I realize the posi-Braves don't want to hear it, but since 2011 the Braves have produced the following SPs:
Teheran - 13.1 WAR, may be declining already
Alex Wood - 9.0 WAR, injury plagued career that is likely to continue similarly
Folty - 0.2 WAR, hoping for much more
Shall I list the failed SP prospects in that time frame?
The group of Folty, Wisler, Blair and Jenkins likely only yielded Folty as a legit SP. Prior to that, the group of Teheran, Delgado and Viz yielded only Teheran.
The Braves will be lucky to get 1-2 legit SPs from this Gohara, Allard, Anderson and Soroka group. They will likely get 1-2 more SPs from the lower tier Sims, Newcomb, Fried, Touki, Weigel, Wentz, Muller group. That's not enough SPs to be dealing prospects.
I know, I know, this group is different. Except that it probably isn't, just like none of the other groups before them was different. Gohara has already been shut down for his 2nd arm related injury, so the likelihood of him even reaching the majors is a stretch.
I don't get this argument
The braves agree. They are buying in bulk bc they are saying it's likely they will only really hit on a couple. Maybe some become innings eaters. Maybe a reliever or two.
They have to get them. Develop them. Trade the right ones and keep the right ones. Keep them healthy
Predicting the future is hard
Market for top pitching higher or lower than position players? Also- what is more market efficient paying position players or pitchers on free agency deals?
The argument was that the Braves should trade excess pitching prospects for MLB talent when they want to contend. I stated the Braves aren't likely to produce enough legit SPs at the MLB level to allow them to trade away any prospects.
The discussion then took a turn that shows the Braves are bad at "trading the right ones", considering the best 2 pitchers the Braves have produced since 1995 (Schimdt and Wainwright) were traded away.
You can't just use cumulative war. That's like letting ppl in the Hoffa they got 500 hrs. Even if it took 25 yrs. Bruce Chen would be one that got away with that logic
Tehran minor medlen Hanson beach were all better than Schmidt. Wainwright we goofed. The hof gm goofed. He hit on more than he goofed.
With pitchers some of these guys are going to burn bright and burn out.
You can't just use cumulative war. That's like letting ppl in the Hoffa they got 500 hrs. Even if it took 25 yrs. Bruce Chen would be one that got away with that logic
Tehran minor medlen Hanson beach were all better than Schmidt. Wainwright we goofed. The hof gm goofed. He hit on more than he goofed.
With pitchers some of these guys are going to burn bright and burn out.
OK, let's add in guys before Teheran. Let's include Medlen, Beachy, Minor and Hanson (though that's going pretty far back).
Medlen (2009) - 8.8 WAR, trying to come back from numerous injuries in A ball
Hanson (2009) - 6.8 WAR, peaked as BAs #4 prospect, and hasn't pitched since 2013
Beachy (2010) - 3.1 WAR, hasn't pitched since 2015, all his production came over a 38 start stretch from 2011-2012
Minor (2010) - 4.7 WAR, currently a good BP arm in KC
I'm not sure how that group of guys foretells any better success than the guys I originally listed. I wouldn't consider any of them to be a success story by any means, and I don't think anyone would be happy if the best production we see from the Allard/Gohara/Soroka/Anderson group is one of those guys.
This fallacy that the Braves are some sort of pitcher factory is, quite simply, not true.
Ironically enough, the best pitcher from the Braves system since the HOF Trio was traded away to the Cardinals. Wainwright has produced 34.8 WAR for the Cards...all for a single season of JD Drew.
I don't think anyone has suggested that the Braves were a recent pitching factory.
They've made a concerted effort beginning two years ago to acquire some pitching talent. It might take awhile for that to realize itself. Glavine was drafted in 1984. Smoltz acquired by trade in 1987. Avery was drafted #3 in 1988. Merker #5 in 1988. Pete Smith was a prospect traded for in 1987. Leibrandt acquired by trade in 1989.
The Braves were a last place team in 1990 before starting the run the following season.
It's likely going to take awhile for it work.
I think the Braves, rather than saying that they are outstanding at developing pitching, have said that they believe pitching is the way to build teams and that it takes volume to do that.
But in reality, the Braves run was also fueled by the likes of Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones, Rafael Furcal, Javy Lopez, David Justice, Ron Gant, Ryan Klesko, Blauser, Lemke, and others. Honestly, the Braves arguably were better at identifying hitters.
Didn't hurt they carried a large payroll during the meat of the run.
In the end 15-20 years of contending eventually required a reset. This is it. Hopefully, it won't be too long.
People don't think the Braves are a pitcher factory?
Please explain to me what the phrase "back to the Braves Way" meant, and why the FO used the phrase when describing all the pitching talent they have amassed.
You mean like Craig Biggio and Eddie Murray? There are plenty of people that got in the HOF by constantly being good and occasionally great.
Yes. I don't think they belong in the hof
The bigger question is how many holes do you have to fill at the MLB level with a farm system that is pitching heavy compared to one that is position player heavy.
I respect those that prefer a small hall. Still, those two plus many others have set a precedent that being good and occasionally great for 20 years or so will get you into cooperstown. I do think cumulative WAR works in this instance even if it's spread out over many years. Being able to play stay in MLB for a decade or so even as a role player does have value.
And if Mark Prior and Kerry Wood don't break down, the Cubs might have won a WS a decade earlier.
And if the Mets hadn't suffered so many injuries to their exceptional staff, they would be playoff contenders today.
If, if, if. This is what happens with pitchers, and is why teams like the Astros, Dodgers, Cubs , and now Yankees have been building around position players.
I respect those that prefer a small hall. Still, those two plus many others have set a precedent that being good and occasionally great for 20 years or so will get you into cooperstown. I do think cumulative WAR works in this instance even if it's spread out over many years. Being able to play stay in MLB for a decade or so even as a role player does have value.
Not so unusual among pitchers in the HOF either.
Some would point at Glavine, but Sutton is one.
Great value. Not hof for me
5 war for ten years over 3 war for 20 is ok by me