Since They're Talking About Him

smootness said:
What? My point is that I'm not sure Chapman really helped them win the championship. Your philosophy seems to be, who cares how smart the decisions made are, and who cares if we give up way too much future value for negligible current value, as long as you win one championship.

Championships are largely chance once you get into the playoffs. Are you telling me that had Cleveland closed that series out, it would have been a terrible move, but since they didn't, it's a move that can't be questioned?
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The textbook definition of "fan".
 
clvclv said:
The textbook definition of "fan".
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Then why are you on here attempting to discuss these things? If you admit that as a fan, you don't care about whether the decisions of the FO are smart or not, and your response to every trade will be, 'Who cares about value? I WANNA WIN!!' that's fine, but you should probably back out of the discussion.

Because, 'Hey, fans are irrational and dumb' is not a defense of a move.
 
Heyward said:
Cubs have Rizzo, Baez, Russell, and Bryant in their infield for years to come, where exactly would Torres play?

While Baez is hit or miss offensively, dude is a vacoom cleaner on defense, he'll win multiple gold gloves in the coming years.
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He would play over Baez. And the fact that he is currently blocked on the infield doesn't mean you might as well give him away for anything. You can believe it's time to trade him and still be smart about it.
 
If you were as close as the Cubs you have to make that move.

Championships matter to the fanbase.
 
thethe said:
If you were as close as the Cubs you have to make that move.

Championships matter to the fanbase.
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Because I've been arguing on side, I've made it seem like it was a terrible move. I don't think it was a disastrous move or anything, but I don't think it was a good one, either. I generally don't like deals for buyers at the deadline. Teams overstate the need for a certain player, and if that team ends up winning, people always excuse the deal as, 'Hey, they won, can't question it.'

I don't think adding Chapman really made much of a difference at all in winning the WS. That's the issue here. They were pretty heavy favorites without Chapman, and still almost lost with him. The playoffs are a crapshoot, all you can do is go in with a good chance. I think it is smart to try to add bullpen help, but I don't think they needed a stud closer, and you're always going to overpay for them at the deadline, which they did.

Sure, they won the WS, but they had a really good shot anyway, and they could look back in a few years and realize that winning more would be much easier with Torres.
 
Internal valuations by the Cubs indicated the acquisition of Chapman would increase their odds of winning the WS by 5%. I have no idea how they arrived at that figure, but it probably hinged on the assumption Chapman, and all elite relievers, are able to pitch a larger portion of the innings during the postseason and have a much larger impact than they do during the regular season.

That is the justification of trading for Chapman. Stupidly saying "they won a championship so it was worth it" is not. By that logic any move the Cubs, or any WS team, made that year is justified no matter how bad it was.
 
If any team can be excused for making that kind of trade it was the cubs. And that number was pulled out of their ass.
 
smootness said:
Then why are you on here attempting to discuss these things? If you admit that as a fan, you don't care about whether the decisions of the FO are smart or not, and your response to every trade will be, 'Who cares about value? I WANNA WIN!!' that's fine, but you should probably back out of the discussion.

Because, 'Hey, fans are irrational and dumb' is not a defense of a move.
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That's an enormous stretch, and you know it.

The point is that yes, by nature FANS are irrational, and typically only interested in the front office making "win now" moves. Particularly those whose teams hadn't won a Title in well over a century. There's also absolutely nothing wrong with that to the vast majority of people in this world. Many of us get it - fans typically want to win at all costs. That's OK - it's human nature, and nothing they should feel a need to apologize for. This isn't their money (directly, anyway), these aren't their mistakes, but you bet your sweet *ss this is THEIR TEAM. They feel as bad if not worse than the players, coaches, and brass when they lose. There's always a brighter morning after they win - especially several games in a row. There's a grin that just won't go away during the work day when that happens.

The thing "average fans" like that understand so much better than so many people that scream about those who are "irrational and dumb" is that they have absolutely no say in and no control over the situation at all. No matter how many times you've broken down and massaged the numbers, things just don't always go the way you expect them to. To a point, ignorance really is bliss - insomuch as those of us called ignorant by those who approach the game from a strictly numbers-based perspective actually are "ignorant".

This really gets back to the reason many people simply dislike the numbers community - there's nothing wrong with someone's "defense of a move" being "I'm a FAN and I want my team to win". You don't have to like that, and there's nothing wrong with that either. You'd rather fuss and argue over the numbers and be miserable when someone doesn't do things "by the book". That's absolutely your prerogative, and telling you you shouldn't be that way is every bit as disrespectful as you telling them they shouldn't be the way they are.

I know it really gets under several posters' skins, but the only people who ever need to "defend a move" are the managers, coaches, players, and brass - regardless of what you want to do with all the numbers and data that's out there, the rest of you are simply FANS like us.
 
cajunrevenge said:
If any team can be excused for making that kind of trade it was the cubs. And that number was pulled out of their ass.
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Just because you don't understand how a number was calculated does not mean it was pulled from an ass. I'm sure your minimal intellect means you don't know how the vast majority of numbers in the world are calculated...but they are all still valid.
 
I acknowledge I cant compete with a genius of your level but their number is the same I would come up with by pulling it out of my ass. If your going to do the math I guarantee you its not coming out to a nice round number like 5%. It would be more like 4.71% or 5.21%, but what do I know.
 
clvclv said:
That's an enormous stretch, and you know it.

The point is that yes, by nature FANS are irrational, and typically only interested in the front office making "win now" moves. Particularly those whose teams hadn't won a Title in well over a century. There's also absolutely nothing wrong with that to the vast majority of people in this world. Many of us get it - fans typically want to win at all costs. That's OK - it's human nature, and nothing they should feel a need to apologize for. This isn't their money (directly, anyway), these aren't their mistakes, but you bet your sweet *ss this is THEIR TEAM. They feel as bad if not worse than the players, coaches, and brass when they lose. There's always a brighter morning after they win - especially several games in a row. There's a grin that just won't go away during the work day when that happens.

The thing "average fans" like that understand so much better than so many people that scream about those who are "irrational and dumb" is that they have absolutely no say in and no control over the situation at all. No matter how many times you've broken down and massaged the numbers, things just don't always go the way you expect them to. To a point, ignorance really is bliss - insomuch as those of us called ignorant by those who approach the game from a strictly numbers-based perspective actually are "ignorant".

This really gets back to the reason many people simply dislike the numbers community - there's nothing wrong with someone's "defense of a move" being "I'm a FAN and I want my team to win". You don't have to like that, and there's nothing wrong with that either. You'd rather fuss and argue over the numbers and be miserable when someone doesn't do things "by the book". That's absolutely your prerogative, and telling you you shouldn't be that way is every bit as disrespectful as you telling them they shouldn't be the way they are.

I know it really gets under several posters' skins, but the only people who ever need to "defend a move" are the managers, coaches, players, and brass - regardless of what you want to do with all the numbers and data that's out there, the rest of you are simply FANS like us.
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I honestly have no idea what point you're trying to make. I realize fans are irrational, and that is totally fine. I'm plenty irrational myself at times. I'm simply saying that in reality, when removing that irrationality, I think it was a bad deal. Obviously Cubs fans don't care right now, but they may in 5 years when Chapman is 5 years gone, they realize he really didn't help much in winning the title, and Torres is killing it.

I just don't know why the opinions of irrational fans matters in evaluating the deal. Even in Braves moves, I'm going to root like crazy for the Braves either way, and if they win all is fine, but I still try to be realistic and objective in evaluating moves. That's why we're all here on this board.
 
I'm also not sure why you're bringing up the 'numbers community'. I have said nothing about numbers in this trade and don't really ever use any kind of statistical analytics to discuss trades.
 
cajunrevenge said:
I acknowledge I cant compete with a genius of your level but their number is the same I would come up with by pulling it out of my ass. If your going to do the math I guarantee you its not coming out to a nice round number like 5%. It would be more like 4.71% or 5.21%, but what do I know.
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True, but maybe, just maybe, since they were giving an interview they said "about 5%"? Maybe?

Is logic really that hard for you to process? How do you do things like grocery shop and laundry? My word, how do you manage to file your taxes or operate a microwave? Do you hurt yourself while opening the can of beef stew you eat for dinner?
 
smootness said:
I honestly have no idea what point you're trying to make. I realize fans are irrational, and that is totally fine. I'm plenty irrational myself at times. I'm simply saying that in reality, when removing that irrationality, I think it was a bad deal. Obviously Cubs fans don't care right now, but they may in 5 years when Chapman is 5 years gone, they realize he really didn't help much in winning the title, and Torres is killing it.

I just don't know why the opinions of irrational fans matters in evaluating the deal. Even in Braves moves, I'm going to root like crazy for the Braves either way, and if they win all is fine, but I still try to be realistic and objective in evaluating moves. That's why we're all here on this board.
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The point is that the vast majority of "average" Cubs fans have never heard of Gleyber Torres, and will never care that he was traded.

What you're missing is that huge numbers of fans don't follow their teams' minor league systems - many of those people we saw in those commercials and spots during the Series may not even be able to tell you where the Cubs' farm clubs are even located. They don't frequent message boards. Oodles of them are 70+ year olds who couldn't operate a smartphone.

I never made an effort to "evaluate the deal", I simply pointed out that there's very little chance you'll find Cubs fans who will ever lament it because it brought them Chapman. SSS his postseason contributions all you like, the vast majority of Cubs fans will always consider his addition as a huge part of their Championship - regardless of how advanced metrics reflect his contribution. To those fans, wins, ERA, batting average, and RBIs matter - and they matter A LOT.
 
Enscheff said:
True, but maybe, just maybe, since they were giving an interview they said "about 5%"? Maybe?

Is logic really that hard for you to process? How do you do things like grocery shop and laundry? My word, how do you manage to file your taxes or operate a microwave? Do you hurt yourself while opening the can of beef stew you eat for dinner?
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I actually agree with that...it was a rounded number. It is a number greatly depending on opinions. It turns out a good trade because they won the WS. This was such a close one...even 1% of an increased chance, could maybe be the difference. Whatever the percentage...it definitely paid off and when it's been as long as it was for the Cubs...you have to go all in when the chance is there. I would consider this a bad trade for most teams as to what was given up. The Yankees also came out smelling like roses, so it was a win for both teams.

Enscheff: You have mentioned because of the different dead time with your job, it provides you extra time to crunch stats. You have probably more knowledge than anyone on here, because you have the time to put in. The fact that everyone posting on here doesn't have time, does not mean they have low IQ's....it just means....they don't have time to crunch stats, because they...well...don't have the extra time to crunch stats.

My point?

Are we not all on the same team? I get it...you get bored and you have fun stirring the pot. It frustrates you that everyone hasn't put the same time in as you have. Most people just can't. How about being nice to the people that are on your team and "if" you just need the rub of a good argument....sign up on a Mets or Phillies board and give them HELL.
 
I remember when I was a stathead around here. If Enscheff has some legitimate background in statistical analysis I am all ears. If he did I think he would know bull**** when he sees it. Maybe he can enlighten me on whether that 5% is cumulative or additive. I like statistical analysis but there is no way to prove this right or wrong. The variables are impossible to quantify. Who needs all that math to determine adding Chapman slightly increases their chances of winning the world series.
 
clvclv said:
The point is that the vast majority of "average" Cubs fans have never heard of Gleyber Torres, and will never care that he was traded.

What you're missing is that huge numbers of fans don't follow their teams' minor league systems - many of those people we saw in those commercials and spots during the Series may not even be able to tell you where the Cubs' farm clubs are even located. They don't frequent message boards. Oodles of them are 70+ year olds who couldn't operate a smartphone.

I never made an effort to "evaluate the deal", I simply pointed out that there's very little chance you'll find Cubs fans who will ever lament it because it brought them Chapman. SSS his postseason contributions all you like, the vast majority of Cubs fans will always consider his addition as a huge part of their Championship - regardless of how advanced metrics reflect his contribution. To those fans, wins, ERA, batting average, and RBIs matter - and they matter A LOT.
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And I never said anything about Cubs fans. I think it was a bad deal, whether a bunch of Cubs fans ever know who Torres is or not. If I didn't know who any Braves prospects were, it wouldn't make it a positive move to make bad trades to give up our whole system to get a little better at the MLB level.
 
cajunrevenge said:
I remember when I was a stathead around here. If Enscheff has some legitimate background in statistical analysis I am all ears. If he did I think he would know bull**** when he sees it. Maybe he can enlighten me on whether that 5% is cumulative or additive. I like statistical analysis but there is no way to prove this right or wrong. The variables are impossible to quantify. Who needs all that math to determine adding Chapman slightly increases their chances of winning the world series.
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I write software that game designers use to analyze and simulate the mathematical returns for all types of automated wager games played in casinos. I literally just released a beta version of an architecture that will allow everyone in our company to store and access all the poker math behind 93% of all poker machines on the planet.

So yeah, I think I have a little background when it comes to analyzing this kind of data.

But by all means, feel free to argue with me about that 5% value the Cubs were quoted as using to justify acquiring Chapman.
 
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