draft compensation slides to “after competitive balance round B.” There’s a different set of rules for teams that are over the luxury tax line; any compensatory picks they receive will take place after the draft’s fourth round.

I believe almost all FA with QO will be able to get deals over 50MM under the new rules. No?
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We're talking specific players here - not in general.

Again, the QO next season is likely to approach $20 million. If you're in DMGM's chair and have to offer that much to Moustakas to retain him for another year, do you do it? Keep in mind that no one's likely to go five years for him, so someone that offers 3 years/$48 million with a team option for a fourth with a $1 million buyout probably gets him. Most predictions I've seen for Justin Turner are ~$17 million per, and I think Moustakas at a $16 million AAV would be about right.

In that scenario, DMGM's gambling $20 million against a second-rounder that Moustakas doesn't accept and return for another year? If he does, there's absolutely no way they can even think about extending Hosmer, Cain, or Duffy.
 
Enscheff said:
Most interesting with respect to the Braves is this:

"And all other teams would stand to give up their second-highest pick along with $500K in international bonus funds."

There is no talk about protected picks that I have seen. A team like the Braves (with a top 10 pick) will still lose the same pick for signing a FA that they would have lost under the old CBA. The penalty for the Braves signing a QO FA next offseason has NOT changed under this new CBA. This likely means the Braves will NOT be signing FAs with a QO attached next offseason either.

If the plan was to forego signing Castro this season in favor of holding out to sign Lucroy next offseason with the hopes of the draft pick penalty being gone, it was a huge miscalculation by the Braves.
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Depends on how the Braves play in 2017. But if they are average next year and then sign Lucroy they would of lost their #1 pick under the current system but keep it under the new system. At least that's how I'm reading it.
 
nsacpi said:
Well if we do not have a top 10 pick then the new rules do make a difference. No? Under the old rules signing Lucroy next off-season would cost us our #1 assuming it was not a protected pick.
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Yeah, I'm assuming the Braves are not going to be good in 2017 and would have had a protected pick. Teams typically need to win 75+ wins to drop outside the top 10 picks, and I doubt the Braves win that many.
 
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