Great new charts illustrating OF defense

Enscheff said:
I would argue that it does matter. Matt is correct when he says that, eventually, folks will catch on and start running on him. If your team just gave Frenchy a contract in part because he controls base runners well, but that value was only based on his reputation, you just paid for past results instead of future performance. That is a mistake right out of the 1980s.

Statcast data measures his throws directly. With that data it is very easy to determine who is truly good at throwing the ball, and who is succeeding based on reputation.
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This was exactly my point in bringing it up. My interest is mostly on paying for what defense/offense/combination is worth more than anything. And since statistical projection is based on historical events, I think at some point you have to make a human evaluation about whether you believe that those stats are going to improve, remain static or decline.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
This was exactly my point in bringing it up. My interest is mostly on paying for what defense/offense/combination is worth more than anything. And since statistical projection is based on historical events, I think at some point you have to make a human evaluation about whether you believe that those stats are going to improve, remain static or decline.
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Except Statcast is real time and doesn't need human involvement. You could write an algorithm to evaluate the arms of every player after every game. That evaluation could be automatically emailed to you and waiting in your inbox in the morning.

This Statcast data is 100% objective, and it is also real time. Best of both worlds.
 
Enscheff said:
I would argue that it does matter. Matt is correct when he says that, eventually, folks will catch on and start running on him. If your team just gave Frenchy a contract in part because he controls base runners well, but that value was only based on his reputation, you just paid for past results instead of future performance. That is a mistake right out of the 1980s.

Statcast data measures his throws directly. With that data it is very easy to determine who is truly good at throwing the ball, and who is succeeding based on reputation.
Click to expand...

Sure, but as others have said, once your arm goes, your reputation is only going to last so long. If Frenchy's arm is no longer as good as it was, I'm pretty confident that would have already shown up in the number of base runners who take the extra base. If runners still are stopping at the same rate they ever did against him, then I'm still going to consider that as a valuable thing for him, whether he deserves it or not. If people truly haven't yet figured out his arm isn't the same (assuming it isn't), then why do I care if it is or not? They're likely not going to figure it out anytime soon if they haven't yet.

There is always a calculation a team must make as to whether a player's past performance will hold up. I would certainly use Statcast data in negotiations if it shows his arm is not as good as it was, but if runners are still reacting the same way, I'm going to value that accordingly.
 
Enscheff said:
Except Statcast is real time and doesn't need human involvement. You could write an algorithm to evaluate the arms of every player after every game. That evaluation could be automatically emailed to you and waiting in your inbox in the morning.

This Statcast data is 100% objective, and it is also real time. Best of both worlds.
Click to expand...

One step closer to not having to play the games at all. We can just line 'em up and measure ****.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
One step closer to not having to play the games at all. We can just line 'em up and measure ****.
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That's the beauty of sports. Even if you could ever come up with a system that could precisely measure the exact value a certain player has had and determine objectively which team/player is better, you still play the game, and anything can happen.
 
smootness said:
That's the beauty of sports. Even if you could ever come up with a system that could precisely measure the exact value a certain player has had and determine objectively which team/player is better, you still play the game, and anything can happen.
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any given sunday
 
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