Kemp

[auyushu]

Let's say Kemp has a resurgent year. Will the ones making fun say they were wrong? I mean I recall getting mocked a couple years ago for suggesting Markakis would be better with a fill year of working out. That's exactly what happened

Exactly what happened? Markakis was worse offensively in 2016 than he was in 2015, the only thing he improved on was hitting homers.

And the only thing people dog on Kemp for is the defense, I don't know anyone on here that doubted his ability to be a plus offensively. But even if he posted a 130+ wRC+ he'll a player in the 1-1.5 WAR range due to his horrible defense, so that will be nothing to crow about. He is what he is, a guy that will help the offense a fair bit but not be a great help overall to the team in wins, but it was still a solid move to make since it will help with getting casual fans into the seats and didn't hurt the future.

 

[thethe]

More balls found holes last year for Markakis. He hit the ball on average harder in 2016 but just more at people. He was a better offensive player last year.

I'll just disagree if Kemp war ends up being that. Hid value to the team would greatly exceed that.

 

[Southcack77]

More balls found holes last year for Markakis. He hit the ball on average harder in 2016 but just more at people. He was a better offensive player last year.

I'll just disagree if Kemp war ends up being that. Hid value to the team would greatly exceed that.

BABIP

2015 .338
2016 .300

HR
2015 3
2016 13

 

[Enscheff]

He's never going to be a good defensive player. It's about not being a negative and being a 130 wrc+ player.

Kemp had been a negative in the field every single season except 2008 when he was 23. So again, how is losing 20 lbs going to change that?

He always has, and always will be, a negative in the field. That's why he will only produce 0-1 wins. If he is merely bad, he will be worth 1 win. If he is as awful as he has been during his worst seasons he will be worth 0 wins...or less.

Personally, I think he will fall in the range of -10 to -15 runs and be worth closer to 1 win overall.

 

[thethe]

BABIP

2015 .338
2016 .300

HR
2015 3
2016 13

Exit velocity:

2016 91.4
2015 89.1

By so many important measures Markakis was a better hitter last year. Just like many expected another year out from his surgery.

 

[thethe]

Kemp had been a negative in the field every single season except 2008 when he was 23. So again, how is losing 20 lbs going to change that?

He always has, and always will be, a negative in the field. That's why he will only produce 0-1 wins. If he is merely bad, he will be worth 1 win. If he is as awful as he has been during his worst seasons he will be worth 0 wins...or less.

Personally, I think he will fall in the range of -10 to -15 runs and be worth closer to 1 win overall.

You are looking at it from a WAR standpoint which I think many concede that it overvalues defensive contributions(particularly in less important defensive positions). If Kemp is merely below average fielding (no way to accurately measure this despite what you may think) and continues to mash on offense the Braves are going to be in great shape for the next three years.

He has to commit to getting in better shape and I hope he will do that but Kemp still has a lot of good baseball left in him.

 

[Southcack77]

Exit velocity:

2016 91.4
2015 89.1

By so many important measures Markakis was a better hitter last year. Just like many expected another year out from his surgery.

Perhaps, but more balls did not find holes in 2016 than did in 2015.

 

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

BABIP

2015 .338

2016 .300

HR

2015 3

2016 13

Supporting his case? Might as well add hard hit numbers:

Soft/Med/Hard

2015 16.4/57.9/25.7

2016 14.0/53.1/32.9

 

[thethe]

Perhaps, but more balls did not find holes in 2016 than did in 2015.

I just wrote that statement poorly. I meant to say more balls found holes in 2015 which made his 2016 more impressive in comparison.

 

[Southcack77]

Supporting his case? Might as well add hard hit numbers:

Soft/Med/Hard
2015 16.4/57.9/25.7
2016 14.0/53.1/32.9

I'm just saying Markakis was less fortunate with balls in play in 2016 than he was in 2015. If that is what he said, then I agree.

I really don't take a position on whether Markakis was better in 2016 or 2015. I certainly concede the advanced stats like 2015 better.

2016 --His strike outs were up a bit, the walks were about the same, he showed more power, and got less luck with balls in play.

I kind of think the seasons were similar and I think his May really drags things down. But all months count.

 

[Southcack77]

I just wrote that statement poorly. I meant to say more balls found holes in 2015 which made his 2016 more impressive in comparison.

Ah. Yeah, we agree. I think I had poor reading comprehension more than anything else.

 

[auyushu]

By so many important measures Markakis was a better hitter last year. Just like many expected another year out from his surgery.

Important measures like exit velocity? You are doing some serious reaching now. If a guy hits for for a much higher average, he is going to have a higher BABIP, hard to have a BABIP of .300 when you are hitting .296.

The fact of the matter is he had a better OPS, wRC+, and wOBA in 2015 than 2016, which is actual performance on the field. Markakis is by no means worthless, he's a solidly average OF, but trying to crow about a player who put up worse numbers from both a WAR and offensive stat than the year before standpoint is just silly. He put more balls over the fence for sure, but that's about it. And he had an increased strikeout rate to go along with it.

 

[thethe]

Important measures like exit velocity? You are doing some serious reaching now. If a guy hits for for a much higher average, he is going to have a higher BABIP, hard to have a BABIP of .300 when you are hitting .296.

The fact of the matter is he had a better OPS, wRC+, and wOBA in 2015 than 2016, which is actual performance on the field. Markakis is by no means worthless, he's a solidly average OF, but trying to crow about a player who put up worse numbers from both a WAR and offensive stat than the year before standpoint is just silly. He put more balls over the fence for sure, but that's about it. And he had an increased strikeout rate to go along with it.

Yes, hitting the ball harder to me is a really important indicator. It gives us more insight as to what he is going to do in 2017 then how many balls found a hole with weak contact in 2015.

 

[Southcack77]

Important measures like exit velocity? You are doing some serious reaching now. If a guy hits for for a much higher average, he is going to have a higher BABIP, hard to have a BABIP of .300 when you are hitting .296.

The fact of the matter is he had a better OPS, wRC+, and wOBA in 2015 than 2016, which is actual performance on the field. Markakis is by no means worthless, he's a solidly average OF, but trying to crow about a player who put up worse numbers from both a WAR and offensive stat than the year before standpoint is just silly. He put more balls over the fence for sure, but that's about it. And he had an increased strikeout rate to go along with it.

Like said before, I don't really have a position. I think obviously May dragged down Markakis's numbers, but they count.

But I don't really understand your first paragraph. This might be a dumbish question, but why is BABIP is a function of BA rather than BA being a function of BABIP?

to me, your BA is going to be higher if your BABIP is higher. Markakis walked at the same rate. he had a lower average in 2016 based on striking out a tad more and having less luck with balls in play.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

The real question is not was Markakis better in 2016 than 2015. It's was Markakis good in the sense that he made a real difference to the team being competitive and good. To me, the answer to that is really...no. He doesn't hurt the team, but he's not much help, even hitting 13 HR instead of 3.

I would also say that Kemp faces the same question. And I would say that anecdotal evidence says he WAS a difference maker with his bat, since his arrival sparked a change in the offense, even if it was more psychological than anything else.

Are either corner OF that you want on a good team? No. No, they are not. But, they are what we have, so we take the turd, dry it out and call it an ash tray.

 

[Southcack77]

The real question is not was Markakis better in 2016 than 2015. It's was Markakis good in the sense that he made a real difference to the team being competitive and good. To me, the answer to that is really...no. He doesn't hurt the team, but he's not much help, even hitting 13 HR instead of 3.

I would also say that Kemp faces the same question. And I would say that anecdotal evidence says he WAS a difference maker with his bat, since his arrival sparked a change in the offense, even if it was more psychological than anything else.

Are either corner OF that you want on a good team? No. No, they are not. But, they are what we have, so we take the turd, dry it out and call it an ash tray.

Still struggling to understand the dislike for Markakis and his entirely reasonable contract. He was better than average for all but one month of the season. That certainly helps the team to win a lot more than replacing him with someone who is below average, which is the likely alternative.

He's reasonably paid. He's not blocked anyone. there is no one to bring up in his place yet.

If they wanted to they could probably move him pretty easily, which is not the case with Kemp.

 

[Knucksie]

Still struggling to understand the dislike for Markakis and his entirely reasonable contract. He was better than average for all but one month of the season. That certainly helps the team to win a lot more than replacing him with someone who is below average, which is the likely alternative.

He's reasonably paid. He's not blocked anyone. there is no one to bring up in his place yet.

If they wanted to they could probably move him pretty easily, which is not the case with Kemp.

This is all true, but the prospect of eventually having Inciarte and Mallex in the OF and at the top of the batting order kind of intrigues me.

 

[Enscheff]

Still struggling to understand the dislike for Markakis and his entirely reasonable contract.

This right here is why it's so hard to objectively discuss players with fans. Just because someone says Markakis is not a good enough player to be a cornerstone of a playoff team does not mean they dislike him.

Fact of the matter is that Markakis is projected by all credible models to be an average or below OFer being paid like an average or below player. That's fine, but the Braves also have a below average player in the other OF corner, and teams don't typically compete with 2 below average OFers in the corners.

Asserting the Braves OF is not good enough to contend doesn't mean the Markakis contract is bad, or that we hate the guy. It simply means the Braves need to upgrade the OF before they can realistically compete for a playoff spot.

 

[Southcack77]

This right here is why it's so hard to objectively discuss players with fans. Just because someone says Markakis is not a good enough player to be a cornerstone of a playoff team does not mean they dislike him.

Fact of the matter is that Markakis is projected by all credible models to be an average or below OFer being paid like an average or below player. That's fine, but the Braves also have a below average player in the other OF corner, and teams don't typically compete with 2 below average OFers in the corners.

Asserting the Braves OF is not good enough to contend doesn't mean the Markakis contract is bad, or that we hate the guy. It simply means the Braves need to upgrade the OF before they can realistically compete for a playoff spot.

Jesus, who said markakis was the "cornerstone" of a playoff team? Literally no one ever that I recall.

Who even said the braves should be a playoff team with markakis?

You completely missed the point as does anyone else who bemoans the fact the braves have a player who entirely earns the salary he is being paid.

Bitching about the solid player who is not overpaid rather than the ones who are or the players who aren't solid....

The braves have to upgrade their terrible rotation, second base, third base, and their bullpen before they have to worry about their outfield.

Or maybe go spend 9 million on Jason Castro, because that's a good idea.

 

[auyushu]

But I don't really understand your first paragraph. This might be a dumbish question, but why is BABIP is a function of BA rather than BA being a function of BABIP?

to me, your BA is going to be higher if your BABIP is higher.

I was just saying they kinda go hand in hand. His split between his BABIP and batting average was about the same in 2015 as it was in 2016, so not much changed there. If someone is hitting .300ish they are going to have a high BABIP, it's kinda unavoidable is basically what I meant. Acting like someone who who has a .300ish BABIP has been super unlucky is just a bit weird.