Braves positional breakdown

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
FG just posted the last of their 2017 Positional Power Rankings:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-positional-power-rankings-introduction/

Compiling only the information for the Braves shows the massive amount of roster improvement the organization needs in order to build a playoff contender.

C - #28, 1.1 WAR
1B - #5, 3.8 WAR
3B - #30, 0.4 WAR
2B - #26, 1.0 WAR
SS - #15, 2.2 WAR
LF - #29, -0.1 WAR (yes, negative)
RF - #29, 0.4 WAR
CF - #16, 2.5 WAR

So....yuck.

The Braves are currently good at one position, 1B. They are average at SS and CF, while SS is probably trending up towards the Top 10 range.

Every other position is complete and utter garbage. They need to be fixed if the Braves want to win. Period.

2B should be fixed once Albies gets settled in Atlanta, so at least one position has an in house solution.

How do they fix C, 3B, LF and RF?

Their bottom 3 ranking at the catcher position with zero help present in the minors is the main reason I considered Castro to be the #1 FA target this offseason. Pairing Castro with Flowers would have given the Braves ~2 WAR from the catcher position, which would have ranked them in the #17-#20 range. Also worth noting, framing isn't factored into these WAR values, and since both Castro and Flowers are excellent pitch framers, that duo would have easily placed the Braves' catcher position in the above average range. Signing Lucroy to a deal less than 4/80 or 5/90 this offseason makes a lot of sense.

3B is harder to fix immediately. Could the Braves take a chance on Moustakas if the bidding for him doesn't get crazy? Should they just give Ruiz a chance for a couple seasons while he is being paid the league minimum? Would the Braves be interested in buying Donaldson's decline years after the 2018 season, and potentially blocking Maitan? My gut tells me to patch the position together with guys like SRod and Ruiz until Maitan is ready.

LF and RF are a total disaster, and the scary part is the FO seems to think the positions are OK despite being among the absolute worst in the game. I think it's obvious the plan is to have Inciarte and Acuna patrolling 2 spots in the OF by 2019 (when the Kemp and Markakis contracts just so happen to expire), but what about improving the OF for 2017 and 2018? The clear answer is to find a RHed 4th OFer that is more than a typical bench player. This 4th OFer needs to be able to handle CF, will be the daily defensive replacement for Kemp, and will be in a semi-platoon in RF with Markakis which means he needs to carry a .750+ OPS vs LHed pitchers. I expect this 4th OFer to get over 400 PAs in both 2017 and 2018. Maybe Pagan is that guy. Maybe Szczur can be acquired from the Cubs. I wanted Jennings or Austin Jackson this offseason to fill that role. Hopefully the FO sees the corner OF spots as the giant vortexes of suck they truly are and acts accordingly.
 
Those projections are obviously low, which I understand, though they're low across the league so rank within position should still be accurate.

I think we will have 4 legit answers by the end of the year, as you alluded to: 1B, CF, SS, 2B. Inciarte isn't league average, and as you said, Dansby won't be for long. I think Lucroy is a legitimate option at C, which would give you an answer for another 2-3 years. I think a Ruiz/Garcia platoon could end up roughly average, though it would likely be a bit below. The question about what to do with the OF for 2017 and 2018 is a good one, but I think it seems obvious what the answer is. I think our goal is to basically tread water this year, which I think we will do. I think we're hoping to flip at least 1-2 of the Garcia/Dickey/Colon group for something and rely on the young guys starting next year in the rotation. IF a couple of those guys can handle things well early (maybe Fried and Newcomb), then you could improve a bit going into 2018, even before you spend any money in FA, and I think we'll have a good bit to spend.

There won't be any great OF options on the FA market after this year, which is another reason why I think it's clear we'll just roll with Markakis and Kemp, but I wouldn't rule out a deal for a young-ish OF if we feel like we're ready to make a push.
 
For reference, here is a complete list of all OFers hitting the FA market after this season (a lot of duplicates since guys can play multiple positions):

Left Fielders

Michael Brantley (31) — $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Melky Cabrera (33)
Rajai Davis (37)
Jarrod Dyson (33)
Curtis Granderson (37)
Chris Heisey (33)
Matt Holliday (38)
Hyun Soo Kim (30)
Jon Jay (33)
J.D. Martinez (30)
Cameron Maybin (31)
Daniel Nava (35)
Colby Rasmus (31)
Michael Saunders (31) — $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Justin Upton (30) — Can opt out of the remaining four years, $88MM on his contract
Jayson Werth (39)
Chris B. Young (34)

Center Fielders

Lorenzo Cain (32)
Rajai Davis (37)
Jarrod Dyson (33)
Carlos Gomez (32)
Jon Jay (33)
Andrew McCutchen (31) — $14.75MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Colby Rasmus (31)
Ben Revere (30)
Melvin Upton Jr. (33)

Right Fielders

Jose Bautista (37) — $17MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
Carlos Beltran (40)
Jay Bruce (31)
Melky Cabrera (33)
Jarrod Dyson (33)
Andre Ethier (36) — $17.5MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout
Carlos Gonzalez (32)
Curtis Granderson (37)
Franklin Gutierrez (35)
Chris Heisey (33)
J.D. Martinez (30)
Andrew McCutchen (31) — $14.75MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Daniel Nava (35)
Michael Saunders (31) — $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Seth Smith (35)
Justin Upton (30) — Can opt out of the remaining four years, $88MM on his contract
Jayson Werth (39)
Chris B. Young (34)

This is where the Kemp trade especially hurts. Guys like JD Martinez and Bautista would have made a lot of sense for the Braves in LF, but the position is being clogged by Kemp.

Rajai Davis makes a lot of sense (again) as that RHed 4th OFer. The A's got him this offseason on a 1 year deal for $6M, so he should be affordable.

Melvin Upton makes sense too, but I can't see him as a realistic scenario for the Braves considering his history in Atlanta.

Maybin bats RHed, but I don't think he offers enough of an offensive upgrade vs LHers, and he is pretty bad in CF.
 
sturg33 said:
Kills me that we didn't lose one extra game in 2015 to snag Senzel
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The mindset of this FO is very frustrating.

They promoted Swanson to start his service clock, and now the Braves can't leave him in AAA for a couple weeks to gain an extra year of control.

Having Swanson on the roster likely caused the Braves to be just good enough to miss out on Senzel, who posted a .329/.415/.567 line with 7 HRs over 250 PAs in A ball after being drafted. All while playing 3B...a position of dire need for the Braves.

So the Braves lost a year of control of their franchise SS to win a couple games that ultimately made them miss out on drafting a guy that will likely put up an .800 OPS and 15+ HRs at 3B starting in 2019. Outstanding!

But hey, Coppy is a genius, so it will all be OK.
 
Enscheff said:
The mindset of this FO is very frustrating.

They promoted Swanson to start his service clock, and now the Braves can't leave him in AAA for a couple weeks to gain an extra year of control.

Having Swanson on the roster likely caused the Braves to be just good enough to miss out on Senzel, who posted a .329/.415/.567 line with 7 HRs over 250 PAs in A ball after being drafted. All while playing 3B...a position of dire need for the Braves.

So the Braves lost a year of control of their franchise SS to win a couple games that ultimately made them miss out on drafting a guy that will likely put up an .800 OPS and 15+ HRs at 3B starting in 2019. Outstanding!

But hey, Coppy is a genius, so it will all be OK.
Click to expand...

Uh.........

For someone who constantly destroys people for not bringing phenomenal arguments...that's a pretty phenomenally dumb post.
 
Enscheff said:
The mindset of this FO is very frustrating.

They promoted Swanson to start his service clock, and now the Braves can't leave him in AAA for a couple weeks to gain an extra year of control.

Having Swanson on the roster likely caused the Braves to be just good enough to miss out on Senzel, who posted a .329/.415/.567 line with 7 HRs over 250 PAs in A ball after being drafted. All while playing 3B...a position of dire need for the Braves.

So the Braves lost a year of control of their franchise SS to win a couple games that ultimately made them miss out on drafting a guy that will likely put up an .800 OPS and 15+ HRs at 3B starting in 2019. Outstanding!

But hey, Coppy is a genius, so it will all be OK.
Click to expand...

The Senzel draft was from the 2015 season results. Swanson wasn't on the squad then.

But who knows who it will cost us in this upcoming draft
 
sturg33 said:
The Senzel draft was from the 2015 season results. Swanson wasn't on the squad then.

But who knows who it will cost us in this upcoming draft
Click to expand...

I think the big downside of the extra wins is pool size. We'll still get a good player, but we won't have as much flexibility to get creative.
 
50PoundHead said:
I think the big downside of the extra wins is pool size. We'll still get a good player, but we won't have as much flexibility to get creative.
Click to expand...

You're right... but I'm not sure I want them to be able to get creative after what they did last year - which I did not like
 
thethe said:
This analysis has great value but the degree of certainty in these outcomes is misplaced.
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It's called probability. Baseball is unique in that literally anything can happen regardless of actual talent level due to the small sample size that even one full season can be. But the odds of players like Kemp and Phillips, for example, playing like their younger selves aren't very high. We went through this in 2015 when you thought the Braves were so good the first couple of months before reality crashed down around you.
 
Enscheff said:
The mindset of this FO is very frustrating.

They promoted Swanson to start his service clock, and now the Braves can't leave him in AAA for a couple weeks to gain an extra year of control.

Having Swanson on the roster likely caused the Braves to be just good enough to miss out on Senzel, who posted a .329/.415/.567 line with 7 HRs over 250 PAs in A ball after being drafted. All while playing 3B...a position of dire need for the Braves.

So the Braves lost a year of control of their franchise SS to win a couple games that ultimately made them miss out on drafting a guy that will likely put up an .800 OPS and 15+ HRs at 3B starting in 2019. Outstanding!

But hey, Coppy is a genius, so it will all be OK.
Click to expand...

Can't even get the correct years in line? Ouch...
 
There are a a few guys that could go anywhere in the top 5 and 3 of them are position prospects. I hope that's the route we go. I'm tired of taking all pitching.
 
zbhargrove said:
Can't even get the correct years in line? Ouch...
Click to expand...

Right, it was a mixup to say the Swanson promotion cost the team Senzel. I suppose that error makes me as stupid as the guy who thought the Braves were going to trade for Sale.

However, the rest of the sentiment still stands. The Swanson promotion cost them a year of control and a position, or positions, in the upcoming draft.
 
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