striker42
Well-known member
I posted a similar thread last year making predictions of breakout and bust candidates in our minors and ended up fairly wrong. IIRC, I picked Braxton Davidson as likely to breakout. But I'll try again this year. Here are my picks for the most likely minor leaguers to break out and the most likely to bust.
Breakout:
1- Sean Newcomb- Can you pick a guy who K'd more than a batter an inning last year with a FIP of 3.19 a breakout candidate? I am. I'm picking Newcomb to just explode this year. Newcomb really has only one flaw in his entire game, he walks a few too many. Everything else is great. He's got elite stuff, a starter's build, he's left handed, he racks up the Ks and gives up almost no HRs. All he has to do is decrease his walk rate and he's got everything to be a top 5 prospect in the game. I think he does that. From everything I've seen his walk problems are the result of not repeating his mechanics well. Considering he's a cold weather product that didn't have a ton of experience when drafted, that's not a surprise. Also, he doesn't have to drop his BB rate a ton to be successful. Even with giving up too many walks his FIP was 3.19. The fact that he's a strikeout pitcher that doesn't give up many HRs limits the damage of the BBs. So a small improvement in walks should be all it will take.
2- Lucas Sims- This is my biggest reach. I'm going out on a limb here and saying this is the year Sims breaks out, reaches the majors, and sticks. However, I'm predicting he wont do it as a starter. I'm saying this is the year the Braves give up on him as a starting prospect due to his control issues and move him to the pen. Out of the pen, his fastball will play up and will pair with his curve to create a deadly combo. Interestingly, Sims is also one of the bigger bust candidates this year as well after his disastrous promotion to AAA last year.
3- Ronald Acuna- This is an easy one. Last year would have probably been his breakout year if he hadn't gotten hurt. Acuna can do it all and at a premium position. I expect he'll start the year in low A and finish it in high A but I wouldn't count an end of the season taste of Mississippi out of the question.
Honorable Mentions- Kolby Allard and Touki Toussaint- I could easily see both of these guys breakout out and establishing themselves as top 25 prospects in the game. However, the fact the Braves may be a bit protective of Allard and the possibility that Touki's rawness will lead to struggles adjusting to each level as he moves up drops them a bit in breakout potential.
Bust:
1- Luiz Gohara- He has a big fastball and put up some nice numbers last year but there are control issues there. He'll probably get challenged by the Braves this year and I really have my doubts as to how he'll respond. It wouldn't surprise me to see him struggle. While 2017 could be a bust year for Gohara, it might be salvaged by a move to the pen where he probably fits better long term.
2- Ian Anderson- "Bust" might be too strong a word. I'm thinking "disappointing" might be a better word for Anderson's 2017. As the number 3 pick you're hoping Anderson will come out next year and dominate Rome but something, and I can't put my finger on what it is, makes me think he'll struggle. I don't think he's going to put up an ERA over 6 or anything like that but I can easily see his season being underwhelming. An ERA around 4.00 with fairly pedestrian K numbers and more hits than are ideal sounds about right.
3- Travis Demeritte- You hear a lot of excited talk about Demeritte but I can easily see him falling flat on his face without some pretty big steps forward. He's got huge power and a good BB rate but that K rate is AWFUL. It's so difficult to be successful when you're not putting your bat on the ball in a third of your PAs. The fact that he's having these problems in A ball makes me even more nervous. He's going to go to AA this year and that's one of the hardest jumps in baseball. That could be difficult for Demerittte. That being said, his AFL performance did give cause for hope. His K rate dropped and his BA held steady in spite of a big drop in BABIP. So hopefully that was real improvement.
I have no doubt I'm going to be wrong on several of these picks, hopefully the busts.
Breakout:
1- Sean Newcomb- Can you pick a guy who K'd more than a batter an inning last year with a FIP of 3.19 a breakout candidate? I am. I'm picking Newcomb to just explode this year. Newcomb really has only one flaw in his entire game, he walks a few too many. Everything else is great. He's got elite stuff, a starter's build, he's left handed, he racks up the Ks and gives up almost no HRs. All he has to do is decrease his walk rate and he's got everything to be a top 5 prospect in the game. I think he does that. From everything I've seen his walk problems are the result of not repeating his mechanics well. Considering he's a cold weather product that didn't have a ton of experience when drafted, that's not a surprise. Also, he doesn't have to drop his BB rate a ton to be successful. Even with giving up too many walks his FIP was 3.19. The fact that he's a strikeout pitcher that doesn't give up many HRs limits the damage of the BBs. So a small improvement in walks should be all it will take.
2- Lucas Sims- This is my biggest reach. I'm going out on a limb here and saying this is the year Sims breaks out, reaches the majors, and sticks. However, I'm predicting he wont do it as a starter. I'm saying this is the year the Braves give up on him as a starting prospect due to his control issues and move him to the pen. Out of the pen, his fastball will play up and will pair with his curve to create a deadly combo. Interestingly, Sims is also one of the bigger bust candidates this year as well after his disastrous promotion to AAA last year.
3- Ronald Acuna- This is an easy one. Last year would have probably been his breakout year if he hadn't gotten hurt. Acuna can do it all and at a premium position. I expect he'll start the year in low A and finish it in high A but I wouldn't count an end of the season taste of Mississippi out of the question.
Honorable Mentions- Kolby Allard and Touki Toussaint- I could easily see both of these guys breakout out and establishing themselves as top 25 prospects in the game. However, the fact the Braves may be a bit protective of Allard and the possibility that Touki's rawness will lead to struggles adjusting to each level as he moves up drops them a bit in breakout potential.
Bust:
1- Luiz Gohara- He has a big fastball and put up some nice numbers last year but there are control issues there. He'll probably get challenged by the Braves this year and I really have my doubts as to how he'll respond. It wouldn't surprise me to see him struggle. While 2017 could be a bust year for Gohara, it might be salvaged by a move to the pen where he probably fits better long term.
2- Ian Anderson- "Bust" might be too strong a word. I'm thinking "disappointing" might be a better word for Anderson's 2017. As the number 3 pick you're hoping Anderson will come out next year and dominate Rome but something, and I can't put my finger on what it is, makes me think he'll struggle. I don't think he's going to put up an ERA over 6 or anything like that but I can easily see his season being underwhelming. An ERA around 4.00 with fairly pedestrian K numbers and more hits than are ideal sounds about right.
3- Travis Demeritte- You hear a lot of excited talk about Demeritte but I can easily see him falling flat on his face without some pretty big steps forward. He's got huge power and a good BB rate but that K rate is AWFUL. It's so difficult to be successful when you're not putting your bat on the ball in a third of your PAs. The fact that he's having these problems in A ball makes me even more nervous. He's going to go to AA this year and that's one of the hardest jumps in baseball. That could be difficult for Demerittte. That being said, his AFL performance did give cause for hope. His K rate dropped and his BA held steady in spite of a big drop in BABIP. So hopefully that was real improvement.
I have no doubt I'm going to be wrong on several of these picks, hopefully the busts.
