So Where Are The Fits?

I do

He still has a ton of money on his contract

He still looks like he's pulling a tractor behind him when he runs

It's dh or bust imo. We need an al team who thinks they are a shot away
 
Enscheff said:
Find the last time an AL team in playoff contention traded for a full time DH.
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Didn't say it would happen

Plus I don't think coppy would do it. I think he thinks kemp is a win for him snd the braves can win next year. I think he's keeping kemp and we will be very sorry in 2019
 
Russ2dollas said:
Didn't say it would happen

Plus I don't think coppy would do it. I think he thinks kemp is a win for him snd the braves can win next year. I think he's keeping kemp and we will be very sorry in 2019
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If we were smart and could find a team that would give us the right prospects in exchange for Kemp (with us eating some or most of his contract), that would be win/win. Would give a AL contender a great DH bat for three years and would give us a good return. It would essentially be like us buying prospects.
 
TheBravos said:
If we were smart and could find a team that would give us the right prospects in exchange for Kemp (with us eating some or most of his contract), that would be win/win. Would give a AL contender a great DH bat for three years and would give us a good return. It would essentially be like us buying prospects.
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I agree. I just doubt coppy would do it.

I'd be happy to pay half of the deal if we got a long term answer at corner of, catcher, 3b or sp.

Oliver's was super stupid and it got worse. But turning that 60 million hole into 18-20 months of plus 850 ops and a long term piece for 30 million would be a neat trick
 
thethe said:
Let's assume that Kemp is still posing 950+ by mid July. You still believe the Braves will have to pay to get rid of him?
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Yes. I think they could get something for Kemp if they move him. The guy can still hit. But to get something of relative on-the-field value (likely projected), they would probably have to put a check in his pocket on the way out of town.
 
TheBravos said:
If we were smart and could find a team that would give us the right prospects in exchange for Kemp (with us eating some or most of his contract), that would be win/win. Would give a AL contender a great DH bat for three years and would give us a good return. It would essentially be like us buying prospects.
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Again, find the last time an AL team traded for a full time DH. The Braves were the only team in baseball willing to pay him to play OF, which is why SD traded him to Atlanta. If literally anyone else wanted him, they could have had him.

We saw what no-glove sluggers got this offseason, and it was far less than what Kemp is owed. Kemp has, at best, zero trade value.
 
Enscheff said:
Again, find the last time an AL team traded for a full time DH. The Braves were the only team in baseball willing to pay him to play OF, which is why SD traded him to Atlanta. If literally anyone else wanted him, they could have had him.

We saw what no-glove sluggers got this offseason, and it was far less than what Kemp is owed. Kemp has, at best, zero trade value.
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Either way....Coppy loves him and is still in "win now" mode. He will not trade him. I think if we are half the contract, we could definitely get a return.
 
TheBravos said:
Either way....Coppy loves him and is still in "win now" mode. He will not trade him. I think if we are half the contract, we could definitely get a return.
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I agree that Coppy thinks Kemp is good and will keep him.

However, I doubt even eating half his contract allows them to trade Kemp. That's essentially what SD did to get the Braves to take him...and that was the best offer SD could find. A few months of good hitting hasn't raised his value, no matter what posi-Braves want to think about it.

Forget finding an actual trade for a DH, when was the last time you've ever even heard of a team looking for a full time DH at the deadline? When have you ever seen a list of needs for an AL contender look like "SP, CF, DH"?
 
For Kemp I think you could get a 50 FV prospect if the Braves eat all of the remaining contract. That's about the best that could be expected and even that is pushing it. More likely would be a 45 guy.
 
thewupk said:
For Kemp I think you could get a 50 FV prospect if the Braves eat all of the remaining contract. That's about the best that could be expected and even that is pushing it. More likely would be a 45 guy.
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Assuming, optimistically, that Kemp is a 1-2 WAR player next year and 2019, he should produce 2-4 WAR over the last 2 years of his deal. That means he is worth $16M-$32M. He is owed $36.5M, so carries a surplus value of -$4.5M to -$20.5M (probably closer to the bigger negative number).

Just to give him away, the Braves would likely have to eat $10M-$15M of his contract. A prospect on the border of 45/50 is probably worth about another ~$15M. Add those up, and you're just about in the ballpark with your assessment.
 
Southcack77 said:
His last two teams paid to get rid of him with no return.

He's owed 21 million a year. The braves almost certainly would have to pay to get rid of him, possibly with no return. if so that's the definition of limited trade value.
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No. The Padres got $25 million in return for him. That's trade value, even if there really isn't a player attached to it.

I'm by no mean implying he has any surplus value (i.e., production value that exceeds his contract). I'm positing that the Braves should be in the position to spin him off to another team and eat less money than what they gave up for him at the time of the trade.

He's on our books for $42 million the next two years after 2017. There's no way the Braves could find a team who would eat that whole contract, but there's a chance they could find a team to eat half of it. Two years for 21 million for a .900 OPS DH is good value.
 
chop2chip said:
Texas trading for Beltran last year.
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Good call, let's analyze.

Beltran was owed about $5M at the time of the trade. He was about a 1-2 win player at the time of the trade, so could have been projected to produce another 0.2-0.4 WAR in 2 months, which is worth $1M-$2M. He had a negative surplus value of $3M-$4M. The Yankees had to kick in $2.5M to facilitate the trade, which essentially brought Beltran's surplus value to 0 (odd how that works out, right?).

In exchange the Yankees got Tate (50 FV) and a couple guys that don't even crack their Top 30. The only piece with value was Tate, but that is a lot of value to get in exchange for a player with essentially 0 trade value. It should be noted just how well the Yankees did at the deadline last year.

That is the "contender's premium" teams pay at the deadline because they know they have a good chance of using that player in the playoffs.

So if the Braves find a team in the same situation the Rangers were in last year, they could potentially pay down $10M-$15M of Kemp's salary to get his trade value to 0, and get a low end 50 FV guy like Tate as the return. I seriously doubt Coppy trades Kemp under such a scenario.
 
chop2chip said:
No. The Padres got $25 million in return for him. That's trade value, even if there really isn't a player attached to it.

I'm by no mean implying he has any surplus value (i.e., production value that exceeds his contract). I'm positing that the Braves should be in the position to spin him off to another team and eat less money than what they gave up for him at the time of the trade.

He's on our books for $42 million the next two years after 2017. There's no way the Braves could find a team who would eat that whole contract, but there's a chance they could find a team to eat half of it. Two years for 21 million for a .900 OPS DH is good value.
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I wouldn't say impossible. There are still teams like the orioles

I wouldn't bet on it.

I disagree that nothing has changed since sd. In sd he was expensive and bad. Here he's expensive and he hits. He had no value and now I think he does. I do think we would have to eat money. So it might not be worth eating 75 percent
 
Enscheff said:
Good call, let's analyze.

Beltran was owed about $5M at the time of the trade. He was about a 1-2 win player at the time of the trade, so could have been projected to produce another 0.2-0.4 WAR in 2 months, which is worth $1M-$2M. He had a negative surplus value of $3M-$4M. The Yankees had to kick in $2.5M to facilitate the trade, which essentially brought Beltran's surplus value to 0 (odd how that works out, right?).

In exchange the Yankees got Tate (50 FV) and a couple guys that don't even crack their Top 30. The only piece with value was Tate, but that is a lot of value to get in exchange for a player with essentially 0 trade value. It should be noted just how well the Yankees did at the deadline last year.

That is the "contender's premium" teams pay at the deadline because they know they have a good chance of using that player in the playoffs.

So if the Braves find a team in the same situation the Rangers were in last year, they could potentially pay down $10M-$15M of Kemp's salary to get his trade value to 0, and get a low end 50 FV guy like Tate as the return. I seriously doubt Coppy trades Kemp under such a scenario.
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Good analysis.

I think wRC+ is a better metric to use as a baseline here rather than WAR, since we are discussing two players that are obvious DH types (granted this ignores base running, but there isn't really a negligible difference between Beltran and Kemp in that department).

Beltran during 2016 pre-Texas trade had a 135 wRC+. Kemp has a 160 wRC+, though I expect this to be closer to Beltran's as the year moves along.

Still, I think Kemp has the better bat, so I would expect his trade value to be a little higher than Beltran. If the Braves kick in $16 million, that essentially represents the amount they took on when they made the HO trade (at least the last two years of the 3yr / 25 million). The 50 FV prospect represents the capital gains earned for Kemp's improvement with the Braves, which seems entirely fair.
 
chop2chip said:
Good analysis.

I think wRC+ is a better metric to use as a baseline here rather than WAR, since we are discussing two players that are obvious DH types (granted this ignores base running, but there isn't really a negligible difference between Beltran and Kemp in that department).

Beltran during 2016 pre-Texas trade had a 135 wRC+. Kemp has a 160 wRC+, though I expect this to be closer to Beltran's as the year moves along.

Still, I think Kemp has the better bat, so I would expect his trade value to be a little higher than Beltran. If the Braves kick in $16 million, that essentially represents the amount they took on when they made the HO trade (at least the last two years of the 3yr / 25 million). The 50 FV prospect represents the capital gains earned for Kemp's improvement with the Braves, which seems entirely fair.
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The 50 FV prospect would represent the contender's premium teams pay at the deadline.

Either way you slice it, I would be shocked if Coppy deals away Kemp for a fringe prospect and pays $15M to make it happen. The Braves truly think Kemp is good, and trading him wouldn't fit the "we want to win now" narrative they have bent over backwards to create.
 
thethe said:
Let's assume that Kemp is still posing 950+ by mid July. You still believe the Braves will have to pay to get rid of him?
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Who is signing up to pay him 21 million dollars the next two years?

I think most probably yes the braves are paying to get rid of him.
 
Enscheff said:
Again, find the last time an AL team traded for a full time DH. The Braves were the only team in baseball willing to pay him to play OF, which is why SD traded him to Atlanta. If literally anyone else wanted him, they could have had him.

We saw what no-glove sluggers got this offseason, and it was far less than what Kemp is owed. Kemp has, at best, zero trade value.
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The braves were the only team at the time willing to pay him the value of his contract (less money pitched in) to play of based on his numbers in San Diego.

Things can change, but they still will have to eat part of his contract that move him, I think, just like the last two teams.
 
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