So Where Are The Fits?

No. The Padres got $25 million in return for him. That's trade value, even if there really isn't a player attached to it.

I'm by no mean implying he has any surplus value (i.e., production value that exceeds his contract). I'm positing that the Braves should be in the position to spin him off to another team and eat less money than what they gave up for him at the time of the trade.

He's on our books for $42 million the next two years after 2017. There's no way the Braves could find a team who would eat that whole contract, but there's a chance they could find a team to eat half of it. Two years for 21 million for a .900 OPS DH is good value.

The padres said you can have Kemp and 30 million for nothing.

Yes they got salary relief but that's an odd way of contradicting the statement that they paid to get rid of him. They clearly did.
 
If the Braves were at all serious about unloading Kemp, the smart play would have been to have him learn 1B while Freddie was hurt in hopes of trading him to a team like the Astros that need a 1B upgrade. Instead, they made another "win now" move to get Adams who is hitting .244/.262/.512 (.774 OPS) with the Braves.
 
If the Braves were at all serious about unloading Kemp, the smart play would have been to have him learn 1B while Freddie was hurt in hopes of trading him to a team like the Astros that need a 1B upgrade. Instead, they made another "win now" move to get Adams who is hitting .244/.262/.512 (.774 OPS) with the Braves.

You are quick to toss numbers out that fit your narrative, but in same breath scream SSS when it doesn't.. And zero trade value would have been gained by Kemp trying to learn a new position for 2 months.
 
I don't feel like reading through all of this, but if anyone is saying that Kemp has trade value, Enscheff is right. He doesn't.
 
You are quick to toss numbers out that fit your narrative, but in same breath scream SSS when it doesn't.. And zero trade value would have been gained by Kemp trying to learn a new position for 2 months.

So you don't think an MLB OFer can learn to play 1B in 2 months?

His value would not have risen much, but the number of potential suitors might have.
 
So you don't think an MLB OFer can learn to play 1B in 2 months?

His value would not have risen much, but the number of potential suitors might have.

Honestly, I think any player could play an adequate 1B. If I need an upgrade at first base, then I am not just looking for 1B.. I would look at a lot of OF/3B that are on the list.

That being said, who is to say they didn't try him at 1B and saw that it was not going to work. But I liked the out of the box thinking of moving him to 1B. I just don't agree that the pro would have been greater than the cons. You also have to worry about him taking the stress of a new position to the plate..
 
Good analysis.

I think wRC+ is a better metric to use as a baseline here rather than WAR, since we are discussing two players that are obvious DH types (granted this ignores base running, but there isn't really a negligible difference between Beltran and Kemp in that department).

Beltran during 2016 pre-Texas trade had a 135 wRC+. Kemp has a 160 wRC+, though I expect this to be closer to Beltran's as the year moves along.

Still, I think Kemp has the better bat, so I would expect his trade value to be a little higher than Beltran. If the Braves kick in $16 million, that essentially represents the amount they took on when they made the HO trade (at least the last two years of the 3yr / 25 million). The 50 FV prospect represents the capital gains earned for Kemp's improvement with the Braves, which seems entirely fair.

It should also be pointed out that along with being a better hitter, Kemp is considerably younger than Beltran and comes with less of an injury risk.

Not that I think Kemp holds much value, but the Beltran trade is probably a good benchmark.
 
Insider article on ESPN says the Yanks need 1B help (Adams) and a starter (Garcia?) and a RP (JJ, Viz). Maybe that is a partner. Maybe we can fill multiple needs for a better piece.

Sox could maybe use some infield help that is cheap.....

Indians.....Tehran if he plays well at all........maybe garcia.

Cubs........SP and reliever.
 
If Julio once again turns it around....they have to trade him. He is getting in the "more money" part of his contract after this year.
 
I think it's a big mistake we are not shopping Flowers. That seems like a potential piece where most teams could use an upgrade and we might get a real guy.
 
I think it's a big mistake we are not shopping Flowers. That seems like a potential piece where most teams could use an upgrade and we might get a real guy.

Totally agree, the guy is having a career season, is signed cheap for next year and could be a nice piece for a contender.
 
If Julio once again turns it around....they have to trade him. He is getting in the "more money" part of his contract after this year.

I don't think you can trade Julio this year, even if he starts to turn it around... teams are going to be too gunshy with him. I think we missed our chance.
 
Insider article on ESPN says the Yanks need 1B help (Adams) and a starter (Garcia?) and a RP (JJ, Viz). Maybe that is a partner. Maybe we can fill multiple needs for a better piece.

Sox could maybe use some infield help that is cheap.....

Indians.....Tehran if he plays well at all........maybe garcia.

Cubs........SP and reliever.

I really don't think Adams is going to get traded, I believe Coppy wants to hold onto him for next year's bench and depth in case something happens to Freeman again; and honestly I get that. I'm also sure if someone comes in and gives us a really good offer, he'll be gone, but I don't expect that to happen.
 
I don't feel like reading through all of this, but if anyone is saying that Kemp has trade value, Enscheff is right. He doesn't.

I think three pages of player valuation and trade speculation is amusing for a player who isn't going anywhere.

Particularly when the saber consensus is that he's worthless or close to it.

Serious question: of the players in the minors with the Braves right now, how many of them are capable of a .900 OPS for even a season at the ML level? Zero, or close to it.

The utter discounting of guys who have proven they can hit at the ML level in favor of prospects who have done jack **** at the MiLB level is an ongoing source of wonder to me.

It's like a reverse valuation thing on this board. For years, skills not measured or measured properly were overlooked or undervalued. Now we've got a guy who's been hitting the dog**** out of the ball since he got here nearly a season ago and people do their damnedest to diminish his value because their favored metrics say he's a poor defender.

I still think we're misvaluing defense. Corner outfield defense just isn't that important. Mark me: some day a metric system will make the same judgment and guys who play Bat will be valued for their bat, not negative valued for what they don't do.

Carry on.
 
I think three pages of player valuation and trade speculation is amusing for a player who isn't going anywhere.

Particularly when the saber consensus is that he's worthless or close to it.

Serious question: of the players in the minors with the Braves right now, how many of them are capable of a .900 OPS for even a season at the ML level? Zero, or close to it.

The utter discounting of guys who have proven they can hit at the ML level in favor of prospects who have done jack **** at the MiLB level is an ongoing source of wonder to me.

It's like a reverse valuation thing on this board. For years, skills not measured or measured properly were overlooked or undervalued. Now we've got a guy who's been hitting the dog**** out of the ball since he got here nearly a season ago and people do their damnedest to diminish his value because their favored metrics say he's a poor defender.

I still think we're misvaluing defense. Corner outfield defense just isn't that important. Mark me: some day a metric system will make the same judgment and guys who play Bat will be valued for their bat, not negative valued for what they don't do.

Carry on.

^^
 
I think three pages of player valuation and trade speculation is amusing for a player who isn't going anywhere.

Particularly when the saber consensus is that he's worthless or close to it.

Serious question: of the players in the minors with the Braves right now, how many of them are capable of a .900 OPS for even a season at the ML level? Zero, or close to it.

The utter discounting of guys who have proven they can hit at the ML level in favor of prospects who have done jack **** at the MiLB level is an ongoing source of wonder to me.

It's like a reverse valuation thing on this board. For years, skills not measured or measured properly were overlooked or undervalued. Now we've got a guy who's been hitting the dog**** out of the ball since he got here nearly a season ago and people do their damnedest to diminish his value because their favored metrics say he's a poor defender.

I still think we're misvaluing defense. Corner outfield defense just isn't that important. Mark me: some day a metric system will make the same judgment and guys who play Bat will be valued for their bat, not negative valued for what they don't do.



Carry on.

Current MLB GM's disagree. But I guess you want to go back to a world where Adam Dunn gets to play the field.
 
Mark me: some day a metric system will make the same judgment and guys who play Bat will be valued for their bat, not negative valued for what they don't do.

This just doesn't make sense, there is no way that is going to happen. Why? Because those guys do play defense. So regardless of what you brought them in to do primarily, they are still out there playing defense and can be compared in their value there to all other players who play defense. If a guy in the OF is converting batted balls into outs less frequently than another OF, that is lost value no matter what they do at the plate. Sure, that player can still be more valuable overall if his offense is better. But the lost defensive value still matters. Those are still outs you're not getting, runs you're giving up, and games decided.

It's like saying a DE who gets to the QB with ease but is a complete sieve against the run is just as valuable as a DE who does both well because they weren't brought in to stop the run. That may be true, but either way, if the opposing team chooses to run on you and one guy can stop it better than the other, he is providing more value.
 
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