Since They're Talking About Him

[Enscheff]

I actually agree with that...it was a rounded number. It is a number greatly depending on opinions. It turns out a good trade because they won the WS. This was such a close one...even 1% of an increased chance, could maybe be the difference. Whatever the percentage...it definitely paid off and when it's been as long as it was for the Cubs...you have to go all in when the chance is there. I would consider this a bad trade for most teams as to what was given up. The Yankees also came out smelling like roses, so it was a win for both teams.

Enscheff: You have mentioned because of the different dead time with your job, it provides you extra time to crunch stats. You have probably more knowledge than anyone on here, because you have the time to put in. The fact that everyone posting on here doesn't have time, does not mean they have low IQ's....it just means....they don't have time to crunch stats, because they...well...don't have the extra time to crunch stats.

My point?

Are we not all on the same team? I get it...you get bored and you have fun stirring the pot. It frustrates you that everyone hasn't put the same time in as you have. Most people just can't. How about being nice to the people that are on your team and "if" you just need the rub of a good argument....sign up on a Mets or Phillies board and give them HELL.

I have no problem with stupid people. I love stupid people. They are how I make a living.

My issue is when stupid people argue that their opinion is valid when it isn't supported by fact. We live in a world now where everyone thinks their opinion should carry just as much weight as an expert's, no matter how uninformed that opinion is.

 

[TheBravos]

I have no problem with stupid people. I love stupid people. They are how I make a living.

My issue is when stupid people argue that their opinion is valid when it isn't supported by fact. We live in a world now where everyone thinks their opinion should carry just as much weight as an expert's, no matter how uninformed that opinion is.

So are you saying you are an expert? I for one will gladly admit that I'm not an expert.

If you are and love to crunch stats as much as you do....why not get a job in that field?

Opinions are just that. They do not have to be backed by fact. An opinion can be a gut feeling. A statement on the other hand needs to be backed by facts.

You have an opinion that some people on here are stupid because they do not agree with you method of player evaluation. Given it IS a credible method, there are other methods old and new. No method is full proof.

Calling someone stupid, that you do not even know is in fact an opinion. It is your opinion, and you have no stats (like an IQ test) to validate what you are saying.

So in fact giving a blanket statement about people you don't know because they don't agree with your methods is in fact giving them your eye test, your "gut" feeling. It's not valid.

 

[clvclv]

And I never said anything about Cubs fans. I think it was a bad deal, whether a bunch of Cubs fans ever know who Torres is or not. If I didn't know who any Braves prospects were, it wouldn't make it a positive move to make bad trades to give up our whole system to get a little better at the MLB level.

That was where this spun off its wheels though - Matt pointed out that teams will do stupid things at the deadline when they think they need one piece. I pointed out that the fans don't likely view it as stupid, whether our armchair GM selves do or not. The fan in them looked at Chapman as a huge addition, and you can still make the argument that he was - even if only in their minds.

You chose to run with that and rate the trade when no one else had made an attempt to do that. Was it a bad trade from a non-Cubs fan perspective? Sure. The point is that I bet none of them are interested in taking it back - lots of them will point to it as one of the biggest reasons they got their Championship, whether advanced metrics bear that out or not is irrelevant to many of them.

 

[smootness]

That was where this spun off its wheels though - Matt pointed out that teams will do stupid things at the deadline when they think they need one piece. I pointed out that the fans don't likely view it as stupid, whether our armchair GM selves do or not. The fan in them looked at Chapman as a huge addition, and you can still make the argument that he was - even if only in their minds.

You chose to run with that and rate the trade when no one else had made an attempt to do that. Was it a bad trade from a non-Cubs fan perspective? Sure. The point is that I bet none of them are interested in taking it back - lots of them will point to it as one of the biggest reasons they got their Championship, whether advanced metrics bear that out or not is irrelevant to many of them.

So again, you're the one who randomly brought up what the average, uninformed Cubs fan thought of it. He rated the trade as stupid...and you seem to agree. Saying the trade was 'stupid' and 'bad' are the same thing. He was saying that from an organizational and team standpoint, not from a fan standpoint.

Again, in determining whether or not the trade was stupid, why does the opinion of people who don't know anything and will call stupid trades good as long as they don't know what they gave up matter?

 

[Russ2dollas]

They're still talking about....Dozier.

Saw twins fans still talking about this on twitter. One said Albies + Newcombe for Dozier and the writer said the Braves would say no.

The writer said they'd listen to Albies and Folty/Wisler. NO way I'd do Folty. Albies and Wisler I'd have to think about. Really like Albies and Dozier only has two years of control and is over 30. I don't think I'd trade Albies for him....maybe I'm in the minority. Maybe it's just Dan Uggla flashbacks.

 

[clvclv]

So again, you're the one who randomly brought up what the average, uninformed Cubs fan thought of it. He rated the trade as stupid...and you seem to agree. Saying the trade was 'stupid' and 'bad' are the same thing. He was saying that from an organizational and team standpoint, not from a fan standpoint.

Again, in determining whether or not the trade was stupid, why does the opinion of people who don't know anything and will call stupid trades good as long as they don't know what they gave up matter?

Nobody questioned the level of stupid other than you. The loud minority. I agreed I probably wouldn't have made the trade personally - but I'm a Braves fan who hadn't been waiting 108 years for a Championship. The vast majority of Cubs fans likely feel differently. What else do you want for crying out loud???

 

[smootness]

Nobody questioned the level of stupid other than you. The loud minority. I agreed I probably wouldn't have made the trade personally - but I'm a Braves fan who hadn't been waiting 108 years for a Championship. The vast majority of Cubs fans likely feel differently. What else do you want for crying out loud???

Like I said, I have no idea what you're even talking about. You questioned the level of stupid by saying Cubs fans likely didn't think it was stupid...because they're ignorant of all the pieces involved. Matt offered an evaluation of the trade, you disagreed with that evaluation based on the opinion of Cubs fans, and when I questioned what their opinion had to do with an evaluation of the trade, you started spouting off this kind of nonsense that is irrelevant to anything.

I'm sure plenty of Cubs fans are giddy about the trade. That's totally fine, I don't think they're dumb for feeling that way. I just don't think it matters in evaluating whether the trade was a good one or not. That's it.

 

[Enscheff]

Like I said, I have no idea what you're even talking about. You questioned the level of stupid by saying Cubs fans likely didn't think it was stupid...because they're ignorant of all the pieces involved. Matt offered an evaluation of the trade, you disagreed with that evaluation based on the opinion of Cubs fans, and when I questioned what their opinion had to do with an evaluation of the trade, you started spouting off this kind of nonsense that is irrelevant to anything.

I'm sure plenty of Cubs fans are giddy about the trade. That's totally fine, I don't think they're dumb for feeling that way. I just don't think it matters in evaluating whether the trade was a good one or not. That's it.

Your problem is trying to base your side of the discussion on logic when chatting with clv.

You state "the Chapman trade was bad value for the Cubs". Clv responds with "ignorant Cubs fans loved it", not because that point logically contradicts your point, but because it's the only thing he could come up with.

 

[clvclv]

Your problem is trying to base your side of the discussion on logic when chatting with clv.

You state "the Chapman trade was bad value for the Cubs". Clv responds with "ignorant Cubs fans loved it", not because that point logically contradicts your point, but because it's the only thing he could come up with.

Tough Monday finding someone to waste their time with you troll???

 

[TheBravos]

They're still talking about....Dozier.

Saw twins fans still talking about this on twitter. One said Albies + Newcombe for Dozier and the writer said the Braves would say no.

The writer said they'd listen to Albies and Folty/Wisler. NO way I'd do Folty. Albies and Wisler I'd have to think about. Really like Albies and Dozier only has two years of control and is over 30. I don't think I'd trade Albies for him....maybe I'm in the minority. Maybe it's just Dan Uggla flashbacks.

Yeah, not big on the Albies spin. I would do a Wisler, Blair and someone like Ruiz (maybe). With Albies and Dermeritte close...no need to jump the gun, unless you get him for a very reasonable trade and are able to flip him (or he agrees to a very reasonable extension). Neither of which will happen.

 

[smootness]

Yeah, not big on the Albies spin. I would do a Wisler, Blair and someone like Ruiz (maybe). With Albies and Dermeritte close...no need to jump the gun, unless you get him for a very reasonable trade and are able to flip him (or he agrees to a very reasonable extension). Neither of which will happen.

I'm not the world's biggest Dozier fan, but even I wouldn't do that deal if I were the Twins.

 

[rawwr]

Nobody questioned the level of stupid other than you. The loud minority. I agreed I probably wouldn't have made the trade personally - but I'm a Braves fan who hadn't been waiting 108 years for a Championship. The vast majority of Cubs fans likely feel differently. What else do you want for crying out loud???

I think he's just confused because he said "the trade was stupid" and then you said "you won't find any cubs fans who were bothered by it" and it came off as though you wanted to rebut what he said, but your statement doesn't really have any bearing on his statement. Then you turned it into a statheads vs real fans thing or something.

 

[Enscheff]

Tough Monday finding someone to waste their time with you troll???

Actually I find it rather amusing to read intelligent posters like Smoot and Rawwr calling you a moron (though they do it more politely than I do).

It takes some of the load off me.

 

[CrimsonCowboy]

Last time, stop with the personal attacks and name calling.

 

[TheBravos]

I'm not the world's biggest Dozier fan, but even I wouldn't do that deal if I were the Twins.

Exactly, I wouldn't do that if I were the Twins either. A trade like that would be the only one worth it for the Braves to do...and it will of course never happen.

 

[Russ2dollas]

Exactly, I wouldn't do that if I were the Twins either. A trade like that would be the only one worth it for the Braves to do...and it will of course never happen.

I'd trade Dermerrite for him. It they'd take TD, Weigel and Wisler/Blair I'd probably do it. If I'm the twins I probably don't do that deal b/c they think they are selling high. But he's only got two years on the deal and he's over 30.

That's a deal I do if I think he can play 3B. Dozier, Swanson, Rodriguez. Then Albies at 2B and Rod as super sub.

 

[cajunrevenge]

I write software that game designers use to analyze and simulate the mathematical returns for all types of automated wager games played in casinos. I literally just released a beta version of an architecture that will allow everyone in our company to store and access all the poker math behind 93% of all poker machines on the planet.

So yeah, I think I have a little background when it comes to analyzing this kind of data.

But by all means, feel free to argue with me about that 5% value the Cubs were quoted as using to justify acquiring Chapman.

I dont care if you are the reanimated corpse of Albert Einstein, the game isnt played on paper. There is no magic formula. The reason I mock you is because you take your opinion as facts. I mock just about anyone that talks in absolutes about baseball. We can analyze what has happened and thats very valuable, what I dont agree with is treating future projections as facts and then trying to analyze it like its already happened. Thats bullcrap. I never see any of these projection systems project a big breakout. They never predict a .750 OPS hitter having a .900 OPS the next year. They just hedge their bets which will make them right more times than not but predicting players to be the same as last year with regression to the mean is hardly groundbreaking. I dont need advanced stats to say adding an elite closer will slightly improve the chances of a playoff team of winning the world series. Especially when its all theoretical with no way to prove right or wrong.

If you cant even conceive that your opinion might be wrong then I dont care what your background is, you are not as smart as you think you are. Generally the people who try so hard to convince you how smart they are are the dumbest people. I am atleast smart enough to know that I dont know everything and dont have all the answers. Thats why I seek out differing opinions.

 

[mfree80]

I dont care if you are the reanimated corpse of Albert Einstein, the game isnt played on paper. There is no magic formula. The reason I mock you is because you take your opinion as facts. I mock just about anyone that talks in absolutes about baseball. We can analyze what has happened and thats very valuable, what I dont agree with is treating future projections as facts and then trying to analyze it like its already happened. Thats bullcrap. I never see any of these projection systems project a big breakout. They never predict a .750 OPS hitter having a .900 OPS the next year. They just hedge their bets which will make them right more times than not but predicting players to be the same as last year with regression to the mean is hardly groundbreaking. I dont need advanced stats to say adding an elite closer will slightly improve the chances of a playoff team of winning the world series. Especially when its all theoretical with no way to prove right or wrong.

If you cant even conceive that your opinion might be wrong then I dont care what your background is, you are not as smart as you think you are.

This!!!!! I vote we still play the games, and not just add up the projected WAR and declare a winner before the season starts!

 

[Knucksie]

Kelly was supposed to be 1.000 OPS when that the was the flavor of the month stat. Then wasn't it 5.0 WAR for Jason?

 

[Enscheff]

I dont care if you are the reanimated corpse of Albert Einstein, the game isnt played on paper. There is no magic formula. The reason I mock you is because you take your opinion as facts. I mock just about anyone that talks in absolutes about baseball. We can analyze what has happened and thats very valuable, what I dont agree with is treating future projections as facts and then trying to analyze it like its already happened. Thats bullcrap. I never see any of these projection systems project a big breakout. They never predict a .750 OPS hitter having a .900 OPS the next year. They just hedge their bets which will make them right more times than not but predicting players to be the same as last year with regression to the mean is hardly groundbreaking. I dont need advanced stats to say adding an elite closer will slightly improve the chances of a playoff team of winning the world series. Especially when its all theoretical with no way to prove right or wrong.

If you cant even conceive that your opinion might be wrong then I dont care what your background is, you are not as smart as you think you are. Generally the people who try so hard to convince you how smart they are are the dumbest people. I am atleast smart enough to know that I dont know everything and dont have all the answers. Thats why I seek out differing opinions.

Then how do you propose to build a team if not considering projections? Fact of the matter is that these types of analyses are being adopted league-wide because they work. Nobody cares if you understand them, like them, or agree with them. They are being used, so if you want to discuss roster construction intelligently you better learn these processes too.

The last stupid GM you could relate to was just fired by the DBacks, so now you are completely out of touch with how teams are currently constructed.