Wait a minute. I thought 50% of the game was 90% mental.... or is it the other way around?
GDT 5/2/17: Braves vs. Mets
- Thread starter UNCBlue012
- Start date
Wait a minute. I thought 50% of the game was 90% mental.... or is it the other way around?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
how did Freddie do during Kemp's recent stint on th DL or in the month before Kemp was traded for
msstate7
Well-known member
FF is great no matter what. I have no idea what the actual numbers are though with KEMvP and without. I thought you had them
You'd have to look at our individual hitters and their normal BABIP. You can't just compare across the league and regress ours to that. Freeman, for example, has proven he can maintain a high BABIP, in the .350-.370 range. So his current .381 number, while high, does not appear to be abnormally so. Kemp is at .364, but his career BABIP is also higher than the average player. So the Braves' normalized BABIP may be higher than the league average.
It didn't make Freeman and MVP hitter.
By random spots I am talking about how people claimed Freeman got better when Kemp came over. That's random and anecdotal. You aren't going to get better pitches to hit based on who is behind you. That's really not that logical.
msstate7
Well-known member
If it's 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs and Phillips is hitting in a 3-1 count with FF on deck, do you think he gets pitched the same if say it's same situation with FF batting and Swanson on deck?
So why intentionally walk the 8th hitter to face the pitcher some times?
Pitching has been tough and the play of Swanson/Garcia has been tough.
Freeman I give the benefit of the doubt to. He's improved as a hitter the past year and is one of the best hitters in the game. The others? They are getting lucky to varying degrees. A few notables.
Phillips: 356 compared to 296 for his career
Markakis: 380 compared to 317
FlowerS: 500 compared to 329
Peterson: 350 to 293
My opinion is that overall the Braves have had some luck in that department. You could be right that they run high on the BABIP overall as a group. I guess we will see how it shakes out.
I don't think either is going to get fastballs grooved down the middle if that's what you are asking. Even bad MLB hitters will hit those hard.
Because you are talking about the 1 extreme in baseball where a hitter can constantly get pitched around in some situations. That does not apply to the rest of the lineup.
msstate7
Well-known member
I think Phillips gets a pitch in the strike zone and FF gets one out of the zone or a free pass
Southcack77
Well-known member
I'm going to say Suntrust will not end up being the second best hitter's park in the NL.
Yeah, but you also have to account for Dansby, whose BABIP is obviously way low, and Adonis, whose is likely lower than normal. Ender's is also around .320+ for his career and is currently .271.
You're right, we'll have to see where we end up, and our year-end number may be above or below where you would expect it to be as well. But considering that Freeman and Kemp have both sustained BABIPs well above .300, Markakis, Flowers, and Inciarte have maintained BABIPs comfortably above .300, and the careers (both minor and major) of Adonis and Dansby indicate they are likely at least .300 BABIP guys, it's tough to say that our BABIP will normalize to .290.
Isn't that likely to happen in general based on the hitters they are? Phillips, while on a hot streak, isn't a good hitter. He can and will get himself out on pitches in the zone. Freeman is one of the best hitters in baseball. Pitches in the zone he will do damage on. Best to try and get him to chase stuff.
I think it's more likely than the opposite. League wide BABIP is down and it should get closer to .300 before the season is over. I suspect the Braves team BABIP will be with 10 points of the league average. That would be a decrease of 10 points from where it currently is in relation to the league mark. May not seem like much but it does have a pretty big impact on offense.
Again the main concerns for me is the teams BB% and ISO. Those together correlate highly with offense and the Braves are in the bottom third in that dept.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Per fangraphs the league wide BABIP is generally .300 in a given season, which correlates with how the teams have finished in the rankings of BABIP over the years, so that seems right.
You are adjusting the Braves BABIP down to at much below the MLB average as they are above it currently. A .290 BABIP would have rated 26th in the majors last season. Considering they would need to be a good bit below .290 to finish the season there --- eyeballing the math maybe something like .285-.288 you would be predicting them to have a bottom three BABIP the rest of the way, which really doesn't make a whole lot of sense considering all of the information about this incarnation of the Braves lineup suggests they are above average on ball in play in what looks about like a half season.
I don't agree with your assumptions.
We know that BABIP can be a skill. I don't see much to suggest that this is a bottom third offense until injuries kick in or trades. I would expect any cooling off would be offset by Inciarte, Swanson, Garcia heating up (two of which seems to be in progress).
Maybe...maybe not. I think it's Fulton County Stadium 2.0