System Depth: Middle Infield

[Carp]

It is a mix of reasons. It is worth noting than none of Terdoslavich, Cunningham and Gosselin were on the 40-man when the decision was made to call them up. Gosselin had a limited number of AAA at bats at the time.

Terdo and Cunningham were brought up due to several injuries in the OF, a position La Stella has not played. And both of these guys have seen playing time above AA. At the time Uggla went down, we had planned on using only Pastor and Janish . Gosselin was brought up purely a defensive replacement to replace Pastor after he went down. And he can play multiple positions as well.

This isn't just my opinion either. Several articles echo the same sentiments about La Stella. TomahawkTake even mentioned it was unlikely La Stella would be up at all this yr, even for Septemeber call ups. And they mentioned this before Uggla even went on the DL.

 

[Carp]

Probably around .150-.170

Considering as a 23 year old in AAA Prado had an iso of .105 (and as a 24 in AA as well though that was a rehab assignment, just wanted to point out the uncanny same iso in a SSS) I don't think repeating the same iso in the majors is out of the question. Generally you have more power in the majors than the minors because you're playing your most physically mature seasons in the majors where your body isn't changing much same is true with guys who make old debuts. Some examples

Ryan Howard major league iso .274 minor league iso .250. Jason Bay major league iso .215 minor league iso .185 Chase Utley major league iso .212 minor league .182, Jayson Werth Major League iso .196 minor league iso .160, Dan Uggla major league iso .214 minor league .167

Any small amount of research would tell you that generally guys get more power in the majors than in the minors. Sure there are some cases otherwise but La Stella is showing very positive numbers where regression is most likely (BB% and K%) and has a decent but not amazing iso.

If he got to majors and say had a 10% K% 10% BB% and .150 iso that's a pretty similar numbers to the career averages Pedroia. Obviously Pedroia is a MUCH better defender, but Pedroia also wasn't too highly thought of as a prospect. Never cracking the BA top 100. if La Stella could hit like Pedroia and be acceptable with the glove he'd be an excellent value player.

Exactly

 

[nsacpi]

I'm pretty sure ISO typically drops when converted to their major league equivalents. Since the conversion is based on an average, you can always find some players who do better than average as they move to the majors and some who do worse.

 

[zitothebrave]

I'm pretty sure ISO typically drops when converted to their major league equivalents. Since the conversion is based on an average, you can always find some players who do better than average as they move to the majors and some who do worse.

Some guys may be exceptions. But in general players gain power as they get into their late 20s.

You're also ignoring that La Stella had higher isos the last 2 seasons.

 

[nsacpi]

If anyone wants to investigate ISO numbers, thebaseballcube.com has the major league and minor league numbers for each player. You can click on the "advanced" tab for each player to see their numbers.

I just took a quick look for Braves players. Most have higher career minor league ISO's than career major league ISO's.

There is an interesting pattern, however. The exceptions are mainly guys drafted out of high school who played young relative to the minor leagues they were in. This includes McCann, Freeman, the Uptons. Also Uggla who is an exception to the exceptions as a classical late bloomer.

The guys who were drafted as college players tend to have higher career minor league ISO's because for the most part they played old relative to their minor leagues. Guys in this group include Laird, Reed Johnson, Elliot Johnson, Chris Johnson, Janish, Gattis, Simmons, Terdoslavich. Also a couple high school draftees (Schafer and Heyward) so far have lower major league ISO's than their career numbers in the minors.

So the two main points just from looking at the guys on the Braves roster is that most players have lower career major league ISO's than career minor league ISO's. The exceptions are mostly guys who were drafted as high school players and played young relative to their leagues coming up through the minors.

I think the implications relative to La Stella are rather obvious and reinforce my views about him.

 

[zitothebrave]

Gattis, Simmons, and Terds have very small sample sizes. Can't believe you're using them as your case samples. That's straight up clown tactics.

But thanks to your tip saves me some time

Some more guys with higher major league iso than minor league

David Ortiz, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Napoli, Victorino, David Ross, JJ Hardy, McLouth, Tulo, Helton, and I could go on.

In general most guys I've looked at are about the same as they are in the minors or better. They don't regress too much.

 

[nsacpi]

Gattis, Simmons, and Terds have very small sample sizes. Can't believe you're using them as your case samples. That's straight up clown tactics.

The data are what they are. They were free to speak as they wish. No coercive techniques were used. I counted McCann on the other side of the ledger even though his career major league ISO is all of one point higher than his career minor league ISO. Even if you exclude the players you have objections to due to small sample size my two main conclusions would not be affected. More players on the Braves roster have higher minor league ISO's. And the exceptions are predominantly guys drafted out of high school (I suspect international players would follow a pattern similar to high school draftees because they too start their careers at an early age and tend to play young relative to their leagues; see Bethancourt, Salcedo, Peraza for players for whom this consideration is relevant but with the opposite implication from La Stella).

It is interesting to apply these considerations to our centerfield prospects. Cunningham and Wren were drafted out of college and statistically have shown better results than Lipka who was drafted out of high school. But Lipka has been much younger for his league compared to the other two. It will be interesting to see which one ends up doing better. I have no particular fondness for Lipka, but the data suggest that age relative to league is something that is very important to take into account when assessing a prospect. Of course there are exceptions. Uggla. Gattis. Maybe La Stella will be another exception.

 

[jpack1]

Players almost always show more power in the majors. Almost always. If he is capable defensively he will be a starter. A good comp is closer to Kelly Johnson with more contract.

 

[Carp]

The data are what they are. They were free to speak as they wish. No coercive techniques were used. I counted McCann on the other side of the ledger even though his career major league ISO is all of one point higher than his career minor league ISO. Even if you exclude the players you have objections to due to small sample size my two main conclusions would not be affected. More players on the Braves roster have higher minor league ISO's. And the exceptions are predominantly guys drafted out of high school (I suspect international players would follow a pattern similar to high school draftees because they too start their careers at an early age and tend to play young relative to their leagues; see Bethancourt, Salcedo, Peraza for players for whom this consideration is relevant but with the opposite implication from La Stella).

It is interesting to apply these considerations to our centerfield prospects. Cunningham and Wren were drafted out of college and statistically have shown better results than Lipka who was drafted out of high school. But Lipka has been much younger for his league compared to the other two. It will be interesting to see which one ends up doing better. I have no particular fondness for Lipka, but the data suggest that age relative to league is something that is very important to take into account when assessing a prospect. Of course there are exceptions. Uggla. Gattis. Maybe La Stella will be another exception.

For the most part, I think you will find, among players who are above at their position, that they show better power numbers in the majors as they grow older compared to their minor league numbers. Obviously guys who are averagish or utility types of players are going to see their numbers decrease in the majors, as the level of competition is simply much higher

 

[nsacpi]

For the most part, I think you will find, among players who are above at their position, that they show better power numbers in the majors as they grow older compared to their minor league numbers. Obviously guys who are averagish or utility types of players are going to see their numbers decrease in the majors, as the level of competition is simply much higher

That's a tricky statistical issue. If you look just at very good major league players, you are restricting yourself to a particular portion of the distribution of outcomes. There is nothing pre-ordained about La Stella or any other minor leaguer becoming a very good major league player.

I think the right statistical approach is to look at a group of players who produced similar numbers at a similar age in AA, and see what happened with that group. There will be some who washed out, some who were fringe major leaguers, some who were backups in the majors and some who became very good major leaguers. But that kind of approach will give you a good look at the distribution of possibilities.

 

[Carp]

That's a tricky statistical issue. If you look just at very good major league players, you are restricting yourself to a particular portion of the distribution of outcomes. There is nothing pre-ordained about La Stella or any other minor leaguer becoming a very good major league player.

I think the right statistical approach is to look at a group of players who produced similar numbers at a similar age in AA, and see what happened with that group. There will be some who washed out, some who were fringe major leaguers, some who were backups in the majors and some who became very good major leaguers. But that kind of approach will give you a good look at the distribution of possibilities.

Yet you are assuming he'll hit for less power in the majors, and you yourself labeled him as a bench player. He's played in about half a season's worth of games in AA. He could have a 2 homer game and be right around his career minor league numbers. Without looking, I'd be willing to bet a week or two ago it was probably much higher.

 

[50PoundHead]

My 2 and 1/2 cents.

I don't think Omar Infante and Kelly Johnson are good comparisons for LaStella. When Infante was LaStella's age, he had already played in more than 400 major league games. I doubt LaStella will have anything close to Johnson's power.

He may be a left-handed version of Prado. When I first saw Prado, I never thought he'd develop into the player he has. His minor league power numbers look very similar to LaStella's and LaStella has better overall on-base skills at the minor league level. Prado was, and remains, pretty much batting average-driven as a player. So it's not out of the question that LaStella could have a similar development arc. But again, Prado hit the bigs (although not full-time) when he was 22. I think his K numbers will rise and his BB rate will decline, but both are good so he can accommodate some decline without eroding his position as a prospect.

One has to keep in mind that LaStella was a college player, so that has slowed him down a bit, but I think the bigger issue for LaStella is going to be health. He's missed considerable time in both of the last two seasons and maybe he's one of those guys who isn't going to be able to stay on the field. He bears watching and I'm sure the Braves are watching him. Hope he does well in the Arizona Fall League. Bottom line, I think he's got a chance to be a decent mid-ceiling guy.

I think one of the reasons he wasn't brought up is that he doesn't have to go on the 40-man roster until after next season and Uggla wasn't sidelined for the season.

 

[skillet]

I agree with those that would put La Stella in the starter group, certainly not on the bench group. The bottom line is he has excelled at the plate for the 239 games he has played in the minor leagues. A career slash line of .326/.411/.497/.908 is excellent. He is essentially doing that same production in AA and has an OBP of .422 there which is phenomenal. I can only hope that somehow we can trade Uggla in the offseason and implant Tommy at 2nd.

 

[nsacpi]

Tommy La Stella has put up an OPS of .891 in AA at age 24.

Between 2005 and 2012, there have been eight players who have put up OPS between .850 and .900 in the Southern League at age 24.

Here is the list: Justin Ruggiano, James D'Antona, John Raynor, Johan Limonta, Cole Gillespie, Alfredo Silverio, Tyler Kuhn, Christian Marrero.

I'll throw out another player to consider. This player also played in the Southern League this year. He also had more walks than strikeouts. He also was drafted out of college, though after his junior year. He played mostly second, but also played some third and short this season. He had an OPS slightly higher than La Stella's while in the Southern League. He has some speed, with 20 stolen bases in the Southern League this year with 5 CS. He showed more power than La Stella with an ISO this year in the Southern League of .193 to .135 for La Stella. He did this at age 22. He is bigger, faster, stronger than La Stella. This is the type of player I would project as a starter in the majors.

Maybe La Stella will end up being the better player. But I bring up this other player to illustrate how tough the competition is. Making it to the majors is a tremendous accomplishment. But making it as a starter requires another level of talent entirely.

I should note that the player I described above is NOT considered a mega prospect. He is not going to be on any of the Top 100 prospect lists. That should provide some perspective on how tough the competition is out there for jobs in the major leagues.

 

[zitothebrave]

K% of the guys you listed as well as their 24 year old season service tiem

Ruggiano K% 22% service time 1 year
D'Antona K% 16.9% service time 1 year
Raynor K% 22.8% Service time 3 years
Limonta K% 21.5% Service time 4 years
Gillaspie K% 18.5% Service time 3 years (actually was 23 when he was in AA but I'll forgive you)
Silverio K% 15.9% Service time 5 years
Kuhn K% 13.6% Service time 5 years
Marrero K% 14.0% service time 6 years

Only guy somewhat close to La Stella is Gillaspie who has double the K% everyone else either did it much later or much earlier with a much higher K%.

What you're essentially proving is that blind comparison's based on one result are biased and essentially foolish.

 

[zitothebrave]

Fun fact. In 2013, with a minimum 300 PA requirement, La Stella is 25th in the Southern league in iso. The league leader? .227. The year before the leader was higher at .269 but Tommy would have been around the same spot. 2 years ago is where you'd have to go back to for Tommy not to be in the top 30. I think that it's largely safe to say that the Southern League isn't overly power friendly for most.

 

[nsacpi]

K% of the guys you listed as well as their 24 year old season service tiem

Ruggiano K% 22% service time 1 year
D'Antona K% 16.9% service time 1 year
Raynor K% 22.8% Service time 3 years
Limonta K% 21.5% Service time 4 years
Gillaspie K% 18.5% Service time 3 years (actually was 23 when he was in AA but I'll forgive you)
Silverio K% 15.9% Service time 5 years
Kuhn K% 13.6% Service time 5 years
Marrero K% 14.0% service time 6 years

Only guy somewhat close to La Stella is Gillaspie who has double the K% everyone else either did it much later or much earlier with a much higher K%.

What you're essentially proving is that blind comparison's based on one result are biased and essentially foolish.

What players would be on your list of guys that are comparable to La Stella?

 

[Teheran_49]

La Stella has an ISO at age 24 in AA that is similar to someone like Omar Infante in the majors. I'd be very happy to get Omar Infante type production from my second baseman. But the question is whether what La Stella is doing at age 24 in AA projects to something similar in the majors. A conservative adjustment would be to reduce any player's offensive output in AA by about 20% when projecting to the majors. Now that is an average. Some will do better, some worse. The question is what is a reasonable projection for a 24 year old player in AA. I think it would be substantially below what Omar Infante is doing in the majors. And then there is the question of defense. By all reports, La Stella is well below Infante as a defender. I'm rooting for him, as I root for all Braves prospects, but I try not to wear rose tinted glasses when making evaluations. He's had a terrific season in AA. No doubt about that.

So you wouldn't take Matt Carpenter as your 2b? I think people have over valued home runs. La Stella has shown plenty of gap power and so what if he only hits 10 HR's a year give me a guy who drives in runs and gets on base. I love the way the cardinals have constructed their line-up and just look at their team hitting stats. You only need 2-3 guys that will hit over 20+ HR's(Freeman,heyward and JUp) outside of that give me guys that hit for average and get on base. I think your under valuing La Stella and he has done nothing but show incredible plate discipline and good gap power which is a recipe for success.

 

[nsacpi]

So you wouldn't take Matt Carpenter as your 2b? I think people have over valued home runs. La Stella has shown plenty of gap power and so what if he only hits 10 HR's a year give me a guy who drives in runs and gets on base. I love the way the cardinals have constructed their line-up and just look at their team hitting stats. You only need 2-3 guys that will hit over 20+ HR's(Freeman,heyward and JUp) outside of that give me guys that hit for average and get on base. I think your under valuing La Stella and he has done nothing but show incredible plate discipline and good gap power which is a recipe for success.

Sure I would take Matt Carpenter. And my question for you is, what are the odds La Stella turns into a Matt Carpenter?

 

[zitothebrave]

Honestly I cannot think of a direct comparison for La Stella. Watching him I see Prado. Though a left handed version of him with more patience. Statwise who knows. I think the closest comp I can think of of a guy who doesn't have a ton of power, didn't make it to the majors until he was a bit older, and walked nearly as much as he K'd and all I can think of right now is Jacoby Ellsbury. Though Ellsbury had worse power in the minors than La Stella did. Maybe Alberto Callaspo.

I don't really know who to compare him to because you have to consider tons of factors. The facts we're dealing with are for the negative he is a bit old for his level, his glove is questionable, and health. Health is the only real concern of mine. You can improve the glove and age is just a number, sure it means we'll have less productive major league seasons out of him, but the positive is we can Jason Bay him and get all of his positive offensive seasons then let him leave via FA to be overpaid by someone. The positives for him is that he hits. He has never even remotely faltered on that category. Seems to me he has good line drive skills and has more of a Freeman swing where he can put the ball from gap to gap and not have to deal with extreme shifts as much.