MLB Beat the Streak 2016 edition

sturg33 said:
Unless you want to keep picking the same player over and over... picking 2 is no different than picking 1.

Said differently, picking 2 players on Monday is no different than picking one player on Monday and a different player on Tuesday. The advantage is you can work twice as fast and have more attempts throughout the season.
Click to expand...

A couple seasons ago, me and a coworker crunched numbers trying to predict the likelihood of every player in the league getting a hit that day. We looked at platoon splits for pitchers paired with platoon splits for hitters. So if a LHed pitcher had poor platoon numbers against RHed hitters and was facing a RHed hitter that killed LHed pitchers, we took that hitter. If no hitter scored a percentage over 50%, we didn't make a pick that particular day.

Example being a LHed pitcher that allowed a .350 BA against a RHed hitter that hits .380 vs LHed pitchers. Each AB the hitter has a 13.3% chance of getting a hit. If he averages 3.8 ABs per game (guys who walk a lot suck in BTS), his "hit probability" is 50.54%.

Highest we got was a streak of 26. Complete waste of time.

Now I just pick 2 hitters who bat in the top 3-4 slots of the lineup with a platoon advantage that day. I still can't crack the mid-20s.

It's all luck, so the key is to get as many chances as possible...always make 2 picks per day.
 
Forgot to pick yesterday so still at 4. Picked Seager going against Cahill of the Padres and Miguel Cabrera vs James Shields of the white sox for today.
 
Goldschmidt (5-9 vs Moore) and Gordon (6-14 vs Roark).

Another good choice I considered was Altuve (3-9 vs Paxton), but I read a lot about Paxton making huge improvements this spring. Plus, I already rode the Altuve train 2 days in a row.
 
At 5 since Tigers postponed. Felt like if I repicked it would be a loser and I would end up regretting repicking. So today I go with Cabrera against Shields again. I am going to try and not rush things this year. This game has a way of quickly driving me crazy. As a rule I try and stay away from picking Braves, its already frustrating enough to watch a scrub completely shut us down.
 
Enscheff said:
I hate Paul Goldschmidt.

Back on the Altuve train for me. And what the hell, Inciarte vs Harvey.
Click to expand...

I like Ender today.. but went with FF.. I am wavering still.. Ender is due to break out.. but FF has to atone for his crap performance last night. FF doesn't have strong numbers against Harvey however.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I like Ender today.. but went with FF.. I am wavering still.. Ender is due to break out.. but FF has to atone for his crap performance last night. FF doesn't have strong numbers against Harvey however.
Click to expand...

Kemp now has a 1.300 OPS. With this added protection, Freeman should be due to go on a hot streak.
 
Tigers getting spanked by White Sox. Miggy got pulled earlier and was 0-3. Such a crock.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top