So Where Are The Fits?

[Preacher]

I worry that Coppy is sometimes too concerned with the day-to-day product on the field and doesn't always look at the bigger picture.

There's obvious guys to trade, one year left on their deal type veterans like Brandon Phillips, Suzuki, Colon, Motte, and Garcia. I'm guessing all of those guys are dealt if we can get decent value for them.

Then there's guys that (if the return is solid) should be traded, but might not because the organization at times can't seem to have a 20,000 foot view of where we are at.
Flowers, Adams and Markakis don't have value for us long-term. They aren't going to be here when we are ready to compete, if you can get pieces for those guys - it should happen.

 

[thewupk]

I think I'd rather have a club with a mix of Gardners and Dunns and that I would win more. All WARs are not created equal. Which is why Heyward only got $23m/yr from the Cubs instead of the $44m/yr his last two years of WAR suggested. I've seen guys try and do all sorts of gymnastics to explain this disparity, and basically it comes down to the vast majority of teams weighting the components differently from the formula - or just doing their own thing.

I'm sure a platoon of Jeff Francoeur and Kelly Johnson would be of fairly similar WAR value to our current left fielder. For me, I'll take the .900 OPS and adequate at best D in LF. That doesn't mean I want a team full of that guy. Inciarte is awesome in CF.

And why Matt Kemp is more valuable on a team with modest hitting than his WAR count suggests.

All WAR is created equal even if they aren't paid the same on the open market for a variety of reasons. Kemp is a below avg player whether you like it or not with a bad contract. If he wasn't it wouldn't of taken a toxic asset like HO to get him.

 

[TheBravos]

Logic doesn't always rule the day come the trade deadline, teams get antsy to add a piece and often overpay.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Braves wanted to move Adams if they were able to land a really intruiging piece, not a top-100 guy; but a guy with that type of potential -- maybe coming off injury or a down season. Its really not hard to go look back at previous deadline deals and say 'how did team A get that from Team B for a bench player/reliever'. It happens a lot.

Of course....look what we gave up for TD at the deadline?? Adams really can't play outfield and will never get in the game outside of pitch hitting. He can be a tad bit above average at a everyday starter because of his power. It all depends on how many have the need and who is available. He could be the best available option. In that case...pretty valuable. Especially if he can keep raking before the deadline. I seems like we could have a better fit for a bench player.

 

[Preacher]

All WAR is created equal even if they aren't paid the same on the open market for a variety of reasons. Kemp is a below avg player whether you like it or not with a bad contract. If he wasn't it wouldn't of taken a toxic asset like HO to get him.

Kemp isn't a below average player though, not this version of him, that feels as off-base as calling him a great player.

 

[thewupk]

Kemp isn't a below average player though, not this version of him, that feels as off-base as calling him a great player.

He has been below average for 2013-2016. He hasn't been below average for the first two months of 2017. I have my doubts he reaches 2 WAR at the end of the ye

 

[Russ2dollas]

All WAR is created equal even if they aren't paid the same on the open market for a variety of reasons. Kemp is a below avg player whether you like it or not with a bad contract. If he wasn't it wouldn't of taken a toxic asset like HO to get him.

all war is not equal.

WAR for defense relies heavily, almost totally, on range for regular position players. You can cheat the system with positional data/shifts. You can also have pitchers who strike more ppl out or specialize in ground balls to hide an OF. IF you have a guy who mashes and you can use positioning to improve him it works. If everything was equal we'd have teams playing 3 CFs and 4 SS.

It's still harder to find someone who can really hit than it is to find someone who can really field.

And for the big boppers not getting as much money, that's not all defense either. It's teams valuing OBP more. Trumbo has had an OBP of 300 +/- 20 almost his entire career. Often times under 300. That is not good.

 

[thewupk]

all war is not equal.

WAR for defense relies heavily, almost totally, on range for regular position players. You can cheat the system with positional data/shifts. You can also have pitchers who strike more ppl out or specialize in ground balls to hide an OF. IF you have a guy who mashes and you can use positioning to improve him it works. If everything was equal we'd have teams playing 3 CFs and 4 SS.

It's still harder to find someone who can really hit than it is to find someone who can really field.

And for the big boppers not getting as much money, that's not all defense either. It's teams valuing OBP more. Trumbo has had an OBP of 300 +/- 20 almost his entire career. Often times under 300. That is not good.

Except quality defensive SS and CF generally can't hit that well and offense is way more important in terms of overall WAR so I doubt that is going to happen anytime soon.

You are right that teams value OBP more than SLG these days as they rightly should. However a guy like Trumbo who hit 40 bombs with a 120 WRC+ season offensively would not have gotten less than an average player 10-15 years ago. These plus offensive but defensive liabilities are getting paid what their WAR suggests they are. Below average players.

 

[Enscheff]

All WAR is created equal even if they aren't paid the same on the open market for a variety of reasons. Kemp is a below avg player whether you like it or not with a bad contract. If he wasn't it wouldn't of taken a toxic asset like HO to get him.

Anyone could have had Kemp. The best SD could do was trade him for a wife beater that they immediately released and ate tens of millions of dollars doing so.

If that doesn't tell folks all they need to now about Kemp's value...nothing anyone can ever show them will change their mind.

Kemp was acquired to appease the casual ignorant fan base, and it is working perfectly...as evidenced by the Kemp supporters on this message board. They see him near the top of the NL in BA, and a nice HR total next to his name, and that's all they need to know. I bet Frenchy thinks Kemp is amazing too.

 

[thewupk]

Anyone could have had Kemp. The best SD could do was trade him for a wife beater that they immediately released and ate tens of millions of dollars doing so.

If that doesn't tell folks all they need to now about Kemp's value...nothing anyone can ever show them will change their mind. Kemp was acquired to appease the casual ignorant fan base, and it is working perfectly...as evidenced by the Kemp supporters on this message board.

Also should be noted that Kemp's cost to the Braves is something like an additional 9 million a year over what they were paying HO. Or about the value of a 1 WAR player.

 

[Russ2dollas]

Anyone could have had Kemp. The best SD could do was trade him for a wife beater that they immediately released and ate tens of millions of dollars doing so.

If that doesn't tell folks all they need to now about Kemp's value...nothing anyone can ever show them will change their mind.

Kemp was acquired to appease the casual ignorant fan base, and it is working perfectly...as evidenced by the Kemp supporters on this message board. They see him near the top of the NL in BA, and a nice HR total next to his name, and that's all they need to know. I bet Frenchy thinks Kemp is amazing too.

But Kemp is better than he was in SD. His OBPs in SD were mid to high 260s. In Atlanta it was 336 last year and now is a babip fueled 360 plus. Slugging is up a little. He seems to give a $hit.

I don't see how he's not a better asset now. I'm not saying he is amazing. I'm not ignoring that he moves like he has a small piano on his back. I'm not ignoring that he's playing in a hitter's park with a high babip. But he is getting on base more and doing better slugging while doing it. He was considered a malcontent at best and a locker room issue at worst in SD. That is not the issue now. Maybe teams would be scared he'd go back to the SD Kemp attitude if dealt from Atlanta.

 

[Preacher]

Also should be noted that Kemp's cost to the Braves is something like an additional 9 million a year over what they were paying HO. Or about the value of a 1 WAR player.

very true.

 

[Enscheff]

Also should be noted that Kemp's cost to the Braves is something like an additional 9 million a year over what they were paying HO. Or about the value of a 1 WAR player.

I fully understand what Kemp's "cost" to the Braves is/was. The very fact the Braves "won" the Kemp bidding means they were willing to pay more than anyone else. A few months of improved offensive production doesn't change that value in any meaningful way.

 

[Russ2dollas]

Except quality defensive SS and CF generally can't hit that well and offense is way more important in terms of overall WAR so I doubt that is going to happen anytime soon.

You are right that teams value OBP more than SLG these days as they rightly should. However a guy like Trumbo who hit 40 bombs with a 120 WRC+ season offensively would not have gotten less than an average player 10-15 years ago. These plus offensive but defensive liabilities are getting paid what their WAR suggests they are. Below average players.

in his walk year his wrc+ was only 97. the 120 was the year before and it was by far his best. The year before 120 it was 107.

I grant you he would have gotten paid more. Chris Carter hit 41 bombs and would have been the top $ guy 20 years ago.

But you put that all on these guy's defense. It's not. The 222 batting avg and 320 OBP are impacting carter much more than defense. If they were around 400 OBPs like Miggy then people would pay them and deal with the negative defense like they do with Miggy.

 

[thewupk]

I fully understand what Kemp's "cost" to the Braves is/was. The very fact the Braves "won" the Kemp bidding means they were willing to pay more than anyone else. A few months of improved offensive production doesn't change that value in any meaningful way.

Oh I agree. Just noting for others that don't understand that's essentially what the Braves and likely other teams view Kemp as.

 

[Russ2dollas]

I fully understand what Kemp's "cost" to the Braves is/was. The very fact the Braves "won" the Kemp bidding means they were willing to pay more than anyone else. A few months of improved offensive production doesn't change that value in any meaningful way.

of course it does. Why is Quintana's value down? You told us all offseason how genius the White Sox were. They had a Sale price on Quintana and now everyone says his trade value is way down based on a few months of bad performance.

 

[Southcack77]

I think I'd rather have a club with a mix of Gardners and Dunns and that I would win more. All WARs are not created equal. Which is why Heyward only got $23m/yr from the Cubs instead of the $44m/yr his last two years of WAR suggested. I've seen guys try and do all sorts of gymnastics to explain this disparity, and basically it comes down to the vast majority of teams weighting the components differently from the formula - or just doing their own thing.

I'm sure a platoon of Jeff Francoeur and Kelly Johnson would be of fairly similar WAR value to our current left fielder. For me, I'll take the .900 OPS and adequate at best D in LF. That doesn't mean I want a team full of that guy. Inciarte is awesome in CF.

And why Matt Kemp is more valuable on a team with modest hitting than his WAR count suggests.

I guess if you are compiling a list of the objectively best players in baseball you might really want to consider someone's ability to play CF.

If you are filling out a roster of a team, you don't really care how your LF would do in CF. You only care what his defense would be in LF. If he creates more runs than he sacrifices defensively in LF then you might consider playing him there. Of course, you are considering his defense in LF as opposed to the other options in LF, but it's going to matter a lot less than it would somewhere else.

Even so, Kemp sorted against other LFs still is a top 10 LF by fWar.

Difference between ranking players and assembling rosters.

 

[Enscheff]

But Kemp is better than he was in SD. His OBPs in SD were mid to high 260s. In Atlanta it was 336 last year and now is a babip fueled 360 plus. Slugging is up a little. He seems to give a $hit.

I don't see how he's not a better asset now. I'm not saying he is amazing. I'm not ignoring that he moves like he has a small piano on his back. I'm not ignoring that he's playing in a hitter's park with a high babip. But he is getting on base more and doing better slugging while doing it. He was considered a malcontent at best and a locker room issue at worst in SD. That is not the issue now. Maybe teams would be scared he'd go back to the SD Kemp attitude if dealt from Atlanta.

So by that logic (Kemp is better because he likes playing in Atlanta), he hasn't increased his value in any way. If you are going to be consistent with that line of logic, Kemp will revert to being a worse player if traded away from the Braves.

Kemp is being paid like a 1+ win player (after subtracting HO's contract), and he is on pace to produce 1.8 WAR. His WAR has gone backwards over the last few weeks as his BABIP normalizes and his defense continues to be awful, so even that below-average pace is likely unsustainable.

Kemp is not valuable. No team will be looking to acquire him unless the Braves decide to simply unload him by eating a large portion of his salary (the amount they have to assume has already been discussed on this board). I find it highly unlikely the Braves will pay to unload a guy they acquired for the sole reason of making it appear as if they are trying to compete.

 

[Russ2dollas]

So by that logic (Kemp is better because he likes playing in Atlanta), he hasn't increased his value in any way. If you are going to be consistent with that line of logic, Kemp will revert to being a worse player if traded away from the Braves.

Kemp is being paid like a 1+ win player (after subtracting HO's contract), and he is on pace to produce 1.8 WAR. His WAR has gone backwards over the last few weeks as his BABIP normalizes and his defense continues to be awful, so even that below-average pace is likely unsustainable.

Kemp is not valuable. No team will be looking to acquire him unless the Braves decide to simply unload him by eating a large portion of his salary (the amount they have to assume has already been discussed on this board). I find it highly unlikely the Braves will pay to unload a guy they acquired for the sole reason of making it appear as if they are trying to compete.

I don't think they will unload him. Not because of your reasoning but bc Coppy thinks he is good for the team.

I didn't say he is valuable. I said he is more valuable than was.

And I can see someone wanting him. When teams think they can win, they pay a premium. We might just be able to dump him on a Yankee team for a player to be named later. Even if we gave him away for nothing I would argue that is a large increase in value from SD who essentially gave him away for negative 30 million.

 

[Enscheff]

of course it does. Why is Quintana's value down? You told us all offseason how genius the White Sox were. They had a Sale price on Quintana and now everyone says his trade value is way down based on a few months of bad performance.

So you think a pitcher losing value is an equivalent scenario as a hitter gaining value, and those things happen at the same rate? Seriously?

 

[Enscheff]

I don't think they will unload him. Not because of your reasoning but bc Coppy thinks he is good for the team.

I didn't say he is valuable. I said he is more valuable than was.

And I can see someone wanting him. When teams think they can win, they pay a premium. We might just be able to dump him on a Yankee team for a player to be named later. Even if we gave him away for nothing I would argue that is a large increase in value from SD who essentially gave him away for negative 30 million.

Yes, you are correct. Kemp is now more valuable than he was at the time of acquisition. He is more valuable by about the amount the Braves have paid his salary over those few months...a little less negative.

Sig bet about him being traded this season?