Kemp and the Quest for 1 bWAR

thewupk said:
Another thing of note is that park factors for Sun Trust are finally kicking in. Kemp has a 997 OPS but only a 155 OPS+ whereas Corey Dickerson of the Rays has a 942 OPS with a 162 OPS+. Raw OPS numbers in Atlanta are going to be inflated. Something to keep in mind.
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Hasn't most of KEMvP's damage been on the road?
 
Did anyone see his interview with Kelsey last night. That was strange.. KEMvP looked like he had to poop and need to leave right away. And I hate the canned answers.. X player pitched great, we hit well as a team.. complete team win tonight.. Just for once be real. "yeah, I kicked butt tonight. hopefully I saved some for tomorrow."
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Did anyone see his interview with Kelsey last night. That was strange.. KEMvP looked like he had to poop and need to leave right away. And I hate the canned answers.. X player pitched great, we hit well as a team.. complete team win tonight.. Just for once be real. "yeah, I kicked butt tonight. hopefully I saved some for tomorrow."
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being a poor interviewee does not detract from his greatness as a player...there is enough irrelevant information around here without you introducing more
 
nsacpi said:
being a poor interviewee does not detract from his greatness as a player...there is enough irrelevant information around here without you introducing more
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Just getting started today. I am going to go full Jeopardy irrelevant!! But I still think he just had to poop..
 
thewupk said:
Excellent? We'll see how his numbers shake out when his BABIP isn't above 400. He's probably going to end up in the 120-125 WRC+ range offensively is about what I expected.
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Yeah, but that's an accrual of incremental improvement in a number of areas. 5% better on swinging at pitches outside the zone. 5% better at hitting line drives. 5% less ground balls. He's not going to BABiP what he is currently but he's a way better hitter than a lot of guys give him credit for.
 
thewupk said:
Offensive stats use the same weighted runs formula as defensive stats do.

As far as %'s of balls caught and whatnot. Let's look at what Statcast has to say about fly balls caught by some LF's this year.

5 Star Ranking Breakdown:

5 Star: 0 - 25%, 4 Star: 26 - 50%, 3 Star: 51 - 75%, 2 Star: 76 - 90%, 1 Star: 91 - 95%

Duvall: 0/2 Five Stars - 4/6 four Stars - 3/4 Three Stars - 4/5 Two Stars - 7/7 - One Star

Kemp: 0/4 Five Stars - 0/4 four Stars - 1/2 Three Stars - 2/2 Two Stars - 6/6 - One Star

Melky: 0/8 Five Stars - 0/0 four Stars - 1/6 Three Stars - 4/4 Two Stars - 12/12 - One Star

Upton: 0/2 Five Stars - 2/5 four Stars - 2/3 Three Stars - 7/7 Two Stars - 5/5 - One Star

Gardner: 0/4 Five Stars - 3/4 four Stars - 2/2 Three Stars - 4/4 Two Stars - 4/4 - One Star

Tomas: 0/4 Five Stars - 0/1 four Stars - 0/0 Three Stars - 3/7 Two Stars - 3/4 - One Star

Now here are their DRS numbers

Duvall: +2

Kemp: -3

Melky: -2

Upton: +4

Gardner: +5

Tomas: -5

A couple of things of note. Statcats numbers are just on flyballs caught. DRS numbers include cutting balls off in the gap and ranks a players arm as well. And the main difference between those left fielders considered good and those who are bad lie in the balls that are considered 3 and 4 Stars. So balls that are caught 25-75% of the time. Good outfielders will generally have caught some in the 26-50% range and catch over 50% in the 50-75% range. Those who are bad don't catch any in the 26-50% range and usually half or less in the 50-75% range.

You may disagree that only a handful of plays can determine who a good fielder or bad fielder is. But you have to realize that is also just takes a few hits to determine who a good or bad hitter is as well.
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This is interesting and it also lines up exactly with the Inside Edge stats that are a precursor to Statcast.

So let me ax you a question. Honest question. What this is saying is that he's made every routine or slightly tougher play (28 routine plays on Inside Edge, so this must be behind). He made half the 50/50 plays, as he should. None of the highlight plays.

How is he a terrible fielder? That data you cited and all the opinions and stats don't add up to that. There aren't even those couple of plays that differentiate him from an average fielder. He is, almost by definition if those stats are correct, an average fielder.

I don't think he saves any runs with his glove, but I don't understand how "average" equates to negative UZR and DRS. If you told me he's X oWAR and 0.0 dWAR, contributes nothing more than average with the glove, I'd say "OK."

But I don't see how a guy who gets to everything he should and nothing more is negative. Is this the positional adjustment thing? Sorry, I don't mean to be dense.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
This is interesting and it also lines up exactly with the Inside Edge stats that are a precursor to Statcast.

So let me ax you a question. Honest question. What this is saying is that he's made every routine or slightly tougher play (28 routine plays on Inside Edge, so this must be behind). He made half the 50/50 plays, as he should. None of the highlight plays.

How is he a terrible fielder? That data you cited and all the opinions and stats don't add up to that. There aren't even those couple of plays that differentiate him from an average fielder. He is, almost by definition if those stats are correct, an average fielder.

I don't think he saves any runs with his glove, but I don't understand how "average" equates to negative UZR and DRS. If you told me he's X oWAR and 0.0 dWAR, contributes nothing more than average with the glove, I'd say "OK."

But I don't see how a guy who gets to everything he should and nothing more is negative. Is this the positional adjustment thing? Sorry, I don't mean to be dense.
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thewupk literally answered your question in the post you quoted. Maybe you should re-read it?
 
thewupk said:
Offensive stats use the same weighted runs formula as defensive stats do.

As far as %'s of balls caught and whatnot. Let's look at what Statcast has to say about fly balls caught by some LF's this year.

5 Star Ranking Breakdown:

5 Star: 0 - 25%, 4 Star: 26 - 50%, 3 Star: 51 - 75%, 2 Star: 76 - 90%, 1 Star: 91 - 95%

Duvall: 0/2 Five Stars - 4/6 four Stars - 3/4 Three Stars - 4/5 Two Stars - 7/7 - One Star

Kemp: 0/4 Five Stars - 0/4 four Stars - 1/2 Three Stars - 2/2 Two Stars - 6/6 - One Star

Melky: 0/8 Five Stars - 0/0 four Stars - 1/6 Three Stars - 4/4 Two Stars - 12/12 - One Star

Upton: 0/2 Five Stars - 2/5 four Stars - 2/3 Three Stars - 7/7 Two Stars - 5/5 - One Star

Gardner: 0/4 Five Stars - 3/4 four Stars - 2/2 Three Stars - 4/4 Two Stars - 4/4 - One Star

Tomas: 0/4 Five Stars - 0/1 four Stars - 0/0 Three Stars - 3/7 Two Stars - 3/4 - One Star

Now here are their DRS numbers

Duvall: +2

Kemp: -3

Melky: -2

Upton: +4

Gardner: +5

Tomas: -5

A couple of things of note. Statcats numbers are just on flyballs caught. DRS numbers include cutting balls off in the gap and ranks a players arm as well. And the main difference between those left fielders considered good and those who are bad lie in the balls that are considered 3 and 4 Stars. So balls that are caught 25-75% of the time. Good outfielders will generally have caught some in the 26-50% range and catch over 50% in the 50-75% range. Those who are bad don't catch any in the 26-50% range and usually half or less in the 50-75% range.

You may disagree that only a handful of plays can determine who a good fielder or bad fielder is. But you have to realize that is also just takes a few hits to determine who a good or bad hitter is as well.
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Good breakdown

I think kemp looks like he is pulling a small piano when he moves in the of. And his arm is not great. I think it's obvious he's below avg.

I just don't see him as that negative especially compared to his offense. The defensive stats just don't matter as much to me.

I read klaws book. He says most teams agree with the direction of the public d stats but the value they place on it is very different. They use the statscast data to have their own formulas
 
GovClintonTyree said:
This is interesting and it also lines up exactly with the Inside Edge stats that are a precursor to Statcast.

So let me ax you a question. Honest question. What this is saying is that he's made every routine or slightly tougher play (28 routine plays on Inside Edge, so this must be behind). He made half the 50/50 plays, as he should. None of the highlight plays.

How is he a terrible fielder? That data you cited and all the opinions and stats don't add up to that. There aren't even those couple of plays that differentiate him from an average fielder. He is, almost by definition if those stats are correct, an average fielder.

I don't think he saves any runs with his glove, but I don't understand how "average" equates to negative UZR and DRS. If you told me he's X oWAR and 0.0 dWAR, contributes nothing more than average with the glove, I'd say "OK."

But I don't see how a guy who gets to everything he should and nothing more is negative. Is this the positional adjustment thing? Sorry, I don't mean to be dense.
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I wouldn't say this data is behind on the routine plays it's just that it doesn't track. Notice the 1 Star players (essentially routine) only go up to 95% probability. The 95-100% isn't accounted for because they are literally cans of corn. Inside edge does account for those which is why that number is so much higher.

Again the difference in the plays that are caught 26-75% of the time. That is essentially the middle ground. Plays that aren't superman type catches or plays that even you or I could make. Justin Upton for example has caught 4 out of 8 in that range. Gardner has caught 5 out of 6. Those two rate positively so far this year. Kemp has caught 1 of 5. Melky 1 of 6. Those are some of the poorer defenders so far this year.

It's a handful of plays but that's all it really takes. The sample size is obviously small for defense. It's why people say it takes 3 years worth of data to equate 1 year worth of hitting data. And also why an elite hitter is 3 times as valuable as his elite defensive counterpart as far as WAR goes.

You may not think Kemp's play is anything but average. But compare what he's done (either via statcast or inside the edge) and line it up against the other full-time left fielders. I would bet you anything Kemp is going to be close to the bottom of the list. Even with him catching most everything that is routine.
 
Russ2dollas said:
Good breakdown

I think kemp looks like he is pulling a small piano when he moves in the of. And his arm is not great. I think it's obvious he's below avg.

I just don't see him as that negative especially compared to his offense. The defensive stats just don't matter as much to me.

I read klaws book. He says most teams agree with the direction of the public d stats but the value they place on it is very different. They use the statscast data to have their own formulas
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I'm sure each team values defense differently. Some don't put much emphasis on it (I feel the Braves are this way) and there are some teams that do (I feels the Cubs do for example). Hopefully at some point we will get a better understanding of it. I do feel the new statcast data is a huge step in the right direction.

In regards to Kemp being a negative. It's obvious that so far this year he is not. But his time in San Diego (for whatever reason) was not good at all. Below average defender and average hitter to me equals a below average player. And his WAR numbers brought that out. It would show the same thing here if he was hitting at the level he did in San Diego. Thankfully he is hitting quite a bit better than that.
 
You guys are getting too deep. KEMvP is hitting .348 with an ops of .997.

Gotta think if you add that .997 ops to FF's 1.211 that's amoung the best in MLB 3-4 hitters. Zimmerman and Harper have to be the best
 
Russ2dollas said:
Good breakdown

I think kemp looks like he is pulling a small piano when he moves in the of. And his arm is not great. I think it's obvious he's below avg.

I just don't see him as that negative especially compared to his offense. The defensive stats just don't matter as much to me.

I read klaws book. He says most teams agree with the direction of the public d stats but the value they place on it is very different. They use the statscast data to have their own formulas
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That's kinda what I've suggested a time or two - essentially weighting the defensive component less than the formulas currently do. But it hasn't been well received here.
 
thewupk said:
I wouldn't say this data is behind on the routine plays it's just that it doesn't track. Notice the 1 Star players (essentially routine) only go up to 95% probability. The 95-100% isn't accounted for because they are literally cans of corn. Inside edge does account for those which is why that number is so much higher.

Again the difference in the plays that are caught 26-75% of the time. That is essentially the middle ground. Plays that aren't superman type catches or plays that even you or I could make. Justin Upton for example has caught 4 out of 8 in that range. Gardner has caught 5 out of 6. Those two rate positively so far this year. Kemp has caught 1 of 5. Melky 1 of 6. Those are some of the poorer defenders so far this year.

It's a handful of plays but that's all it really takes. The sample size is obviously small for defense. It's why people say it takes 3 years worth of data to equate 1 year worth of hitting data. And also why an elite hitter is 3 times as valuable as his elite defensive counterpart as far as WAR goes.

You may not think Kemp's play is anything but average. But compare what he's done (either via statcast or inside the edge) and line it up against the other full-time left fielders. I would bet you anything Kemp is going to be close to the bottom of the list. Even with him catching most everything that is routine.
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That's a bit too broad of a range. Kemp is 50-50 on the 50-50 balls and 0-4 on the 26-50 balls that's an important distinction. You're lumping the 26% balls in with the 75% balls, and if Upton (who really isn't much better, IMO) got more 51-75 balls, that means he caught more easy balls that Kemp may well have gotten to also.

So let's say it's 3 balls different and we're at the quarter pole. Now it's a valuation question, right? Is each ball a run? Just thinking about it, I wouldn't imagine that it's that much. Some fraction, most likely.

I just can't see that it makes that much difference. You have a choice, you take the better fielder, sure. But if his wRC+ is 159, I'm not inclined to quibble over defense. His position is Bat.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
That's a bit too broad of a range. Kemp is 50-50 on the 50-50 balls and 0-4 on the 26-50 balls that's an important distinction. You're lumping the 26% balls in with the 75% balls, and if Upton (who really isn't much better, IMO) got more 51-75 balls, that means he caught more easy balls that Kemp may well have gotten to also.

So let's say it's 3 balls different and we're at the quarter pole. Now it's a valuation question, right? Is each ball a run? Just thinking about it, I wouldn't imagine that it's that much. Some fraction, most likely.

I just can't see that it makes that much difference. You have a choice, you take the better fielder, sure. But if his wRC+ is 159, I'm not inclined to quibble over defense. His position is Bat.
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It's a broad range because that's the area where Kemp differs vastly from other LF's who are rated positively. Is each one of those plays worth a run? Well doubles are generally worth 1.27 runs when using it for offense. So yes, I can see how missing 3 plays could equate to costing the team 1-2 runs on defense. And I agree. With a 159 WRC+ it isn't a big deal. He's already +9 runs over a league average hitter so far this year with his bat.
 
Kemp is having a great season at the bat. And is less of a liability in the field than in recent seasons. I think the two add up to about a 2-2.5 WAR season.
 
I really don't get the point of this. You don't buy a rooster for eggs. It's like having a deep discussion on where Inciarte ranks as a homerun hitter.

We know Inciarte is a great defensive player with limited power. We know Kemp is a average at best defender, but can mash the ball.

Sure, there are a few outfielders that hit for power, average and are excellent defenders....we will not be able to afford one unless he's home grown because they are RARE. We couldn't afford Jhey who would be in that category and his hitting comes and goes.

You don't need all quick guys that can cover an acre in 2 seconds and you don't need all big slow power guys (note 80% fall in one category or another). Kemp is what he is, just like Inciarte is what he is.

Kemp was brought in to hit....he's doing better than expected. I never hoped for him to be a stellar defensive guy (that's a pipe dream). He has done better than expected in the field also. Win/Win.
 
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