Braves and the strategy to go young

S

smootness

It's OVER 5,000!
After reading through the blurb about Acuna that rico posted on the other thread (thanks, rico!), I wanted to check something. We know the Braves believe in youth, even relatively when comparing guys at the same level. For example, we know part of the reason they loved guys like Allard, Soroka, and Anderson was because they were younger than most of the rest of their draft class. And they've also been aggressive in promotions. But I wanted to look at each league in the minors and see where our guys stacked up with the rest of the league:

AAA - International League:

Albies is the youngest player in the league, and the youngest in all of AAA. He's also younger than anybody in the Eastern League in AA and younger than all but 3 players in all of AA, two of whom are...

AA - Southern League:

Allard and Soroka are the two youngest players in the league, and the two youngest players in all of AA.

A+ - Florida State League:

Acuna, Sanchez, and Riley are the three youngest players in the league. Acuna is the 3rd youngest in all of A+, Sanchez and Riley are also among the 10 youngest in all of A+, and Alejandro Salazar is the 8th youngest in the FSL.

A - South Atlantic League:

Pache, Cruz, and Anderson are the 2nd, 4th, and 10th youngest players in the league, respectively.

It's just interesting to note this clear valuation of youth and the ability of players to hold their own while being younger than just about anybody else they're playing against. Personally, I like that they are being intentional in doing this. Success at a very young age at each level is highly correlated with success later, and I like that we're pushing our guys to adapt sooner. And the early returns on guys like Albies, Soroka, Allard, and Anderson are extremely positive. Acuna is starting to turn it around as well, and we forget that Sanchez is still really young and has plenty of time to figure it out. His start yesterday is promising.
 
the team deserves credit for correctly judging that Albies, Allard and Soroka could skip high A even though they were very young...on the negative side of the ledger is the premature promotion of Swanson
 
nsacpi said:
the team deserves credit for correctly judging that Albies, Allard and Soroka could skip high A even though they were very young...on the negative side of the ledger is the premature promotion of Swanson
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There are two different discussions there: the negative financial/control consequences of promoting him earlier, and the effect on him as a player.

The negative financial/control consequences will always be there, and we can discuss whether that was the best strategy forever. I think the jury is still very much out on whether it had any negative effects on him as a player. His play last year seemed to indicate he was ready, and his play this year so far is almost entirely about bad luck.
 
smootness said:
There are two different discussions there: the negative financial/control consequences of promoting him earlier, and the effect on him as a player.

The negative financial/control consequences will always be there, and we can discuss whether that was the best strategy forever. I think the jury is still very much out on whether it had any negative effects on him as a player. His play last year seemed to indicate he was ready, and his play this year so far is almost entirely about bad luck.
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is there any way to prove negative consequences from aggressive promotion...how could you establish such a thing
 
for what it is worth. Rome is the youngest team in the Sally league. Not sure about A ball across the board. Probably close if not.
 
smootness said:
Huh? The one where you said "on the negative side of the ledger is the premature promotion of Swanson"?
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ah got it...well I didn't say there were negative consequences to Swanson's development...the negative consequences I had in mind accrue to the club in that instance
 
nsacpi said:
ah got it...well I didn't say there were negative consequences to Swanson's development...the negative consequences I had in mind accrue to the club in that instance
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Gotcha. Ok, that's why I was saying there were two different discussions. But I'm not sure that was really part of their plan to go young and promote aggressively. For that, I'm really talking about the minor leagues. You could certainly argue that by promoting aggressively, we are setting in motion a process designed to get guys to the majors quicker and get their clock started sooner. Which could be viewed as a negative consequence of the strategy. But I like the strategy overall, and if the biggest issue is that more guys are coming up at 20 and 21 instead of 22 and 23, I'm ok with it.
 
smootness said:
Gotcha. Ok, that's why I was saying there were two different discussions. But I'm not sure that was really part of their plan to go young and promote aggressively. For that, I'm really talking about the minor leagues. You could certainly argue that by promoting aggressively, we are setting in motion a process designed to get guys to the majors quicker and get their clock started sooner. Which could be viewed as a negative consequence of the strategy. But I like the strategy overall, and if the biggest issue is that more guys are coming up at 20 and 21 instead of 22 and 23, I'm ok with it.
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The "Albies schedule" is one that I like for very talented prospects. It gives them significant time in AA and AAA before promotion to the majors.
 
msstate7 said:
Wonder how aggressive they'll be maitan
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They could have put him on the Rome roster. I believe in a small number of cases, other teams have started the minor league careers of exceptionally talented international signings at full season A ball.
 
nsacpi said:
They could have put him on the Rome roster. I believe in a small number of cases, other teams have started the minor league careers of exceptionally talented international signings at full season A ball.
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I'm not sure about that. I don't know of anyone in the last decade or more that has begun in full-season A-ball.

Miguel Sano spent his entire first year in the Dominican Summer League and then the Gulf Coast League and then spent his entire second year in the Appalachian League before hitting A-ball at 19. Miguel Cabrera spent his first season in the Gulf Coast League and then 8 games in short-season A-ball before hitting A-ball in his second year at 18. And if those guys didn't start in A-ball, it's hard to think of anyone who would have.

Starting a guy in the GCL is actually considered pretty aggressive for international signings, like we did with Albies and Acuna and will almost certainly do with Maitan and probably several other guys we just signed.

I think there is a slim chance, if he completely kills it, that Maitan gets a very short stint in Rome before the end of the year. But I would consider that pretty unlikely. Starting him there would have been unprecedented as far as I know and pretty reckless.
 
Looks like Julio Urias pitched in full season class A in 2013 as a 16 year old. His professional debut was May 25 with the Great Lakes Loons of the Midwest League.

More recently I believe some position prospects have also made their debuts at the full season A ball level, but their names escape me at the moment.
 
smootness said:
There are two different discussions there: the negative financial/control consequences of promoting him earlier, and the effect on him as a player.

The negative financial/control consequences will always be there, and we can discuss whether that was the best strategy forever. I think the jury is still very much out on whether it had any negative effects on him as a player. His play last year seemed to indicate he was ready, and his play this year so far is almost entirely about bad luck.
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That's not true at all. Last year there were certain red flags about his offensive ability. 383 BABIP. Obviously unsustainable. Hit 300 last year due to it but the 23% K rate was not good for someone you expect to make contact.

9% BB rate was nice but a closer look would show that was inflated due to him hitting 8th. Take out the 5 IBB and he drops to 5.5%. And that's not counting the times he was pitched around without standing up which is hard to track. He's at 2.7% right now.

I had mentioned those things at the end of last year when talking about his offense going forward. And now looking back it was clear the book got out on Swanson quick about the slider. I wasn't made aware of this until I read that one article a week or so ago but the numbers show that opposing teams already knew.

As far as his struggles this year being almost entirely bad luck. I couldn't disagree more. Bad luck isn't causing him to get pissed on by sliders. It isn't causing him to walk at such a horrible rate.

Yeah the 173 BABIP is horrible and you would expect that to go up. His xBABIP is 273 so while that would improve his numbers it would give him a line of roughly 222/243/277. Better? Yes. Cure for all his problems? Not even close.
 
There are 2 lines of thinking when it comes to promoting guys early:

1. Guys will have to make adjustments to the MLB level eventually, and the ones that are talented/smart enough to do it will figure it out.

2. Guys learn from succeeding against lower level competition before being challenged at the MLB level.

There is anecdotal evidence about guys failing and succeeding while following both lines of thinking. Thames is the most recent success story of a guy getting reps against lesser competition and (apparently) improving dramatically enough that he has success at the MLB level after largely failing early in his career. I am of the opinion there simply no way to tell who will make the transition to MLB and who won't so give the kids a shot when they've earned it and when the team needs it.

The downside to promoting a guy too aggressively in the minors is pretty small since it can be remedied with a demotion that costs the team nothing. Promoting a guy to MLB too early can have fairly significant consequences for the team as it starts their service clock, and sending them down burns an option year.

So if you are going to call a guy up to MLB early, it better be worth it. Having Heyward on the opening day roster was worth it because the Braves were competitive. Having Swanson on the roster to end a 68 win season and to start another guaranteed non-competitive season is pure stupidity...and it has absolutely nothing to do with his stat line or his ability to adjust to the MLB level.
 
thewupk said:
That's not true at all. Last year there were certain red flags about his offensive ability. 383 BABIP. Obviously unsustainable. Hit 300 last year due to it but the 23% K rate was not good for someone you expect to make contact.

9% BB rate was nice but a closer look would show that was inflated due to him hitting 8th. Take out the 5 IBB and he drops to 5.5%. And that's not counting the times he was pitched around without standing up which is hard to track. He's at 2.7% right now.

I had mentioned those things at the end of last year when talking about his offense going forward. And now looking back it was clear the book got out on Swanson quick about the slider. I wasn't made aware of this until I read that one article a week or so ago but the numbers show that opposing teams already knew.

As far as his struggles this year being almost entirely bad luck. I couldn't disagree more. Bad luck isn't causing him to get pissed on by sliders. It isn't causing him to walk at such a horrible rate.

Yeah the 173 BABIP is horrible and you would expect that to go up. His xBABIP is 273 so while that would improve his numbers it would give him a line of roughly 222/243/277. Better? Yes. Cure for all his problems? Not even close.
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The question is whether he is better off learning to hit the slider in AAA or the majors. On that question I am agnostic.

On the question of whether the Braves would be better off with a young player learning to hit the slider in AAA or the majors, I am emphatically not agnostic.
 
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