Great new charts illustrating OF defense

[thewupk]

But against and average defender (using Enscheff's 82 figure), Heyward is 27 hits better, not 54 (Kemp IS awful, no question).

As to the value of defense in War, to rate oWar and dWar as equal, then you are saying that an OF with a 3 dWar and a -1.7 oWar would have a monetary value of somewhere along the lines of $7M x (~1.3) = $9.1M and I can't buy that. I think there are many "defensive whizzes" in the minors that never sniff the ML because they can't hit a lick and if they do get to the ML they never play enough to have a 3 dWar impact. Heyward is an anomaly having tantalized with enough offense to get a big contract on faith which requires the Cubs to run him out there every day instead of using him as a defensive replacement.

First we need to understand that you can't add oWAR and dWAR together to get a players WAR. They usually add the position adjustment and playing time bonus to both of those stats if you are getting them from bRef.

With that being said Fredy Galvis is an interesting player.

He was -1.8 WAR offensively and +2.2 WAR defensively in 2016. Add in the playing time bonus and he was a 2.4 fWAR player. He just signed a 4.4 million contract in his 2nd year of arbitration. Year 2 generally represents 40% of a market value contract. So his FA value is essentially 11 million.

And just because oWAR = dWAR on the diamond doesn't mean it's equal on the open market. It's clear that it's not. Just look at Ender's recent contract. Even Heyward's contract is someone essentially paying for his offensive history and not his defense. Defensive first players is the new OBP. It's a market inefficiency.

 

[blueagleace1]

Great post Enscheff, very informative chart! Did you happen to look at Ender's?

 

[thewupk]

Great post Enscheff, very informative chart! Did you happen to look at Ender's?

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Just saw these charts on Baseball Savant. I'll post links to the images of base hits allowed to drop by Heyward vs Kemp.

Heyward:

Kemp:

You can easily see just how many hits Kemp allowed to fall in the Easy, Routine, and Tough ranges compared to an elite defender like Heyward. These charts do a wonderful job of illustrating how Kemp costs a team 20+ runs on defense when he lets all those fly balls drop. Many of those become extra-base hits and cause considerable damage.

here is OP to go along with TheWupk ender post.

 

[blueagleace1]

I'm not trying to contradict or say Kemp is a good defender or anything along those lines but I do think this shows how bad his hips really are because at one point (pretty recently) Kemp was a Gold Glove award winner (actually twice I think) in centerfield for quite some time.

 

[thewupk]

I'm not trying to contradict or say Kemp is a good defender or anything along those lines but I do think this shows how bad his hips really are because at one point (pretty recently) Kemp was a Gold Glove award winner (actually twice I think) in centerfield for quite some time.

To be fair he won it the same way Nate McClouth won his.

 

[blueagleace1]

To be fair he won it the same way Nate McClouth won his.

Right, but no matter how he won it, it shows he was at one point a pretty good defender and how bad hips can really effect his defensive ability.

 

[nsacpi]

But against and average defender (using Enscheff's 82 figure), Heyward is 27 hits better, not 54 (Kemp IS awful, no question).

As to the value of defense in War, to rate oWar and dWar as equal, then you are saying that an OF with a 3 dWar and a -1.7 oWar would have a monetary value of somewhere along the lines of $7M x (~1.3) = $9.1M and I can't buy that. I think there are many "defensive whizzes" in the minors that never sniff the ML because they can't hit a lick and if they do get to the ML they never play enough to have a 3 dWar impact. Heyward is an anomaly having tantalized with enough offense to get a big contract on faith which requires the Cubs to run him out there every day instead of using him as a defensive replacement.

Run prevention and run creation are of equal importance. But run prevention is a product of pitching and defense. From the evident role of pitching in run prevention it is obvious that defensive WAR's overall importance is significantly less than the overall importance of offensive WAR.

But...but...but....it is possible that the dispersion of defensive value across players is much larger than the dispersion of offensive value. It could be that compared to league average that a great defensive player is equivalent to a .400 hitter compared to a .250 hitter. So it is theoretically possible (and I'm not taking a position on this) that the defensive WAR of a great defensive player is greater than the offensive WAR of a great offensive player even though in the overall scheme of things overall defensive WAR has to be less than overall offensive WAR.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

I've certainly been one of the most vocal about the relative impact of defense and my sense that it is overvalued. I'll have to look at this stuff and see if it convinces me.

Off the top, we're comparing raw data for a right fielder and a partial left fielder. Did they have the same amount of time, chances? I know Kemp played pretty close to a full slate. Secondly, as others have said, you're comparing Kemp to the best corner OF in the game. What's normal and how do they decide that? And why are these numbers so incredibly different from inside edge, which more or less attempts to classify the exact same thing?

 

[nsacpi]

Based on the Kemp and Heyward data, I would imagine an average defender with 0 runs produced defensively would have only allowed ~82 hits given the same number of chances. You can look it up easily enough yourself though.

According to Smoot, Kemp allowed 109 hits, while Heyward allowed 55 hits. That difference of 54 hits is almost exactly the difference in their defensive run values. Assuming each missed ball to the OF costs a team ~1 run (which seems reasonable), it passes the sniff test.

So Heyward's defense relative to an average outfielder is 27 hits. Assuming most are doubles close to 50 bases.

The value of 54 hits and 100 bases for a hitter receiving a full-season's worth of at bats is roughly 45 points on his OBP, and 75 points on his slugging percentage. Or about 120 points to his OPS. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Or if we want to stick to a Heyward-Kemp comparison, Kemp would need an OPS about 240 points higher than Heyward to make up the defensive difference.

 

[smootness]

Run prevention and run creation are of equal importance. But run prevention is a product of pitching and defense. From the evident role of pitching in run prevention it is obvious that defensive WAR's overall importance is significantly less than the overall importance of offensive WAR.

But...but...but....it is possible that the dispersion of defensive value across players is much larger than the dispersion of offensive value. It could be that compared to league average that a great defensive player is equivalent to a .400 hitter compared to a .250 hitter. So it is theoretically possible (and I'm not taking a position on this) that the defensive WAR of a great defensive player is greater than the offensive WAR of a great offensive player even though in the overall scheme of things overall defensive WAR has to be less than overall offensive WAR.

The defensive WAR of the top defensive players is generally not all that close to the offensive WAR of the top offensive players.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

So Heyward's defense relative to an average outfielder is 27 hits. Assuming most are doubles close to 50 bases.

The value of 54 hits and 100 bases for a hitter receiving a full-season's worth of at bats is roughly 45 points on his OBP, and 75 points on his slugging percentage. Or about 120 points to his OPS. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Or if we want to stick to a Heyward-Kemp comparison, Kemp would need an OPS about 240 points higher than Heyward to make up the defensive difference.

So,correct me if I'm wrong, but you're saying that in 2016 Kemp would have equal value to Heyward (assuming Heyward is static to actual) if he had an OPS of .631+.240=.871 even taking into consideration Kemp's awful defense and Heyward's superior defense? And, if Heyward had provided the same offense in 2016 that he did in STL in 2015 (.797 OPS) while having the same defensive value then Kemp would need to hit .797+.240=1.037 OPS to be equal in value?

If that could be quantified on a broad basis (not just Kemp/Heyward) then I think that would be a very interesting way of establishing relative value.

Kemp had a combined OPS in 2016 of .803 (.855 in Atlanta)

Kemp made $21.75M (paid by a number of teams)
Heyward made $21.67M

I am certainly NOT arguing that Kemp is a better player than Heyward (he's not by a long shot). However, there are scenarios where he could be a better value.

Let's say Kemp and Heyward mirror their 2016 numbers in 2017. Kemp again makes $21.75M but Heyward makes $28.2M, the .068 OPS difference (.871-.803) probably still justifies the $6.5M payroll difference, but the value between the two is much closer. And for the Braves, on the hook for $15M for Kemp, the relative value of Kemp could be more valuable than if they had Heyward.

 

[thewupk]

I've certainly been one of the most vocal about the relative impact of defense and my sense that it is overvalued. I'll have to look at this stuff and see if it convinces me.

Off the top, we're comparing raw data for a right fielder and a partial left fielder. Did they have the same amount of time, chances? I know Kemp played pretty close to a full slate. Secondly, as others have said, you're comparing Kemp to the best corner OF in the game. What's normal and how do they decide that? And why are these numbers so incredibly different from inside edge, which more or less attempts to classify the exact same thing?

This is directly from MLB's statcast. People have talked about more public statcast data. This is it. It's in every ball park and this is what we will need to take defensive metrics to the next level. You can go to the players page on baseball savant and they have a graph for plays made as well which are ranked in the same way. And someone mentioned earlier that there was a difference of like 10 attempts between the two players. With that being said it determines the difficulty by the % that a play is made across all MLB ofers.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_rates

It's an interactive map to show all types of plays for an OF. Using time in area measured with the distance the player was from it. For example a ball that is in the air for 4 seconds and is 60 feet from a defender is caught 57% of the time. So essentially that play is considered average or routine in the graphs above.

 

[thewupk]

So Heyward's defense relative to an average outfielder is 27 hits. Assuming most are doubles close to 50 bases.

The value of 54 hits and 100 bases for a hitter receiving a full-season's worth of at bats is roughly 45 points on his OBP, and 75 points on his slugging percentage. Or about 120 points to his OPS. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Or if we want to stick to a Heyward-Kemp comparison, Kemp would need an OPS about 240 points higher than Heyward to make up the defensive difference.

That's a decent correlation for some folks. I think the 50 bases may be a little too much. For example a double was worth 1.242 runs in 2016. If Heyward saved 25 of them then he would of been a +30 defender. He actually came out to +18 DRS and +20 UZR. So it's more likely that it was somewhere around 16 doubles or 32 bases. Somewhere in that ballpark. But still the point remains. If Heyward is saving 27 more hits than the average corner outfielder then that is a tremendous amount. I've said this for awhile but if Heyward or anyone else were to save 5 doubles a month then what's really the big deal? The same big deal if a hitter gets 5 extra doubles a month. Those things add up over a full season and the difference is pretty evident.

 

[thewupk]

The defensive WAR of the top defensive players is generally not all that close to the offensive WAR of the top offensive players.

Yeah there is generally a 3X multiplier difference. Which is why most suggest 3 years of defensive data is worth 1 year of offensive data as far as sample sizes go. It's why elite hitters with average defense will always be more valuable than average hitters with elite defense. That's just a given.

 

[nsacpi]

So,correct me if I'm wrong, but you're saying that in 2016 Kemp would have equal value to Heyward (assuming Heyward is static to actual) if he had an OPS of .631+.240=.871 even taking into consideration Kemp's awful defense and Heyward's superior defense? And, if Heyward had provided the same offense in 2016 that he did in STL in 2015 (.797 OPS) while having the same defensive value then Kemp would need to hit .797+.240=1.037 OPS to be equal in value?

If that could be quantified on a broad basis (not just Kemp/Heyward) then I think that would be a very interesting way of establishing relative value.

Kemp had a combined OPS in 2016 of .803 (.855 in Atlanta)

Kemp made $21.75M (paid by a number of teams)
Heyward made $21.67M

I am certainly NOT arguing that Kemp is a better player than Heyward (he's not by a long shot). However, there are scenarios where he could be a better value.

Let's say Kemp and Heyward mirror their 2016 numbers in 2017. Kemp again makes $21.75M but Heyward makes $28.2M, the .068 OPS difference (.871-.803) probably still justifies the $6.5M payroll difference, but the value between the two is much closer. And for the Braves, on the hook for $15M for Kemp, the relative value of Kemp could be more valuable than if they had Heyward.

Yes. That's the point I was making.

 

[nsacpi]

It should be noted that the graphs being discussed here only capture the part of an outfielder's defensive value having to do with range. Heyward and Inciarte both have very good arms which add to their defensive value.

And there are more subtle considerations in favor of strong defenders that may elude quantification for a while. For example, a strong defender saves wear-and-tear on the pitching staff by increasing the number of outs per pitch. More obviously, a strong outfielder allows some adjustments to positioning that minimizes the negative effects of a weak outfielder.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

This is directly from MLB's statcast. People have talked about more public statcast data. This is it. It's in every ball park and this is what we will need to take defensive metrics to the next level. You can go to the players page on baseball savant and they have a graph for plays made as well which are ranked in the same way. And someone mentioned earlier that there was a difference of like 10 attempts between the two players. With that being said it determines the difficulty by the % that a play is made across all MLB ofers.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_rates

It's an interactive map to show all types of plays for an OF. Using time in area measured with the distance the player was from it. For example a ball that is in the air for 4 seconds and is 60 feet from a defender is caught 57% of the time. So essentially that play is considered average or routine in the graphs above.

Thanks for the additional knowledge. Regarding your example, I wouldn't consider a ball caught 57% of the time "routine." 95-something would be routine. I would think the ball you described would be a difficult play if half get there and half don't.

Like I said, I will look at all this when I have a little time. It certainly seems like a better way to address the defense/range question.

One other thought...how would it treat a defender or team that was superior at positioning fielders?

 

[GovClintonTyree]

It should be noted that the graphs being discussed here only capture the part of an outfielder's defensive value having to do with range.

How is the arm rated? (Real question.) And the other question, the one I asked thewupk - how does this measure/reward/not a fielder who is superior at positioning himself? I'm thinking about Cal Ripken on that comment, as it was always said that his range was a little short but because he knew what he was doing, he was always in the right place.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

So no ball feel for a hit within 30 feet of these 3 OF, regardless of hang time. That seems hard to believe.