Official pre-Draft thread

[Enscheff]

Aside from speed where is Lewis better than Hasley? Hasley has the better arm, projects to better defensively, probably has more power and just as good of a hit tool, and he's performed ata higher level.

Everything I've seen with Lewis has his arm and defense pretty average

Because Haseley is already 21 years old in college, and Lewis is 18 and in HS. When Lewis is 21 he should be better in every single category than Haseley is now.

If the Braves don't come away with one of Gore, Lewis, Beck or Adell it means they didn't go BPA in hopes of signing the #5 pick cheaply enough to go over slot at #41. I really hope that doesn't happen.

 

[nsacpi]

Because Haseley is already 21 years old in college, and Lewis is 18 and in HS. When Lewis is 21 he should be better in every single category than Haseley is now.

If the Braves don't come away with one of Gore, Lewis, Beck or Adell it means they didn't go BPA in hopes of signing the #5 pick cheaply enough to go over slot at #41. I really hope that doesn't happen.

the other thing is the upside for Lewis includes the possibility he can stick at short

 

[Preacher]

Because Haseley is already 21 years old in college, and Lewis is 18 and in HS. When Lewis is 21 he should be better in every single category than Haseley is now.

If the Braves don't come away with one of Gore, Lewis, Beck or Adell it means they didn't go BPA in hopes of signing the #5 pick cheaply enough to go over slot at #41. I really hope that doesn't happen.

You're creating a narrative that doesn't exist, literally none of the experts out there would consider Adell to be BPA at #5. Most have started rating Hasley ahead of both those guys. Adell especially has major question marks about his hit tool. That's kinda important at as an OF picked #5.

 

[smootness]

The upside thing is definitely nice, and Lewis still has plenty of it. I definitely agree Adell and Beck have more, but I also think it's irresponsible for the front office to look ONLY at upside. From all accounts, Lewis has a much more realistic chance of hitting his ceiling compared to two HS OFs that already have serious swing and miss concerns against high school pitching. There's value in that, too.

Lewis has above average bat speed, no significant swing and miss concerns that I've read, and the swing that allow people to think he'll be able to hit 20 homers per year.

I'm just struggling to talk myself into guys like Adell and Beck when they struggle to make contact against high school pitchers.

Eh, that's hyperbole. There are reports that Beck has swung over the top of some breaking balls, and Adell did have some contact concerns coming into this year, but by all accounts Adell has done a lot to rectify that, and any HS hitter struggling to make contact consistently would find himself nowhere near the top 10.

Lewis himself has had reports that his swing has gotten long at times and he's been overly aggressive, so it's not like he has some super safe profile. Maybe the risk is lower than it is with Beck and Adell, which is why he's ranked higher by everybody, but for me personally, it isn't enough to warrant taking him over the upside of the OFs.

 

[Preacher]

Eh, that's hyperbole. There are reports that Beck has swung over the top of some breaking balls, and Adell did have some contact concerns coming into this year, but by all accounts Adell has done a lot to rectify that, and any HS hitter struggling to make contact consistently would find himself nowhere near the top 10.

Lewis himself has had reports that his swing has gotten long at times and he's been overly aggressive, so it's not like he has some super safe profile. Maybe the risk is lower than it is with Beck and Adell, which is why he's ranked higher by everybody, but for me personally, it isn't enough to warrant taking him over the upside of the OFs.

I think with most of this stuff the truth is in the middle, I mean the reason Adell isn't going in the top-5 with all his prodigious tools is because there are actual concerns apparently from scouts about his ability to hit.

If the hit tool wasn't a question, a guy with his tools might be 1-1 in this draft.

 

[CJ9]

Eh, that's hyperbole. There are reports that Beck has swung over the top of some breaking balls, and Adell did have some contact concerns coming into this year, but by all accounts Adell has done a lot to rectify that, and any HS hitter struggling to make contact consistently would find himself nowhere near the top 10.

Right, Beck is having trouble making contact against HS off-speed stuff. That scares me to death. If a guy is struggling to make contact at high school, why should we believe that's going to change in the pros?

Pipeline's latest on Adell:

Adell has the best all-around tools in the 2017 Draft, and his physical gifts have drawn comparisons to Byron Buxton and Melvin Upton Jr. Both of those players were drafted No. 2 overall, but Adell won't go nearly that high because of persistent concerns about his bat. Though he won the home run derby at the Area Code Games, he struggled at the plate for much of the summer showcase circuit, and he hasn't eased many worries this spring despite leading the nation's high school players with 25 homers and winning Gatorade's Kentucky player of the year award.

Adell's electric bat speed gives him huge raw power from the right side of the plate, but his propensity to swing and miss leads to questions about how much he'll be able to translate that pop into production. He has trouble catching up to average fastballs at times and must learn to recognize breaking pitches.

 

[smootness]

I think with most of this stuff the truth is in the middle, I mean the reason Adell isn't going in the top-5 with all his prodigious tools is because there are actual concerns apparently from scouts about his ability to hit.

If the hit tool wasn't a question, a guy with his tools might be 1-1 in this draft.

Sure. But he was also projected in the 20s not too long ago because of those concerns, but he's recently seen his stock tick back up and now just about everybody has him going #9 to Milwaukee. Obviously the past concerns are still a large reason why he's not higher, but he had an absolutely monster senior season.

 

[Preacher]

Maybe the Braves pick Adell or Beck at #5 and go underslot on them if the reports about their slides down draft boards are accurate?

Still holding out hope that Coppy can swing a trade for a comp pick.

 

[smootness]

Right, Beck is having trouble making contact against HS off-speed stuff. That scares me to death. If a guy is struggling to make contact at high school, why should we believe that's going to change in the pros?

Pipeline's latest on Adell:

Adell has the best all-around tools in the 2017 Draft, and his physical gifts have drawn comparisons to Byron Buxton and Melvin Upton Jr. Both of those players were drafted No. 2 overall, but Adell won't go nearly that high because of persistent concerns about his bat. Though he won the home run derby at the Area Code Games, he struggled at the plate for much of the summer showcase circuit, and he hasn't eased many worries this spring despite leading the nation's high school players with 25 homers and winning Gatorade's Kentucky player of the year award.

Adell's electric bat speed gives him huge raw power from the right side of the plate, but his propensity to swing and miss leads to questions about how much he'll be able to translate that pop into production. He has trouble catching up to average fastballs at times and must learn to recognize breaking pitches.

Eh, that write-up on Adell seems like it was mostly done a while back, and they just added that he hasn't eased worries this year. That clearly isn't true, since his stock has clearly ticked back up, so he definitely has eased at least some of those concerns. And I just have trouble believing that a guy who is having trouble catching up to average fastballs and recognizing breaking pitches is going to do what he did this year, even in high school.

 

[Preacher]

Eh, that write-up on Adell seems like it was mostly done a while back, and they just added that he hasn't eased worries this year. That clearly isn't true, since his stock has clearly ticked back up, so he definitely has eased at least some of those concerns. And I just have trouble believing that a guy who is having trouble catching up to average fastballs and recognizing breaking pitches is going to do what he did this year, even in high school.

Those aren't comments you see about other hitters mentioned that high.

Swinging for upside is great, but you also can't whiff on the #5 pick simply because you fall in love with the strongest/fastest guy.

People ignore floor too often in discussions like this. It's really not a bad thing IMO to get a guy with a slightly lower ceiling, but a much greater chance in reaching it

 

[CJ9]

People ignore floor too often in discussions like this. It's really not a bad thing IMO to get a guy with a slightly lower ceiling, but a much greater chance in reaching it

Exactly. This is my biggest thing in this conversation. Everyone falls in love with upside because we always think about what could be if Beck or Adell turn into 35+ homer guys, but what's the chance that actually happens with the massive flaws they have?

Lewis is much safer, but it's also not like we're talking about drafting Jason Hursh or Sean Gilmartin here. The ceiling is still really high.

 

[smootness]

Those aren't comments you see about other hitters mentioned that high.

Swinging for upside is great, but you also can't whiff on the #5 pick simply because you fall in love with the strongest/fastest guy.

People ignore floor too often in discussions like this. It's really not a bad thing IMO to get a guy with a slightly lower ceiling, but a much greater chance in reaching it

...which is why I'm pretty confident they are no longer concerns to the same degree they were, which is why I said that I'm pretty sure that is a scouting report done a while back to which they just added an updated line about this year not easing those worries. I don't buy that because he is back up into the top 10.

The reason I want upside is because we don't have the luxury of getting big-time hitters through any other realistic means. The draft is by far the easiest way to add those guys, so when we have a top 5 pick, I want us swinging for the fences. You can find 2-3 WAR guys a lot more easily than you can the 5+ guys. We're not going to sign those guys in FA, and it's extremely hard to trade for them.

 

[smootness]

Exactly. This is my biggest thing in this conversation. Everyone falls in love with upside because we always think about what could be if Beck or Adell turn into 35+ homer guys, but what's the chance that actually happens with the massive flaws they have?

Lewis is much safer, but it's also not like we're talking about drafting Jason Hursh or Sean Gilmartin here. The ceiling is still really high.

Again, you're overstating the concerns here. There is at least a pretty decent chance they become very good players...as they're both top 10 guys. They have flaws, as most do, but to call them massive is a huge stretch. A guy with massive swing-and-miss concerns falls at least to the back end of the 1st round.

 

[Preacher]

Exactly. This is my biggest thing in this conversation. Everyone falls in love with upside because we always think about what could be if Beck or Adell turn into 35+ homer guys, but what's the chance that actually happens with the massive flaws they have?

Lewis is much safer, but it's also not like we're talking about drafting Jason Hursh or Sean Gilmartin here. The ceiling is still really high.

And that's exactly the reason I like Haseley, not the same upside as others although his is still very high, but seems like a much safer bet to reach his.

 

[CJ9]

Again, you're overstating the concerns here. There is at least a pretty decent chance they become very good players...as they're both top 10 guys. They have flaws, as most do, but to call them massive is a huge stretch. A guy with massive swing-and-miss concerns falls at least to the back end of the 1st round.

I don't know what to say if you think Adell's swing and miss concerns aren't large. You just brushed off the scouting report from one of the more credible draft publications on Adell because you think it might not be updated when they just updated it over the weekend, so I'm not sure what reports we are allowed to take serious anymore.

 

[smootness]

I don't know what to say if you think Adell's swing and miss concerns aren't large. You just brushed off the scouting report from one of the more credible draft publications on Adell because you think it might not be updated when they just updated it over the weekend, so I'm not sure what reports we are allowed to take serious anymore.

The bottom line is that if he had not eased the swing-and-miss concerns this year, his stock would have fallen even further down. Instead, it has rebounded and brought him up inside the top 10. You can take from that what you want.

 

[praeceps93]

Went to a recent private workout that Beck had with the Pirates against an extended spring training guy (didn't catch the name). I'm not a scout, so feel free to ignore me, but I was with my scout friend. Really cool experience, as an aside. But anyway, don't really see the swing-and-miss concern. Quick hands, good bat angle through the zone. Hands are a little too loud which can throw off his balance, but that's easily fixable (and my scout friend agrees with me). Talked to his coach about the swing-and-miss on breaking balls, and he said it tended to happen in RISP situations where Beck wanted to do too much. Lots of good weight transfer with the lower body, projects to add quite a bit of power through straight mechanics. Comp we came up with was Clint Frazier. Take from that what you will.

 

[clvclv]

The 500 is out...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/

 

[clvclv]

While he wouldn't seem to make sense, I kinda wonder if Evan Skoug couldn't quietly be a target in the 2nd round. We haven't seemed to have any luck at all drafting guys who can stick behind the plate that we hope we can teach to hit. Jackson, Cumberland, and Skoug would certainly give you guys that can hit that could eventually be pretty good if you could make them pretty good framers and pair them with a really good defensive catch-and-throw guy in tough situations when needed.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Because Haseley is already 21 years old in college, and Lewis is 18 and in HS. When Lewis is 21 he should be better in every single category than Haseley is now.

If the Braves don't come away with one of Gore, Lewis, Beck or Adell it means they didn't go BPA in hopes of signing the #5 pick cheaply enough to go over slot at #41. I really hope that doesn't happen.

how is Haseley an under slot pick and Beck and Adell are BPA. Haseley is in the top 10 on most every board.. Adell is 21 on MLB and Beck is lower on BA. Plus many mock drafts have Haseley going before either of Beck or Adell... I think Gore/Lewis/Haseley/Adell/Beck are all BPA type picks. Just because you don't like him doesn't make your narrative correct.