Braves acquire garcia

[Enscheff]

Pennants are won with pitching, defense and 3-run homers. Not with spreadsheets. Spreadsheets help figure out where the pitching, defense, and 3-run homers are likely to come from.

You need to stop saying with certainty that the "Braves are a 75-win team." They could easily be more than that - or less. I said last year that the team was a 60-win team. I was pretty close. Know why? Not enough pitching, defense, or three run homers.

Your statistical analysis is fraught with spurious accuracy. False precision, if you will.

The issue is that you don't know what it means when someone says "the Braves are a 75 win team". Go out and learn a little about statistics, and then you won't be so upset over those comments. While you're at it, maybe learn how to use spreadsheets for more than the arithmetic used in calculating taxes.

Go out and learn enough to understand what this phrase means: "the projected win total for the Braves is a normal distribution curve with the peak located at 75 wins".

Until you know exactly what that phrase means, all your arguments against it are completely ignorant and pointless. When you understand enough about statistics to comprehend what that phrase means, you will stop saying moronic things like, "You need to stop saying with certainty that the Braves are a 75-win team". You will understand that silly statements you make like that aren't even counter to the idea you are trying to argue against.

The most likely outcome for the Braves is 75 wins. The next most likely outcomes are 74 or 76 wins. Less likely is 73 or 77 wins, then 72 or 78 wins. And on and on, until you hit the extremely unlikely case of the Braves winning 85+ games. Given that 75 wins is the most likely outcome, it is wise to plan around being a "75 win team".

 

[striker42]

Why do you care about $12M for one year? It's not a long term investment and in the current market $12M is nothing. It's not preventing us from going after Sale. If he's healthy that's actually a favorable price for a proven #3 starter. Yes he has injury concerns, that's the only reason why you get him for fringe pieces like Gant and Ellis. Go back and look at Garcia's year last year. He was solid for a good part of the year then hit a wall hard. I don't know which version we'll get but the one thing I know is we won't miss Gant and Ellis. I'd rather take a shot on a proven middle of the rotation SP with injury concerns. If he sucks, no harm.....if he contributes and we're in contention for a WC spot, great.....or if we suck but he does well then mid season he sure as hell could bring us a better piece then Gant and Ellis.

Bottom line is this is a no risk move with the potential for a very nice payoff.

Even if the money is nothing to us (something I don't necessarily buy) it still affects Garcia's value in the market. That's my point. A guy on the wrong side of 30 with a long history of injuries who was bad last year and has a $12 million price tag doesn't have a ton of value.

 

[thethe]

The issue is that you don't know what it means when someone says "the Braves are a 75 win team". Go out and learn a little about statistics, and then you won't be so upset over those comments. While you're at it, maybe learn how to use spreadsheets for more than the arithmetic used in calculating taxes.

Go out and learn enough to understand what this phrase means: "the projected win total for the Braves is a normal distribution curve with the peak located at 75 wins".

Until you know exactly what that phrase means, all your arguments against it are completely ignorant and pointless. When you understand enough about statistics to comprehend what that phrase means, you will stop saying moronic things like, "You need to stop saying with certainty that the Braves are a 75-win team". You will understand that silly statements you make like that aren't even counter to the idea you are trying to argue against.

The most likely outcome for the Braves is 75 wins. The next most likely outcomes are 74 or 76 wins. Less likely is 73 or 77 wins, then 72 or 78 wins. And on and on, until you hit the extremely unlikely case of the Braves winning 85+ games. Given that 75 wins is the most likely outcome, it is wise to plan around being a "75 win team".

Please share your standard deviation calculations since you're so certain about the likelihood of the braves winning x amount of games.

 

[gilesfan]

Right now, fangraphs has the Braves at 25.6 WAR. I think that is a bit low, particularly on offense with Freeman and Inciarte. That suggests 74 wins. I think maybe 76-78. Say adding Sale is 5 so you are pushing 80 without accounting for which players you give up. If it is Inciarte and Folty, that's roughly 4 being subtracted and maybe 1-1.5 being added back with additional playing time for Mallex.

 

[Tapate50]

Even if the money is nothing to us (something I don't necessarily buy) it still affects Garcia's value in the market. That's my point. A guy on the wrong side of 30 with a long history of injuries who was bad last year and has a $12 million price tag doesn't have a ton of value.

Not that I don't agree that 12M for Garcia's numbers last year was steep, but did you see what below average pitching went for last year at the deadline? I mean a LHP starter with quality stuff at the deadline having a pretty good year was getting real nice players in return not to mention at less than half of 12m

I bet we are banking on a HR\9 normalizing, and then a flip at the deadline given health (not a given).

In other words, a way to flip an investment for better prospects than we gave up here and generally improve the pipeline to MLB club.

 

[smootness]

Right now, fangraphs has the Braves at 25.6 WAR. I think that is a bit low, particularly on offense with Freeman and Inciarte. That suggests 74 wins. I think maybe 76-78. Say adding Sale is 5 so you are pushing 80 without accounting for which players you give up. If it is Inciarte and Folty, that's roughly 4 being subtracted and maybe 1-1.5 being added back with additional playing time for Mallex.

I think this is about right. If things really went right for us next year, meaning we had more guys outperform expectations than underperform, and we got a little lucky, we could challenge for a WC spot. But everything would have to go right. We should hope for it but certainly not plan around it.

 

[thewupk]

A personal note on my opinion of the Braves current win total projection. Fangraphs/Steamer currently have them at 76 wins after getting Garcia. My only real issue is they have Ender/Nick/Kemp combining for 2.9 WAR. I think Ender beats that by himself. He's been at 3.3 and 3.6 the last two years. They expect his defense to take a drop and I don' really see that happening. The other thing is I have higher hopes for Nick and Kemp that 0.9 WAR combined. I think they could both be 1 WAR players each. So that would push an expected win total to 79. I would say the Braves probably project something similar internally.

 

[mfree80]

It's so wild. Nothing is impossible with this front office. It's all about buying time for the kids to be ready.

This is the point. All of these guys are placeholders awaiting a young guy to show he is good enough to move them for. Optimistically, they are all traded because some combination of Newcomb, Sims, Wisler, Blair, etc. push them aside. Even if that doesn't happen and they pitch for us all year, the next wave is one year closer to being here.

I really can't fault this strategy.

 

[thethe]

A personal note on my opinion of the Braves current win total projection. Fangraphs/Steamer currently have them at 76 wins after getting Garcia. My only real issue is they have Ender/Nick/Kemp combining for 2.9 WAR. I think Ender beats that by himself. He's been at 3.3 and 3.6 the last two years. They expect his defense to take a drop and I don' really see that happening. The other thing is I have higher hopes for Nick and Kemp that 0.9 WAR combined. I think they could both be 1 WAR players each. So that would push an expected win total to 79. I would say the Braves probably project something similar internally.

Along with better production from 1b/2b/SS.

 

[thewupk]

Along with better production from 1b/2b/SS.

1B is probably low on their projections. Hard to really fault their projections for Swanson and whatever happens at 2nd. Swanson did have a 380 BABIP to go with an inflated BB% due to hitting 8th.

 

[UNCBlue012]

This is the point. All of these guys are placeholders awaiting a young guy to show he is good enough to move them for. Optimistically, they are all traded because some combination of Newcomb, Sims, Wisler, Blair, etc. push them aside. Even if that doesn't happen and they pitch for us all year, the next wave is one year closer to being here.

I really can't fault this strategy.

Absolutely. We're in a really opportune position right now. We have so many valuable assets that we have a plethora of options. We all have our opinions about what should happen, but Coppy will ultimately do what he feels is best.

 

[thethe]

1B is probably low on their projections. Hard to really fault their projections for Swanson and whatever happens at 2nd. Swanson did have a 380 BABIP to go with an inflated BB% due to hitting 8th.

I could easily see Swanson as a 3-4 win player next year. I don't think that's homerism at all.

Second base takes a but more of Braves goggles for sure.

 

[Hawk]

No one's ever made Garcia out to be an "Ace" - that said, he was brought in for not only spare parts, but the best one of them is someone you admit has swingman/long-reliever written all over him (that we got for 2 months of KJ) at best.

When healthy, Garcia's posted strong numbers. At what point do you see Gant with a 3.57 ERA with a 3.56 FIP??? The money's obviously not an issue, and the brass has stated since day one that they intended to put a solid product on the field when they opened the new park. As has been mentioned earlier, this deal allows them to do so without spending much (if any) prospect capital.

How many people were lining up for ANY of the prospects that have been dealt this week - honestly?

I don't entirely disagree with your assessment. It's just that, in my view, Garcia isn't the kind of piece this team particularly needed. His addition makes much more sense if the Braves acquire a guy like Sale/Archer at the top of the rotation and/or bring in some variety of offensive firepower - but analyzing the move in the context of where the team stands today it seems fairly lateral.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

There is no way you get Phillips or Lara just to take on Garza

You may be right and in that case the Braves don't want Garza. BUT, IF the Brewers want to move Garza (which they do) then an offer of Gant, Ellis and Dykstra for Garza and Phillips isn't out of the realm of possibility (especially since Phillips' star has dimmed a bit and he's now considered the 4th best OF prospect in their system. Lara has more talent in all likelihood but is much further away.

Think of it this way: would anyone trade Garcia straight up for Garza? They both make about the same money and are signed for one more year. Garza is a righty and Garcia a lefty so advantage Garcia. Garcia is younger, also advantage Garcia. Garcia isn't considered to be a headcase, also advantage Garcia. Both have had injury history, with Garcia probably a bit more significant, yet Garza is older, so we will call that a push. So, I would say that on a head to head basis, Garcia is significantly more valuable than Garza.

So, you take the offer that the Braves sent to the Cards for Garcia and add in the rebuilding nature of the Brewers and their desire to be rid of Garza and I think asking for Phillips or Lara would be justified and not out of the realm of what should be expected.

Obviously, Milwaukee could just decide to hold their nose and live with Garza for one more year. OR they could decide to cut him and write off the $12M (but, if they were going to do that I think they would have already done it).

 

[clvclv]

A personal note on my opinion of the Braves current win total projection. Fangraphs/Steamer currently have them at 76 wins after getting Garcia. My only real issue is they have Ender/Nick/Kemp combining for 2.9 WAR. I think Ender beats that by himself. He's been at 3.3 and 3.6 the last two years. They expect his defense to take a drop and I don' really see that happening. The other thing is I have higher hopes for Nick and Kemp that 0.9 WAR combined. I think they could both be 1 WAR players each. So that would push an expected win total to 79. I would say the Braves probably project something similar internally.

Which is "competitive" - and about where they need to be.

An interesting note for those who are so against trading for an "Ace". Bowman was on XM earlier this morning talking about the Garcia deal, and I was a little surprised by his comment that he's hearing that payroll could be pushed into the $150 million range relatively soon. Take that for what it's worth, but that could at least support the theory that they're willing to spend soon to surround the core - Julio, Freeman, Swanson, Albies, etc. with pieces needed to contend. Committed salaries for 2018 stand at ~$79,750,000 as of today. If you replace Colon and Garcia from within at the minimum, that's still a boatload of money available - especially if you hang onto Swanson.

Obviously nobody KNOWS with any certainty if the number Bowman floated is in the ballpark or not, but it does begin to line up with the brass' statements that they expect to be in the Top 10 range (The Gnats were 10th last season at $163+ million). One of the reasons for the "optimism" from some is that free-agents that fit our long-term holes are available next winter - Lucroy and Moustakas to name a couple. If you give Lucroy the Mac contract without the option ($17 million per) and give Moustakas four years at the same number you're then still only sitting at ~$113,750,000.

CF- Inciarte, SS- Swanson, 1B- Freeman, LF- Kemp, 3B- Moustakas, C- Lucroy, RF- Markakis, 2B- TBD

Rotation - Julio, Folty, internal option, internal option, ???

The point is that the Braves are at least finally in a position to add one of those huge contracts - in the unlikely event they ever do. Assuming they did trade for a Sale or Archer type, there is plenty of money available to extend them at market value. Does that make it likely? Of course not. However, dismissing the possibility out of hand is just as short-sighted as expecting Kemp to become an MVP candidate again or expecting Markakis to hit 20 bombs.

 

[Southcack77]

I don't entirely disagree with your assessment. It's just that, in my view, Garcia isn't the kind of piece this team particularly needed. His addition makes much more sense if the Braves acquire a guy like Sale/Archer at the top of the rotation and/or bring in some variety of offensive firepower - but analyzing the move in the context of where the team stands today it seems fairly lateral.

I am with you that the braces should remain committed to a rebuild, but it's not clear to me how parting with pieces that the braces clearly don't seem to believe are part of their future demonstrates isn't doing that.

I believe the braves rebuild is more likely to be advanced by having the rights to Jaime Garcia in 2017 than it would be by having Ellis and Grant in 2020.

Nothing they've done has caused them to part with any major prospect or commit to any long term deal.

They are past the point in the rebuild, if they were ever there, where bottoming out is an intended strategy.

I look at this no differently than any of their other acquisitions of short term veteran assets over the last two years.

If you accept that they aren't irrational and probably ahree with everyone else that they aren't major contenders in 2017 then maybe you might feel better.

If they do go out and trade for multiple commodities at great prospect cost let's revisit it, but also look to see if the move might help long term and short term. So maybe an archer acquisition would be about more than just 2017 for example.

I just don't see where this front office has done much to suggest it's feeling pressure to pull an Arizona or San Diego. That's really not what they've been doing at all.

So far.

 

[jimsnores]

Maybe we define competive differently. We won't touch the Nats and Mets but I think we wI'll have a chance at the second wild card come September first. Meaning that we will be within 5 games of that spot.

That's not unreasonable, and if you are right, I think most fans will consider that acceptable. Naturally, we/they'll hope for more, but that's a lot better than excitement being limited to the chase for the number one overall draft pick.

 

[Enscheff]

Right now, fangraphs has the Braves at 25.6 WAR. I think that is a bit low, particularly on offense with Freeman and Inciarte. That suggests 74 wins. I think maybe 76-78. Say adding Sale is 5 so you are pushing 80 without accounting for which players you give up. If it is Inciarte and Folty, that's roughly 4 being subtracted and maybe 1-1.5 being added back with additional playing time for Mallex.

They also project Colon/Dickey/Garcia to produce 6+ WAR. Those are 2 insanely old pitchers, and one held together with duct tape. I am going to go out on a limb and predict that trio produces closer to 4 WAR when one of them blows up.

This is a 75 win team. Adding Sale would cost them WAR from other positions and leave them at about 75 wins.

 

[clvclv]

I don't entirely disagree with your assessment. It's just that, in my view, Garcia isn't the kind of piece this team particularly needed. His addition makes much more sense if the Braves acquire a guy like Sale/Archer at the top of the rotation and/or bring in some variety of offensive firepower - but analyzing the move in the context of where the team stands today it seems fairly lateral.

And the discussion so far today has been that they're still in on Sale - whether we all agree how smart that is. Of course there have been reports that the asking price is the "Miller deal plus two" which would signal to me that Chicago isn't serious about moving him anyway. I think they still think Dombrowski will give in and trade Moncada and/or Benintendi plus for him. Not saying I blame them, but everything I've heard thus far is that even if Dombrowski "folds", John Henry isn't likely to sign off on the deal.

 

[dak]

They also project Colon/Dickey/Garcia to produce 6+ WAR. Those are 2 insanely old pitchers, and one held together with duct tape. I am going to go out on a limb and predict that trio produces closer to 4 WAR when one of them blows up.

Combined average fWAR for those 3 pitchers over last 2 years: 6.3
Combined average fWAR for those 3 pitchers over last 3 years: 5.8

I think it's fair to factor in regression, but a projection of 4 is pretty harsh.