GDT 5/2/17: Braves vs. Mets
- Thread starter UNCBlue012
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Assuming it is not a rhetorical question on your part, I highly recommend that you make your own analysis and share your conclusions with us. I sincerely believe you would benefit from the exercise.
msstate7
Well-known member
My analysis is that's it's SSS. If next week it drops to 27th, it's an accurate depiction
Sounds accurate.
That our position players are playing over their heads which should be obvious.
Still believing at the very least the braves will have a bad offense?
I do. One month isn't going to change that.
3 months but whose counting?
Apparently you are. Braves are 6th in the NL in team WRC+ which is good overall. 12th in BB%. 12th in ISO. 2nd in lowest K%. 3rd in BABIP. Offense is mainly being fueld by putting the ball in play (it's 2015 all over again!) and having hits fall in way above average. I suspect that will drop throughout the rest of the season. If the BB and ISO stay at the same level the Braves level of offense will be in the bottom 3rd of the league by the end of the year.
Fair enough. When would there be enough of a sample size for you to reconsider?
Probably the all-star break. If the Braves ride the BABIP train till then even a return to normalcy for the rest of the season would still result in a non crappy offense for the whole season.
Southcack77
Well-known member
The Braves BABIP is .310 despite having had several players start a lot worse than you would expect. The league average is .300, which would be ok. .310 is generally good for about fifth or sixth in MLB, which isn't a huge outlier. Quite possible it's sustainable, but if not I doubt it will regress all the way to below average.
The Braves may have a low walk rate, but they also have one of MLB's best K rates. In essence they are putting the ball in play at a very high rate. Again, you would not expect that to regress to below average.
Seems like the Braves offense figures to be average minus big regression plus continued futility from some guys who have hit better.
I believe that you were ok with using the first week or two as a sample size.
there really is no reason to think the Braves offense won't be competent absent injury or trade, which are both very possible scenarios. In fact, injury is probably likely and would be the best explanation for why the Braves offense slips to below average this season. Atlanta has a number of competent major league hitters who may be post prime, but have not fallen off the earth just yet. Usually, its injury that stops those kind of guys from performing to prime.
The offense is doing very well so far because the guys are out there protecting each other and it shows.
Southcack77
Well-known member
the more pretty good hitter you have in a lineup the more likely you are to string together hits.
Braves BABIP after All Star break last year was .328.
The concept of protection is pretty clear. If you believe the 8th hitter is pitched around in the NL then you believe in protection.
I predicted we'd have a roughly average offense this year, and I still believe that will be the case. Freeman, Flowers, and Kemp will slow down, but Dansby will pick it up quite a bit and we'll end up with something better out of Adonis' spot, either through him improving or Albies taking his spot.
Eh. I think it happens on extreme ends (like if you put Adonis behind him, Freddie would probably see fewer good pitches). But even then, I don't think it's a huge impact. And once you're picking between solid hitters and good hitters, I don't think it really affects anything. I don't think a pitcher is thinking, 'Man, I need to make sure I give Freeman something better to hit because I don't want to pitch to Kemp.'
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Assuming we can agree on what the terms average, above average and below average might be, I think it is fairly likely that the Braves will be an average team in the NL in terms of runs scored.
Above Average: Ranks in the top 5 in the NL
Average: Ranks 6-10 in the NL
Below Average: Ranks in the bottom 5 in the NL
Above Average: Ranks in the top 5 in the NL
Average: Ranks 6-10 in the NL
Below Average: Ranks in the bottom 5 in the NL
striker42
Well-known member
I agree with this. Absent a critical injury, I think our offense should end up being fairly average. We have one of the best hitters in the game in Freeman, a good leadoff man in Inciarte, and some competent (if not perfect) bats in Markakis, Kemp, and Phillips. Flowers is at least average as far as catchers go. Allowing for poor contributions from third and short, the offense should balance out around average.
Honestly, an average offense paired with an average starting staff should keep us in the fight for a .500 record, especially if we can fix the pen a bit. While that's not a team in "contention" it is at least a competitive team.
Yeah, I think that's about right.