Wondering if I'm reading you correctly. From the outside, I think changes made to placate the Freedom Caucus in the House will make it more difficult to pass in the Senate. You might pick up Cruz and Paul, but without somehow curbing millions losing coverage, you don't get any traction on the Dem side (and maybe that's impossible) and you lose any moderate Republicans (if there are any left). I still think it's an overall public relations problem for the Republicans and I believe McConnell, for all his warts, understands that.
I am guessing the House bill will pass today.