BP's 2017 PECOTA projections

Russ2dollas said:
You're going to have to pry FF out of my hands. If you pay me like he's an MVP I'll listen b/c he's a 1B and I can replace 1B. But otherwise no.

Tehran is more interesting. IF our pitchers really take a step forward AND I get a big time return then maybe I'd deal him. But in that case you'd have to feel pretty dang good that at least two of Fried, Newcombe, Weigel is playing next year and playing well and that at least one of Wisler/Blair is going to be a 5th starter.
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Again, this is all predicated on the idea that we have another really bad year. I don't think we will, but if we do, then that changes things. I'm still not going to trade Teheran and Freeman unless I got at least full value for them, but we should be entertaining those options at that point.
 
smootness said:
Again, this is all predicated on the idea that we have another really bad year. I don't think we will, but if we do, then that changes things. I'm still not going to trade Teheran and Freeman unless I got at least full value for them, but we should be entertaining those options at that point.
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But we can't go into constant rebuild.

If we are awful this year we still have:
CF locked up with a 3+ win player
Swanson locked in a SS...hopefully he's not a reason we suck and he should get better
Albies hopefully locked in a 2B...hopefully he's not a reason we suck and he should get better
FF through 2021
Tehran through 2020

We could easily be a couple of moves from being good. And we should have some money with a lot of our core guys cost controlled.

FF for a bunch of A ball guys is not going to work if we have 4 wins.

We would need to be awful and have a team like the Astros feel they are a stud 1B away from winning it. Then they need to give us players that are ready now or w/i a year to fill holes at C, 3B, OF corners. It seems like a very unlikely scenario.

It's still super unlikely, but I can see something where things click for some combination of Newcombe, Wiegel, Fried, Wisler and Blair. Someone feels they are a starter away and offers a Sale type package for JT b/c they are desperate. Maybe Coppy would have the stones to do that deal if we are bad.

Then the next year your rotation is Folty, 2 of Newcombe/Fried/Weigel, 1 of Blair/Wisler and a Vet.

But I don' think so. I think we'll be good enough to pretend we're in the WC hunt for most of the year. The hope will be that Jamie Garcia is the good version and he can be flipped for something good and that Colon and Dickey can be flipped for something.
 
The most likely JT deal time has to be the offseason before 2019, right?

At that time the first wave is really ready right? Fried, Wiegel, and Newcombe are probably already playing and you know what they likely are. Folty has declared himself.

The Rome Braves staff is knocking on the door and the hope is at least 1 of those guys is about to be a TOR and hopefully 1-2 more are guys you are excited to have in your staff.

The person trading for JT gets two years of control but they are only on the hook for 1 year of financial commitment b/c of the team option.

I'd be very surprised if he's dealt before 2019.

I'd be shocked if FF is ever dealt.
 
Russ2dollas said:
But we can't go into constant rebuild.

If we are awful this year we still have:
CF locked up with a 3+ win player
Swanson locked in a SS...hopefully he's not a reason we suck and he should get better
Albies hopefully locked in a 2B...hopefully he's not a reason we suck and he should get better
FF through 2021
Tehran through 2020

We could easily be a couple of moves from being good. And we should have some money with a lot of our core guys cost controlled.

FF for a bunch of A ball guys is not going to work if we have 4 wins.

We would need to be awful and have a team like the Astros feel they are a stud 1B away from winning it. Then they need to give us players that are ready now or w/i a year to fill holes at C, 3B, OF corners. It seems like a very unlikely scenario.

It's still super unlikely, but I can see something where things click for some combination of Newcombe, Wiegel, Fried, Wisler and Blair. Someone feels they are a starter away and offers a Sale type package for JT b/c they are desperate. Maybe Coppy would have the stones to do that deal if we are bad.

Then the next year your rotation is Folty, 2 of Newcombe/Fried/Weigel, 1 of Blair/Wisler and a Vet.

But I don' think so. I think we'll be good enough to pretend we're in the WC hunt for most of the year. The hope will be that Jamie Garcia is the good version and he can be flipped for something good and that Colon and Dickey can be flipped for something.
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Where did I say we needed to trade Freeman for a bunch of A-ball guys? You could get 2-3 good prospects that are nearly ready for him if he replicates what he did last year.
 
smootness said:
Where did I say we needed to trade Freeman for a bunch of A-ball guys? You could get 2-3 good prospects that are nearly ready for him if he replicates what he did last year.
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You didn't. What I meant is even if they are a really highly regarded guy, we need guys that are closer. So a top 50 guy in A ball can't be top piece.

I just can't think of a deal that makes sense for the Braves. The only team I can think of is the Astros. Are we going to get Tucker, Reed, stubbs and an arm?
 
Russ2dollas said:
You didn't. What I meant is even if they are a really highly regarded guy, we need guys that are closer. So a top 50 guy in A ball can't be top piece.

I just can't think of a deal that makes sense for the Braves. The only team I can think of is the Astros. Are we going to get Tucker, Reed, stubbs and an arm?
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The landscape will change over the course of this year. If Tucker takes a step forward, we could go after Martes, Tucker, and Cameron, for example. May be shooting high, but that would be two high-end prospects who wouldn't be far away by that point and then a lottery ticket.

You could even go for a one-for-one deal for somebody like Benintendi whose timeline fits Atlanta a little better.
 
smootness said:
The landscape will change over the course of this year. If Tucker takes a step forward, we could go after Martes, Tucker, and Cameron, for example. May be shooting high, but that would be two high-end prospects who wouldn't be far away by that point and then a lottery ticket.

You could even go for a one-for-one deal for somebody like Benintendi whose timeline fits Atlanta a little better.
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I can't see FF going in a 1 for 1 deal.

this is all fantasy land. I just don't see Coppy even thinking about FF.
 
smootness said:
The landscape will change over the course of this year. If Tucker takes a step forward, we could go after Martes, Tucker, and Cameron, for example. May be shooting high, but that would be two high-end prospects who wouldn't be far away by that point and then a lottery ticket.

You could even go for a one-for-one deal for somebody like Benintendi whose timeline fits Atlanta a little better.
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but i get your point from a fantasy baseball side.

Are we better off with Kemp in LF, Garcia/Rod/Ruiz at 3B, and FF at 1B or Benintendi at 3B, Kemp at 1B, DPeterson in LF? WAR prob says we're better off with Benintendi.

I just don't see it in the real world where Coppy clearly values having a franchise guy
 
thewupk said:
They could have been. When you are in that range anything can happen. Most projections had them losing value at the MLB team with the Ender and Miller swap. Where I'm sure the Dbacks thought they were adding wins instead of losing them. It was that line of thinking that got Stewart the boot.
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I made a ton of money betting the DBacks season total under in Vegas. That was probably the easiest one I can remember over the past few years. All you had to do was look at catcher and ballpark and know those pitching numbers were going to come crashing down. I thought the under was easy even before Pollack got hurt.
 
gilesfan said:
I made a ton of money betting the DBacks season total under in Vegas. That was probably the easiest one I can remember over the past few years. All you had to do was look at catcher and ballpark and know those pitching numbers were going to come crashing down. I thought the under was easy even before Pollack got hurt.
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You made a ton of money on a single over/under bet? I call bull****.
 
Russ2dollas said:
but i get your point from a fantasy baseball side.

Are we better off with Kemp in LF, Garcia/Rod/Ruiz at 3B, and FF at 1B or Benintendi at 3B, Kemp at 1B, DPeterson in LF? WAR prob says we're better off with Benintendi.

I just don't see it in the real world where Coppy clearly values having a franchise guy
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Coppy likes thinking out of the box, but putting a left hander at 3B might be a little too far off the reservation.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
If the Braves only win 72 games, they should go ahead and at least look to trade Freeman and Teheran. The logic in keeping them is that the bottom has been reached and the Braves are climbing up. If they aren't better than 72 wins, that means the likely time of being competitive is 2-3 years away, instead of being 2-3 years away from right now. If that is the case, then Freeman will be past his prime and Teheran will be a FA.

The Braves don't need to get locked into a never ending cycle of mediocrity, not bad enough to be in position to get better, not good enough to actually win anything.
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How can you possibly say that though, when our rotation this year is primarily made up of stop gap pitchers, who have no bearing on the future? That doesn't make sense to me.
 
smootness said:
Where did I say we needed to trade Freeman for a bunch of A-ball guys? You could get 2-3 good prospects that are nearly ready for him if he replicates what he did last year.
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I still think that Freeman's contract is still a pretty decent bet to be undesirable at some point. If the Braves could get three high level prospects for him, it might be worthy of consideration, but I'm not sure he carries that kind of trade value. Maybe he does.
 
thewupk said:
Their business should be building winnings teams. If the guys they have that are close don't perform and we aren't winning that would be a set back and we would need to proceed accordingly. Keeping Freeman in that situation wouldn't be smart.
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Taken purely from an empirical standpoint, both Freddie and Julio should gone already. There was no reason to hang on to the two best players - value priced - through the rebuild. But they did.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Taken purely from an empirical standpoint, both Freddie and Julio should gone already. There was no reason to hang on to the two best players - value priced - through the rebuild. But they did.
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True. But you had them signed for so long and cheap through their primes it is worth trying to rebuild quickly to have a chance to win with them.
 
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